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You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool

01-31-2015 , 11:25 AM
Hi folks -
For what it's worth, I am delighted that the WSOP has decided to pay 1000 players. It's a move in the right direction, and away from massive top-heavy payouts. I'm not as concerned about the specific details, but long skinny payout tails make me happy. More importantly, I think they make more poker players happy and are overall much better for the community and the game.

Quote:
The idea that $8 million "should" go to 1st is a carryover from the extreme top heavy payouts from decades ago. [...]

You don't need $8 million, or $10 million to generate excitement. $5 million is plenty!
QFT.

Regards, Lee
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
01-31-2015 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Jones
You know what, that’s enough. $7 million is a life-changing sum of money for 99.999% of the population.
Everyone says this ITT, but why does second place need to be 5 million?

I say let the WSOP have it's $10 million for first and do it by reducing the prizes for the other final table positions (still keeping them all over 1 million). Much better to see people playing chip EV poker at the final table instead of folding up the pay ladder.

You don't need to go to this extreme but if you made the 2nd-9th a flat 1.25 million each and had $10 million for first you would have spare money to distribute round the rest of the other placings.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
01-31-2015 , 12:28 PM
It's not the monetary amount.

It's the % amount. We've already had massive changes to payout structure since the boom (Moneymaker 29%, Raymer 19%, everyone else has been less at around ~13.5%).

You say, why not cut first / 2nd / 3rd since it only affects 3 people. Last I checked, this is a competition, not a charity / communistic event. The top slots should get paid out heavily, they have worked for 6-7 days consecutive for 10-14 hours each day and when they reach the final table, they have to wait 4 months for them to restart play (a ridiculous idea that should be done away with), the WSOP/RIO adds NOTHING (maybe a few thousand, big whoop), to the prizepool and they are the benefactors of the side-show circus they call the November 9.

I see no reason why people who min-cash shouldn't just get back their money + plane/hotel/food cost back (~$12,500) since the majority of people that cash are happy just cashing.

Do I like that the WSOP is paying out ~15% of the field? Yes and no. Yes in that I hope it attracts more people to play the event and to enjoy themselves and have a nice story to tell to their peers for years. No if it affects the top slots.

WSOP has a pretty good idea with the direction of how they want to advertise this (1 million for FT!, 1k players cash!, 8 million up top!), but it should not come at the expense of people actively trying to win the event.



Also, you know what would make this a lot easier? Less rake. I haven't done the math on all the years, but on the 2 samples I have done (2005 and 2014) the rake has been 9400 + 600 (roughly. not exact, unsure why it's not an even amount, I'm sure some law/tax attorney will tell me).

Right now my payouts total 66.7 million (as is). If the rake was reduced by half (making it a 9700 + 300) the prize pool would be roughly ~65 million (given 6700 players). Which is 1.7 million off of my numbers. But we all know the Rio isn't going to reduce the rake. Or heaven forbid, let the sponsers who plaster their terrible advertising, put their money into the prize pool.



re:RedOak, I don't have excel, nor have any idea how to use it. Not to mention I've spent around ~4 hours doing this work-out math by hand off the seat of my pants. I am unsure what the ratios have to do with it.. As for the rest of your post, you're clearly insane. 40% of FT is LOW. So is 13% to winner. Every single year it's been 43.5-48% (some years higher), and the Lowest %prize for winner was around ~12%. Even if you wanted 10% to winner, that's 6.3 million (according to last years number prize pool). Anything less than 7 million to start is a joke and shouldn't be taken seriously.

Even at 7, 5, 3.5, 2.75, 2.25, 1.75, 1.5, 1.25, 1. That's 26 million. Out of 63 million prize pool, that's ~41.26% which might be the lowest % of FT payouts in history.

Last edited by everydaygrind; 01-31-2015 at 12:50 PM.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
01-31-2015 , 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by everydaygrind
40% of FT is LOW. So is 13% to winner. Every single year it's been 43.5-48% (some years higher), and the Lowest %prize for winner was around ~12%. Even if you wanted 10% to winner, that's 6.3 million (according to last years number prize pool). Anything less than 7 million to start is a joke and shouldn't be taken seriously.

Even at 7, 5, 3.5, 2.75, 2.25, 1.75, 1.5, 1.25, 1. That's 26 million. Out of 63 million prize pool, that's ~41.26% which might be the lowest % of FT payouts in history.
So all tournaments should have the same percentage of the prize pool go to the final table whether the tournament has 500 entrants or 8,000? I'm not going to get into all of the math myself, but on the basic level...

There were 839 entrants in 2003 (Moneymaker), so the final table was 1.07% of the field. It got 5.94M out of 7.8M. That's 76% of the prize pool, or a 71 to 1 ratio of prize pool percentage to field percentage at the final table.

Last year there were 6,683 entrants, so the final table was .13% of the field. It got about 28.5M out of 62.8M, or 45% of the prize pool. However, the ratio of prize pool percentage to field percentage at the final table was 346 to 1.

Looking at % of prize pool to the final table without accounting for field size is ridiculous. If they kept final table prize pool % constant, and ignored the field size, last year's final table would have been paid 47.7M, which means first would have been about 17M. That would be awful.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
01-31-2015 , 03:42 PM
cuse, thanks for ignoring that since 2005, the prize pool for winner is hovering over ~13.5% (Gold/Jacobson being a bit higher). Raymer was 19% and Moneymaker was 29%.

I'm not saying to go back to the pre-boom payouts, but keeping it as is (~13% for winner).

Also, the past 7 years has hovered around ~6500 in attendence numbers.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
01-31-2015 , 03:58 PM
Year Players Prizepool First place
2014 6683. 62825752. 10000000
2013 6352. 59714169. 8361570
2012 6598. 62031385. 8531853
2011 6865. 64540858. 8715638
2010 7319. 68799059. 8944310
2009 6494. 61043600. 8547042
2008 6844. 64431779. 9152416
2007 6358. 59784954. 8250000
2006 8773. 82512162. 12000000
2005 5619. 52818610. 7500000
2004 2576. 24224400. 5000000


53513 entrants from 07 to 14 = avg 6689.
70481 entrants from 04 to 14 = avg 6407

Take out year 8773 and 2576 (high and low)
59132 entrants = avg 6570

So a conservative estimate for 2015 would be 6500 entrants. A high expectation would be 6900-7000.

With the rake being 9400+600, we're talking a prize pool between ~61-~64.86 million. (7k players would be 65.8 million).

Let's say 61 million prize pool. Even if we drop winner% to 12%, that's still 7.32 million. So please. Anyone without a 7 in front of first, go redo your numbers because that is a terribly low% to 1st.

Edit, Also 61 million prize pool. 26 million to FT, that's 42.5% of prizepool which is still a low % number


27 million for FT:

8
5
3.5
2.75
2.25
1.75
1.5
1.25
1

26 million:

7.5 (or 7.25 or 7)
4.5 (or 4.75 or 5)
3.5
2.75
2.25
1.75
1.5
1.25
1

Last edited by everydaygrind; 01-31-2015 at 04:21 PM.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-01-2015 , 06:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyD1321
They decided to go with 15% payout. 1,000 places officially guaranteed, as long as the field is 5000. Bubble should burst during day 3 now.
I feel a little more comfortable burning 10k on a donkament.

http://www.wsop.com/news/2015/Jan/51...ut-Change.html
Based on the info above, here is virtually the exact full payout you can expect to see for 2015 WSOP main if we have the same number of entries as last year:



I also show what 2014 paid when they had $10 million to 1st. And I show what a "normal" payout would be with
1) 6683 entries
2) $8 million for 1st
3) 1000 places paid
4) $15,000 min cash

Kudos to WSOP for listening to player suggestions and dropping the $10 mil for 1st and expanding payouts to 1,000 places and $1 Mil+ for each of November 9.

Personally, I would like the $8 mil for 1st shaved to $5 mil but I will save that for another post.

RedOak

Last edited by RedOak; 02-01-2015 at 06:21 AM.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-01-2015 , 07:45 AM
^
Im pretty satisfied with the new payout.
However, they could lower the mincash to 14k, and redistribute it among 10th to 18th to get rid of the unusually large gap between 9th and 10th place.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-01-2015 , 08:06 AM
I personally believe that paying the entire final table $1M is unnecessary. The awkward bubble between 9th and 10th seems to me as a bigger drawback than any positive I can see with such a payout. I prefer RedOak's "normal" 2015 payout to the 2015 estimate.

Even if I'm not in the market for a $10K, I still think that paying 1000 players and making the mincash $15K are both improvements, though.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-01-2015 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyD1321
^
Im pretty satisfied with the new payout.
However, they could lower the mincash to 14k, and redistribute it among 10th to 18th to get rid of the unusually large gap between 9th and 10th place.

Since paying the top 9 each a million or more is "unnatural", something has to give. In this case, it is the big gap between 9th-10th. But since it is only a 2.69% drop off from what it would have paid vs. last year, I am ok with that.
It will give the big stacks with heart some power to get some more chips from the short stacks on the final table bubble, or get in trouble doing so! So that might make for some exciting play with 12 left!

I think paying 12.5% of the field and 2x min cash is closer to ideal, but I am perfectly happy with 15% paid and 1.5x min cash as a compromise. I would like to see 15% of the field paid this way in this year's casino employees event, the seniors events, and the ladies events as well. If it is well received, then evently make all events pay 15% in this manner.

RedOak
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-01-2015 , 01:15 PM
I sort of like RedOak's payouts (except for his comment about 1st which is ridiculous), but I would like 2nd paid more (Either 5 or 5.25)

I am going to heavily disagree with a 2x min-cash being ideal for an event such as the WSOP ME where the majority of players satellite in.

Also, I am befuddled by the small increase from 694 to 693. This is the sort of insanity that doesn't make any logical sense.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-01-2015 , 04:48 PM
I think I've absolutely nailed it tbh.
[x] Pays 1000 players
[x] Every November Niner is a millionaire
[x] No stupid jump from 10th-9th
[x] Every single pay jump is equivalent or larger than the one before it
[x] Final 100 all gauranteed >$100,000
Only catch is that this payout is ideal for ~7270 runners
Im not certain what the rake is, so the caulculations are based $9700 going to the prize pool




TOTAL PAYOUTS = $70,556,500
~7273 runners

FWIW, I dont like the whole millionaire for the entire FT thing...it makes it much harder to allocate the money sensibly, but hey I guess it makes for good headlines

Last edited by jawong2000; 02-01-2015 at 05:01 PM.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-02-2015 , 01:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyD1321
They decided to go with 15% payout. 1,000 places officially guaranteed, as long as the field is 5000. Bubble should burst during day 3 now.
I feel a little more comfortable burning 10k on a donkament.

http://www.wsop.com/news/2015/Jan/51...ut-Change.html
I adjusted the "normal" wsop payout to reflect approximately what 1st would pay with 6683 entries so you can see how much they cut to get it down to 8 mil so they could pay top 9 each 1 mil or more and pay 1,000 places, and 15k for a min cash.



Note only 8 places pay less and 685 pay more by paying final 9 each 1 million or more. Note 2nd also takes the biggest hit again. Cutting 1st to 7.5 mil would have been more consistent as it would be a 13% drop from "normal" and it would then make the 7.5/4.6 mil ratio from 1st to 2nd back to the "normal" wsop 1.61-1 ratio. It is over 1.71-1 as it stands now.

RedOak
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-02-2015 , 02:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jawong2000
I think I've absolutely nailed it tbh.
[x] Pays 1000 players
[x] Every November Niner is a millionaire
[x] No stupid jump from 10th-9th
[x] Every single pay jump is equivalent or larger than the one before it
[x] Final 100 all gauranteed >$100,000
Only catch is that this payout is ideal for ~7270 runners
Im not certain what the rake is, so the caulculations are based $9700 going to the prize pool




TOTAL PAYOUTS = $70,556,500
~7273 runners

FWIW, I dont like the whole millionaire for the entire FT thing...it makes it much harder to allocate the money sensibly, but hey I guess it makes for good headlines
I like the lower amount paid to 1st and the better payouts for those that finish 73rd -216th. Note that the rake is $600 not $300, so you need to take out $2,181,900 from the payouts. The pay brackets dont match up with the traditional WSOP, but having smaller brackets seems reasonable. Nice work.
RedOak
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-02-2015 , 02:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jawong2000
I think I've absolutely nailed it tbh.
[x] Pays 1000 players
[x] Every November Niner is a millionaire
[x] No stupid jump from 10th-9th
[x] Every single pay jump is equivalent or larger than the one before it
[x] Final 100 all gauranteed >$100,000
Only catch is that this payout is ideal for ~7270 runners
Im not certain what the rake is, so the caulculations are based $9700 going to the prize pool


TOTAL PAYOUTS = $70,556,500
~7273 runners

FWIW, I dont like the whole millionaire for the entire FT thing...it makes it much harder to allocate the money sensibly, but hey I guess it makes for good headlines

So many errors.

1) Rake is 9400+600. Not 9700+300
2) Estimating 7273 runners. An insanely high estimate.
3) 9% for first. A stupid low amount
4) 16k for mincash. Too high.

Edit: I will say this. Anyone expecting 7k runners is either mistaken *(unless online poker gets legalized)* and for 7k runners, first should be 8 million, MINIMUM. Such a joke how you expect the WINNER of the event to get hosed and run a charity event for the other 999 players.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-02-2015 , 03:21 AM
^I can see where youre coming from, gonna tweak the payouts when I get home tonight, but like RedOaks and LeeJones, definitely in favour of a lower % to 1st especially in a field of ~6800
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-02-2015 , 06:39 AM
New payouts based on 6893@9400$ each.
Still same old FT millionaire guarantee and 999 places paid

You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-02-2015 , 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jawong2000
^I can see where youre coming from, gonna tweak the payouts when I get home tonight, but like RedOaks and LeeJones, definitely in favour of a lower % to 1st especially in a field of ~6800
Even knowing the fact that the last 7 years, the mincash has been 2x the payout with 10% paying out and the winner getting ~13% of the prize-pool?

No disrespect to Lee or RedOak, but anyone suggesting a lesser % payment for first is out of their mind.

Especially suggesting a number that's less than 10%. That's just absurd and insulting.

Edit: Your newest structure (in post #142) is better, but still first and 2nd needs a pay jump. 6893 is 200 more than last year, while not unthinkable, is being a bit optimistic. I don't think a 6900 number is out of the realm of possibility though. However, I would still bump first to 8 million (less than 12.5% of prize pool) and 5.25 million to 2nd. (So need 1.95 million more)

Suggestions to be made to "find" this lost money?

3rd makes 50k less (3.75)
6th makes 50k less (2 mill)
684 - 810 makes 750 less (-95,250 saved)
603 - 683 makes 1500 less (-121,500 saved)
495 - 548 makes 1000 less (-54,000 saved)
449 - 405 makes 1750 less (-78,750 saved)
404 - 369 makes 3500 less (-126,000 saved)
333 - 368 makes 500 less (-18,000 saved)
307 - 332 makes 2750 less (-71,500 saved)

So far I'm at 665k cut off. Need to cut off another 1285k.

But you see where I am going with this. Min-cashing / 2nd payment / 3rd payment taking less and 1st/2nd places paying more.

Also with my changes to FT, this payout is equal to 28.45 / 64.7942 = 43.90825% of the prize pool.

Last edited by everydaygrind; 02-02-2015 at 10:01 AM.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-03-2015 , 05:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by everydaygrind
Even knowing the fact that the last 7 years, the mincash has been 2x the payout with 10% paying out and the winner getting ~13% of the prize-pool?

No disrespect to Lee or RedOak, but anyone suggesting a lesser % payment for first is out of their mind.

Especially suggesting a number that's less than 10%. That's just absurd and insulting.
everydaygrind, I respect the passion you have for your position that 1st should be higher, but I am curious why you feel so strongly about it? Are you a top flight pro who feels will be hurt with a flatter payout? Do you stake a large number of players?

I feel equally passionate that 1st should be significantly lower than current levels for a wide host of reasons. Below I show what my ideal payout would be based on last year's 6683 entries, and paying 1000 places. I show what the WSOP would likely have paid if they did not have the 10 mil for 1st last year.

I also show what the payouts would be if the WSOP followed the prorated payouts adjusted for field size for the Indy 500, Wimbledon Tennis, the US Open Golf and if winner was paid based on skill alone and not luck.

In the case of the Indy 500, they have 33 entries and 1st pays 17.5% of the prize pool. Using a log formula this is prorated out to only 1.24% being paid to 1st if there were 6683 entries in the race.

For Wimbledon, the prorated log formula results in only 4.6% being paid to 1st if there were 6683 players, and it would be 5.04% if using the US Open golf payouts. These are all well under the 13.85% of the 8.69 million the WSOP would have paid. My ideal payout of 5.3 mil or 8.49% of the pool is still much larger than the other major sporting events.

This brings us to the payout based on skill. How much of winning a tournament is based on skill vs luck? Shouldn't skill be rewarded and luck punished? With a top heavy payout, luck is rewarded. Ask anyone who makes a final table and they will tell you of the many times they got lucky to survive. So why not pay based on skill instead of luck?

To do this I found a way to determine the percentage of luck vs skill in a tournament. Assume you were dealt AA. You would love to be able to shove preflop with that and get a call. Against any lesser likely calling hand you would be about an 80% to 20% favorite. With a field size of 6683 players this means you would have to double up 12.706 times. (2^12.706=6683).
So the chance of you winning by shoving with AA every time is 0.80^12.706=.0587. Thus winning a 6683 player event would be 5.87% skill and 94.13% luck. ( you would win once every 17 years). Thus why not pay 1st 5.87% of the pool or 3.687 million? Even this number is more than the US Open golf and Wimbledon. So it could easily be argued my 5.3 mil "idea" is still too high as well!

The long history of top heavy payouts in tournament poker has conditioned most people to think that is the normal way it should be. But the reality is that even cutting 1st by 50% is STILL above normal as shown by payouts in every other large field major sporting events.

Here is the percentage paid to 1st based on skill for different field sizes:


Below I show my ideal payout based on 6683 player field. (Note only 9 spots pay less and 991 pay more or the same vs WSOP "normal") I would actually pay 15% of the field so I would pay 1002 spots instead of 1000. (not shown below though for simplicity) Also, I added a couple of levels at the bottom so that once the top 10% get hit near 693rd place, it will begin to pay 2x the buyin. Not shown is the tax saving my flatter payout would save... over $2,000,000 or $2,000 per cashing player due to lower marginal rates. The over 3 million drop I propose for 1st is really only a 2 million drop after taxes. And instead of being taxed at 39.6% for the winner, it is only taxed at 10% by giving it to the min cashers. That alone saves almost $900,000 in taxes that can then be recycled into the poker economy.

I will follow up later with my ideal payout based on paying $1 million or more to everyone at the final table. (which I think is fine for the main event only)

RedOak


RedOak
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-03-2015 , 11:02 AM
First one out takes the whole pool...
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-03-2015 , 01:27 PM
winner take all
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-03-2015 , 04:23 PM
$65,700,000 prize pool
27 millionaires
Top 100 receives at least $100,000


1 7,000,000
2 3,500,000
3 2,500,000
4 2,000,000
5 1,800,000
6 1,500,000
7 1,400,000
8 1,300,000
9 1,200,000
10-18 1,100,000
19-27 1,000,000
28-36 600,000
37-50 300,000
51-100 100,000
101-200 50,000
201-300 30,000
301-400 20,000
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-04-2015 , 01:46 AM
Here is my ideal payout for final table of 2015 main event assuming
1) top 9 all get 1 mil or more
2) 1000 spots paid
3) min pay 15,000
4) 6683 entries (same at 2014)

I show what a "normal" wsop payout would be if 1000 paid, but not final 9 getting 1 mil or more. Then I show what wsop is likely to pay if 1000 paid AND final 9 get 1 mil or more.

I then show my ideal payouts based on the same criteria. Then I show the payouts if paying 1st place based on skill percentage required to win the tournament and top 9 getting 1 mil or more and 1000 paid. (see prior post for more info) This one also helps narrow the big gap from 9th to 10th place vs the other pay tables.

Note my ideal $5,000,000 for 1st pay table only pays 6 spots less money and 994 spots more (or the same) vs the WSOP 2015 estimate.

Also, my ideal $5,000,000 for 1st will save about 1.7 mil in taxes. So each of the 1,000 cashing players will take home $1,700 more after taxes on average. This rises to $2,500 per player if 1st pays $3,500,000. Yes, flatter payouts mean more money in players pockets and makes for a healthier poker economy.

RedOak



RedOak
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-04-2015 , 05:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedOak
To do this I found a way to determine the percentage of luck vs skill in a tournament. Assume you were dealt AA. You would love to be able to shove preflop with that and get a call. Against any lesser likely calling hand you would be about an 80% to 20% favorite. With a field size of 6683 players this means you would have to double up 12.706 times. (2^12.706=6683).
So the chance of you winning by shoving with AA every time is 0.80^12.706=.0587. Thus winning a 6683 player event would be 5.87% skill and 94.13% luck. ( you would win once every 17 years). Thus why not pay 1st 5.87% of the pool or 3.687 million? Even this number is more than the US Open golf and Wimbledon. So it could easily be argued my 5.3 mil "idea" is still too high as well!

You appear to have a gaping flaw in your calculations.
You are very dependent on your 12.706 figure. For that figure to be correct, you are making the huge assumption that everyone you beat with your AA has an equal stack or greater to that of your own and therefore has also been shoving AA every hand and getting calls on their tables.

In short, only a shorter stack can ever double up.

Everything falls apart because of this.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote
02-04-2015 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteBlow
You appear to have a gaping flaw in your calculations.
You are very dependent on your 12.706 figure. For that figure to be correct, you are making the huge assumption that everyone you beat with your AA has an equal stack or greater to that of your own and therefore has also been shoving AA every hand and getting calls on their tables.

In short, only a shorter stack can ever double up.

Everything falls apart because of this.
No flaw. Thats how models work. you make assumptions and go from there.
Just like I assume you are 80-20 to win with your AA. You might bet 93-7 if other has a hand like AK, or 99-1 if other has KK and two people say they each folded a king.
You are wsop td for a day. How would you distribute a m+ main event prizepool Quote

      
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