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2014 Trading Thread 2014 Trading Thread

04-16-2014 , 01:21 AM
With you on that Myrna. I've come to believe that hedging is a fool's game.

As for the shorts, what you're seeing is still market effects on high beta. You get a robust turn and these will turn as well. It's not enough to have a crap company short thesis after this much selloff. CRM certainly doesn't qualify. You're basically holding a leveraged market bet at this point, with risk of rocketing on even slightly good news combined with a market turn (look at Twitter yesterday). I'm not sure you're +EV any more, at least not without a stop.

I'd only be holding shorts with deep long term pessimism at this point, or if you have a market downturn thesis. Far OOTM puts are probably the best way to bet on a continued slide now; the leverage covers the lowered probability that the slide continues.
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04-16-2014 , 01:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
I know the answer would probably be long. But whats the shorthanded reasoning behind this?
A market mood combined with the way the stock reacts to it. I should say that most of my trades are 5 min - 2 hour time spans, constantly watched, so they may not apply to most here as I don't think many trade on that time scale.
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04-16-2014 , 09:55 AM
The rally this week feels like a bear flag.

I sensed a sideways or slightly up week, which is why I wrote calls on my SDS last week. They probably won't fill tomorrow (at 30), and will be happy to keep my downside protection. Possibly will add to SDS as I wrote puts at 29 (currently 28.90).
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04-16-2014 , 10:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBiceps
The rally this week feels like a bear flag.

I sensed a sideways or slightly up week, which is why I wrote calls on my SDS last week. They probably won't fill tomorrow (at 30), and will be happy to keep my downside protection. Possibly will add to SDS as I wrote puts at 29 (currently 28.90).
yes, im not really buying this rally either.. i was fully expecting to have to cover most of my positions , CRM, APOL , GRPN , jpm, but none have showed any strength today ..

did cover 17 grpn apr 19 , 12 puts @ 5.10 though .. as they expire tomorrow
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04-16-2014 , 11:23 AM
Ford is stuck in this $1.50 trading channel, we have to break through $16.50. Intense bottom forming.
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04-16-2014 , 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
yes,, there was a time where i would hedge with an index or a correlated security against it but i realized that i would produce better returns just by going with my plays and spreading it out over different stocks instead of using 1/2-1/3 the buy power to hedge.
Makes sense. Good day for you so far...
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04-16-2014 , 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted by RaineTech
Their recent selloff was hardly anything. The financial services sector as a whole has been underperforming and they've followed pretty much the same trend as the XLF etf. This whole war against high frequency trading is going to really hurt charles schwab from a revenue perspective going forward. Not just in the revenue generated from the rebate system, but in potential fear from personal investors that don't know a lot who are becoming weary of what's happening with HFT. Playing this into earnings is a complete gamble imo and I honestly wouldn't be all that surprised to see it beat projections slightly and still move down tomorrow if the markets move down too.
Gamble gamble, up 6% buddy .
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04-16-2014 , 11:41 AM
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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Makes sense. Good day for you so far...
The fact that these stocks (other than crm) have failed to rally at all during this run up makes me want to stay short. I'm upset I missed out on interactive brokers on the long side . I had it penciled , but did not take action on it.

You guys have anything interesting for next week ?
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04-16-2014 , 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted by ASAP17
Thoughts on Akebia Therapeutics? Crazy upgrade by MS to $90 today, would mean ridiculous upside still ahead.
Up to $25 from $21 yesterday, yikes.
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04-16-2014 , 11:53 AM
Now maybe the time on AMZN, look at the charts... Thoughts? I'm just not sold on the market being done selling off.

EDIT: Took a position on a swing, $318 & change.

Last edited by ASAP17; 04-16-2014 at 12:20 PM.
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04-16-2014 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
The fact that these stocks (other than crm) have failed to rally at all during this run up makes me want to stay short. I'm upset I missed out on interactive brokers on the long side . I had it penciled , but did not take action on it.

You guys have anything interesting for next week ?
I have a trade show next week, so I'm not even looking...

FWIW, I'm not believing this rally either.
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04-16-2014 , 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Now maybe the time on AMZN, look at the charts... Thoughts? I'm just not sold on the market being done selling off.

EDIT: Took a position on a swing, $318 & change.
The chart on AMZN is very ugly. No indication of a bottom here.

1) It's not oversold

2) It can't even get above it's 10day moving avg. In fact the 10 day moving avg has been a brutal resistance area

3) There is still a distaste for high PE stocks out there.

That all said...I love the stock and earnings may change their current momentum. Also...the general market can possibly go from correction to uptrend within the next week so. If that happens it's good for AMZN too.

I do keep AMZN on my watchlist, but am focused on a support level of about 283-286 to start a position. GL.

edit: If you were dying to buy something today, I personally think adding to your F position is a much better play.
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04-16-2014 , 02:49 PM
Sold Schwab for 5.5+% gain, Amazon looks alright. Got a very tight range on my stop limit, likely in no longer than a week.
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04-16-2014 , 03:48 PM
bahhhh..


what i was hoping wouldnt happen ,, happened..

covered apol @ 27.30 , sold some options (may 37 @ 9.60)

covered crm @ 55.85 , still holding my large position in options since i did not get filled..

i think ibm misses , but i will wait ..
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04-16-2014 , 03:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
bahhhh..


what i was hoping wouldnt happen ,, happened..

covered apol @ 27.30 , sold some options (may 37 @ 9.60)

covered crm @ 55.85 , still holding my large position in options since i did not get filled..

i think ibm misses , but i will wait ..
Look at our old friend XONE...
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04-16-2014 , 03:56 PM
Another big squeeze into the close- the bears/shorts must be pulling their hair out
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04-16-2014 , 04:00 PM
Amazon closes $5 above where I bought it and to high of day, incredible.
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04-16-2014 , 04:04 PM
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Originally Posted by TheDempster
Another big squeeze into the close- the bears/shorts must be pulling their hair out
not cool at all ,, i have been laying off some of the positions,, crm is pissing me off,, so not worth the 9% i closed out on the stock so far..


i think with this low volume , we might rally tomorrow, which is why im expecting a rise.

but i think ibm will miss and so might goog ,, so maybe ill be ok tomorrow with all the orders that did not get filled..

either way ,, if i trade tomorrow ,, it wont be from nyc.. getting out of here for the weekend.
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04-16-2014 , 04:04 PM
Google down 5% AH, missed on both on top & bottom. Glad you didn't buy?
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04-16-2014 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
not cool at all ,, i have been laying off some of the positions,, crm is pissing me off,, so not worth the 9% i closed out on the stock so far..


i think with this low volume , we might rally tomorrow, which is why im expecting a rise.

but i think ibm will miss and so might goog ,, so maybe ill be ok tomorrow with all the orders that did not get filled..

either way ,, if i trade tomorrow ,, it wont be from nyc.. getting out of here for the weekend.

w/o a doubt this rally the last few days,has been accompanied by very low volume. And the $GOOG miss will definitely help your tech shorts

enjoy your holidays
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04-16-2014 , 04:09 PM
A swing and a miss for GOOGL...
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04-16-2014 , 04:10 PM
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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
A swing and a miss for GOOGL...
and an UGLY one at that.
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04-16-2014 , 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Look at our old friend XONE...
yeah, i was going over a list of stocks i want to go long , and that was there,, but i cant right now.. trying to get lighter now,, which i guess i could have by just going long xone and not covering parts of grpn , crm or apol , but i want to start almost fresh next tuesday ..
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04-16-2014 , 04:12 PM
Google is affecting more than just it's AH price, Amazon just shed all of those gains. WTF? Bizarre.
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04-16-2014 , 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by ASAP17
Google is affecting more than just it's AH price, Amazon just shed all of those gains. WTF? Bizarre.
It's hard to not troll but this is extremely standard
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