yes, interesting thought processes itt

fyp, just ask my nephew.

Let's see if he's even around in 5 days

He got wrecked again today. Stuck 125k as per HSDB

No, you just said:

Not that he is, just that he has to be close. HUGE difference, guys.

Well, there was the way you started your thread, and then there was "Sage"Donkey.

Pretty messed up to start a thread like this especially when you have no clue..

dont usually bother railing online games but the Ansky HU battles over the last yr/2 have been pretty entertaining. I've wondered a couple of times why its 100/200 they battle at when thats kind of biggest stakes going on these days (might expect to battle 25/50 or 50/100) but most logical answer is just that he can afford to play 100/200.

Or maybe some crazy millionaire biznizman giving unlimited monies to play with cos likes some crazy sweat, wouldn't be the first time...

I heard Supernova9 beasts everything. When can't get HU action vs Berri, he often plays full ring live PLO and opens j552r in the one-hole.

YTD May 1st - supernova9 -499K. LOL at that being close to busto at the stakes he plays.

So he's down like 40 Buy-Ins in a close edge HUPLO match?
Don't forget that tons of those hands were played at 5card PLO!

Didn't they play 5card hi-lo as well? perhaps.

also, I wish stars spread 6card

Many of these so called "top" players who play PLO are actually terrible at it or just average. They often end up playing it because it is the crack cocaine of poker. They should just stick to games that they have a near definite edge in, i.e, nearly always NLHE.

Take Isildur1 as an example. He is okay/maybe even fairly good at PLO now but this is many years after dumping millions in it while playing like the biggest fish ever at it.

Dani Stern is not in that category, however if he doesn't have super high skill levels in HU PLO he is taking a huge and unwise risk by battling against any player who he realises quite early on in their exchanges is good+.
Additionally, as he gets deeper into a hole against Berri Sweet it most likely will build his opponent's confidence and damage his own, plus Berri Sweet will have bolstered bank roll confidence to play fearlessly which is an essential component of strategy in HU play.

Back to the original "close to busto" post. There is no way of knowing as you have to take into account untracked on line games, his results on FT (not sure what they were), his on line MTT results, live cash games and live MTTs. Also we don't know his net worth or other income that he might have outside of poker.

Regarding his live MTT results specifically. He looks very much like a ~break even player to me in his Hendon Mob listed cashes, despite a massive $3.7M in cashes.

I (gu)es(s)timate this by applying a rough formula of multiplying his known buy ins by 6 (assuming he's cashed 1 in 6 comps played) to estimate his total buy ins. Using this rough formula he has cashed for roughly what he has bought in for. There are also other negatives to take into account such as taxes and expenses as well as some potential positives such as him selling marked up equity to investors.

Please do not flame me for my guesstimate. It is much more well thought out and calculated than I can describe in a couple of sentences above and I gave an in depth analysis of the logic of my formula somewhere on another 2plus2 thread. There are a lot of variables that can easily skew whether he is ~break even in live MTTs and without giving you massive details I do believe that he is very likely to be somewhere in the range of +15% ROI to -15% ROI in them and very unlikely to be up in the 25%+ range of ROI.

When I get time I will be releasing an app or web site that can estimate a player's live MTT ROI based on known results, and it will have many variables available that can be tweaked in order to give the most logical accurate estimate or estimated range of a player's live MTT ROI.

5-card-PLO isn't tracked. So we don't know how much he's up/down there.

must be nice to be berri sweet tho. completely unknown PLO crusher making heaps.

and he's made 7 figures on eurosites in the past 3 years alone. .. what a ****** boss

the time they broadcasted 2m2mm show his ptr was already heavily negative with a couple of big blinds/100 losing "winrate" and that was 8 years ago, he must gameselect very well in live games / play good / run good in mtt-s to cover his online losses. i don't think any tracking site exists which shows him winning in the last 6-8 years online cash.

i doubt he's broke tho, lol. and thats nobody's business here, he can clearly decide if the game worth playing or not, you cannot judge that.

Bobo,

Maybe I should have thought thread title through more but the title ended with a question mark. Then I stated my thought process as to why I thought he may be close to busto. I could totally b wrong. Nobody is saying that with the swings of HUPLO that he couldn't turn it around in a few sessions but it seems like BS has a strong edge based on what we have seen so far. Yeah - 455k for the year isn't as bad as i thought. Although if SDs speculation about his mtts is anywhere near close then looking at his FTP and PS results he has been losing for some time. Unless im way off and Dani grinds 5/10 and 10/20 non stop and crushes.

Someone should run the results through the variance calculator to see what the result is. Does it work for huplo?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What does it matter if he's busto or not? Face it, the only pros that last a long time are the ones that bink huge MTT scores. They rest of them burn up and fade away. You're forgetting that the very same reason they shot up/ made it for a brief time, is exactly the same reason why so many burn up on the way back down- it's called being financially irresponsible and reckless, with a streak of degen mixed in for good measure. They played at the edge then, just like they're playing at the edge now.

It is quite likely he sold action. He may only have 20% in these games, but I think it's safe to say he is not playing on his own dime.

Interesting, you're not usually one to present your opinion as if it were fact.

Stop assuming that every poker pro gets their entire bankroll/net worth exclusively from poker lol.

HU player loses almost 50 buyins in a small edge, high variance PLO game.

Even for NVG this thread is dumb. When a guy is taking big losses and keeps showing up everyday to play I would think he's the exact opposite of busto.

Although I have wondered the same thing, this thread is in poor taste. You might think it's ok to publicise people's losses like this but it's over the line imo. These aren't video game characters, they're real people who are probably on a huge downswing. That makes it hard enough to regain full confidence and begin to crush. Threads like this are just kicking u when ur down.

Gl dani and thanks for fighting the good fight against Amaya. Even if it didn't quite have the desired impact, it was about 100 times more effort than the rest of us were putting in to speak up against those changes. I appreciated that.

Ps. A little tip in life for anyone out there who cares: surround yourself with people who build you up as a person rather than break u down. U won't believe the heights you'll reach when u cut out toxic influence.