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2014 Trading Thread 2014 Trading Thread

01-01-2015 , 11:45 AM
Finished very well after a huge rough patch early. Trading was up about 650%. In my long term non margin retirement account its +24%. Best of luck to everyone in 2015 as well.
2014 Trading Thread Quote
01-01-2015 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Going into 2015 with big bets on Canadian Solar & First Solar...hopefully it works out. We'll see.
What about Solar City? (SCTY)
2014 Trading Thread Quote
01-01-2015 , 07:40 PM
I have a small bet on Vivint Solar (VSLR), which is the same type of company (installer/financing company), with similar high growth, but trading at a lower price/sales multiple. To state the obvious, both are risky, volatile stocks where you are just as much betting on their financing model as you are on solar...so I'm reticent to bet big on them. As to Solarcity specifically, they're investing quite a bit into a ginormous manufacturing plant ($5 billion, equivalent to their market cap), and they've never been on the manufacturing side of the business before. So it could be a successful vertical integration once its completed in 2016 that increases their margins significantly --- or it could be a super expensive mistake. Nothing against SCTY, just not for me.

First Solar & Canadian Solar are both strictly manufacturing companies that straddle the consumer side & the utility-scale project side of the business. They have great balance sheets and should have very profitable 2015s. The share price collapse was precipitated by the energy sector flush out, which was due to oil prices plummeting.
2014 Trading Thread Quote
01-01-2015 , 10:21 PM
So in the next few quarters, is it worth while looking at companies who'd have a much better bottom line due to the drop in oil prices? I know the airlines already had a lot of their upside happen. I was wondering about manufacturing, or shipping like Fedex. I guess this shows a whole spectrum of industries that could stand to benefit, I was wondering which of those has the most upside. Then I could pair down companies I like based on other criteria:

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldm...prices-2014-11


Can there still be an edge there, or is that basically way too late?
2014 Trading Thread Quote
01-02-2015 , 12:18 AM
I can tell you that these oil dynamics made me bullish UPS and FedEx 4 months ago (in addition to names like DAL). I would estimate you are very much behind those of us who anticipated this. The value is pretty much in line with what I expected at this point. There is more value to be had though, I just can't quantity it for you. Honestly, as much as I know, domer2 might be a better source of knowledge for you. I'm flat basically everything.
2014 Trading Thread Quote
01-03-2015 , 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
A combination of equity & options bets on Yahoo (pre-BABA and again post-BABA) & King principally, with contributions from bets on GM, Ebay, and American Airlines. I posted pretty much everything in this thread iirc as I was making the bets.

Going into 2015 with big bets on Canadian Solar & First Solar...hopefully it works out. We'll see.
I really like CSIQ, got a big bet on them as well.
2014 Trading Thread Quote

      
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