Quote:
Originally Posted by mrno1324
Hearing it from him would be good but it's pretty clear what happened
-went full degen in Macau and blew most of his bankroll
-he now has a couple millions left probably most of which is borrowed
-now following the degen dream trying to run it up somewhere
-from what Doug Polk said before the stress of gambling way outside his roll and owing tons of people money made him go cray cray
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrno1324
Hearing it from him would be good but it's pretty clear what happened
-went full degen in Macau and blew most of his bankroll
-he now has a couple millions left probably most of which is borrowed
-now following the degen dream trying to run it up somewhere
-from what Doug Polk said before the stress of gambling way outside his roll and owing tons of people money made him go cray cray
Lot of issues at play and none of them point to any realistic chance of long term success in poker. .0001% chance this storyline turns around? Yes, all that stuff is stressful and interrupts his ability to think clearly, focus on poker, and separate himself from results.
A huge driving factor that gets overlooked IMO is the effort he put into poker that drove his rise & the state of his brain compared to earlier in his career. Everyone talks about durrr's genius but I'd bet he was one of the hardest working poker players (think in terms of player intensity) for a long time. Our body's weren't meant to handle that kind of pressure over an extended period of time. Tom probably knows only 1 gear that leads to him > all poker players. It's been 10+ years of this, he's nowhere near as interested in the game as when he started and has nowhere near the brain power (Google some fMRI images about the brain & addiction, all that winning & stimulation flooded his system with dopamine at the time and lead to other changes in the body like a testosterone boost... this makes people more aggressive & competitive. Losing decreases testosterone production). Tom depended a lot on his bluffing ability & creativity early in his career... As the brain fully develops in males (25-26 usually) they become more risk averse (because the hypothalamus matures... Not just bc of life experience & learning about risk of ruin). Short term memory naturally declines in the 30's as well (and in Tom's case amplified bc of stress). Anxiety often leads to depression + his dad died. This creates emotional instability (which adds to the storm and isn't very acceptable for one of the best poker players in the world). These are just some of the biological factors that lead to being unable to cognitively perform at a previous off the charts level. Trying to force improved performance via increasing effort will be short lived by now. Tom has to be exhausted. This is to be expected for anyone in this type of situation. I'd bet a lot of high stakes players of the same era can relate. I could until getting out of poker.
The biggest problem now is his definition of success is nowhere close to what it would have been when he started poker (addiction). Whether or not he has a couple mil it feels like peanuts bc he always compares it to the past (with a lot of help from the poker community). He probably knows he will never be the very best on the felt again. To Tom success = being the best poker player in the world (which also = one of the richest through poker). So he chases this via the Chinese businessman. The chances of getting what he wants (or can accept without a drastic change in expectations) out of poker are slim to none. He can only over perform again by dramatically lowering expectations (I'm sure at 1 point he was confident he'd make $100 mil) which will be close to impossible by staying in poker.