Originally Posted by BluffingX
put another way,
in this test, half the statements are true and half are false.. so if you have no clue at all then the optimal answer is 50%.
in real life, when you read something.. it will not be correct 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time in the long run. the % of times it is right or wrong will depend on many factors.
so in a real life situation, answering 50% when you have no clue at all will not be optimal.
Would you agree that there may be one, rather unusual real life situation where answering 50% might be
Might two such situations exist? How about 20... or 200..
This is not an idle question in light of the subject.
The test measures how much confidence we have in our decisions and how strongly we cling to our conclusions; perhaps much too strongly for our own good.
The objective is to help us practice an optimal level of confidence... a level where our guesses are more likely to be correct than incorrect, and result in more profit than losses.
In real life, we are constantly forced to guess... to make decisions based on incomplete information. Will the gas station be open when I get there? I don't have enough gas to get back home. What should I do?