Quote:
Originally Posted by mdc
[By the way -- this is also one of the reasons that blackjack tournaments make for terrible tv. There will never be "stars" since luck is a huge component, and perfect strategy is relatively simple compared to becoming a top poker player, which takes years of experience. There are no interesting bluffs, reads or interpersonal dynamics between players. And the first 15-18 hands are pretty boring if you have good players, because they bet low and wait to make a move].
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These statements couldn't be any farther from the truth.
Blackjack tourneys may not be as popular as poker on TV, but there's a ton of it out there. In the past 5 years I myself have been involved in: 4 seasons of the World Series of Blackjack & 2 seasons of Celebrity Blackjack on GSN, 2 seasons of the Ultimate Blackjack Tour on CBS with re-runs on WGN, the Hilton Million Dollar BJ Tourney & Vegas Challenge on the Travel Channel, King of Vegas on Spike TV (combo blackjack and poker), and several other interview segments on blackjack tournament play for other shows.
But regardless of the relative success of those shows on tv, your assertion that luck is the primary factor and that basic strategy is relatively easy to learn is just dead wrong. A blackjack tournament actually has very little to do with the correct 'basic strategy' of hands and everything to do with betting correlations and higher mathematical concepts about the relativity of different outcomes. What may appear to be simple luck actually has a lot to do with skill, but it'd take a lot longer than a simple bulletin board message to explain why.
I guess the closest comparison may be to poker, in which someone pushing with any 2 cards has the ability to double up and beat a pro in any given hand. But those of us who understand the game better realize that in the long run, the pro will beat the amateur the vast majority of the time. If you don't believe me, play 10 heads up blackjack tourneys against a tourney blackjack pro; you'd be very lucky to win 3 or 4 of them. Its important to differentiate too -- blackjack cash games (ie card counting, hole carding, etc) are apples and oranges a completely separate set of skills than the ones used to master blackjack tournaments.
"Bluffing" "reads" and "interpersonal dynamics" actually do play a strong part as well, considering that the best bets and plays must be made based not only on chip position, but on your profile of how the other person will bet or play their hands when you're acting out of position. Some of my biggest tournament wins have come about by betting or playing AGAINST "proper" strategy, but perfectly for the specific opponent i was playing. This dynamic only increases when you put two pros together, who must 3rd and 4th level their thinking to try and outwit, outbet, and outplay one another. Just like in poker, getting all your money in as a coinflip is often the last resort, but a truly good player finds many, many ways to have a virtual lock on their opponent when the right time comes.
Anyway, congrats to Sammy and all. Just wanted to provide a different viewpoint on your statements about the game --
-hd.