Russian fold quads in One Drop???? - Page 7 - Poker News

Crockett616 · 07-02-2012, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by never fade

Just feel the need to point out a couple of iffy assumptions that seem to be commonly held here; -

1. if the quads was a bad laydown, other guy would have shown.

Why? yes, it would be massively tilting, but there is a thing called class, which whilst rare in the poker world, is not unheard of. Espepcially in a live setting, uber-high buy-in tourney.

I think the guy was just stunned. Like 'what is this i dont even!?!'

Trent813 · 07-02-2012, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by archii

pffff.. It doesnt matter whether they play a million dollar buy-in tournament or a normal $5k WSOP event. The buy-in should not matter, if it does it's too big for you.

Not sure if this is a level, but if you think the buy-in doesn't matter your crazy.

never fade · 07-02-2012, 08:38 AM

One more point - this guy had the stones to show his quads fold. Had to be extremely conifident of his read to do THAT, in THIS event!

now THAT is balla imo

MoreDeadMoney · 07-02-2012, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by never fade

Just feel the need to point out a couple of iffy assumptions that seem to be commonly held here; -

1. if the quads was a bad laydown, other guy would have shown.

Why? yes, it would be massively tilting, but there is a thing called class, which whilst rare in the poker world, is not unheard of. Espepcially in a live setting, uber-high buy-in tourney.

2. all the comments about the guy being an amatuer or a business man - i.e. is something of a mark. Not being a 'pro' - i.e. deriving income from other sources besides the game - does not mean the player lacks the ability to think and play at pro level. As some poster above said, this russian is one of the top high-stakes class players in Russia (obviosuly just taking this at its word, no idea if actually true). Dangerous assumption that he is a weak, or even just a weaker, player that the named pro's in the field.

If hand played out as described above, i.e. quads led with significant overbet on river, then fwiw my money is on this being by far and awaythe greatest fold I've every heard of. Admittedly it could be a close thing between JJ and 10 9s, but why put it all in such a close call.

+1 to both parts of this.

I think the tabling to tilt concept is the thinking of 20-somethings, but the hand was played by a 70-something.

On the amateur thing. The assumption is that "amateur" always means the typical donkey at the local 1/2 NL game. Obviously that's not always the case.

I think it comes down to this. Smirnov considered the situation too marginal even including some JJ/KK/Misplayed Flush in the "amateur's" range and felt that he shouldn't risk his tournament life in what his reads told him was a marginal situation. If he believes his play in other spots vs the field is more +EV than his EV in the newly famous hand, he folds. He still has a healthy stack, and has a chance to win, so what was a bad "cash game" fold is an ok tournament fold. That said, like 99.99% of good and bad players, I'd have called - just saying the fold isn't overly bad.

MDM

monkeytilt · 07-02-2012, 08:43 AM

Can't find fault with Smirnov's thought process. Incredible fold.
Dwan leaving the table in disbelief is just awesome!

MissBlondie · 07-02-2012, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by therightdeal

Surely Morgan would have showed the hand if it was anything less than the straight flush?

This.

WAtR · 07-02-2012, 08:45 AM

Does this event have hole card cameras?

Mariklus · 07-02-2012, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoreDeadMoney

+1 to both parts of this.

I think the tabling to tilt concept is the thinking of 20-somethings, but the hand was played by a 70-something.

On the amateur thing. The assumption is that "amateur" always means the typical donkey at the local 1/2 NL game. Obviously that's not always the case.

I think it comes down to this. Smirnov considered the situation too marginal even including some JJ/KK/Misplayed Flush in the "amateur's" range and felt that he shouldn't risk his tournament life in what his reads told him was a marginal situation. If he believes his play in other spots vs the field is more +EV than his EV in the newly famous hand, he folds. He still has a healthy stack, and has a chance to win, so what was a bad "cash game" fold is an ok tournament fold. That said, like 99.99% of good and bad players, I'd have called - just saying the fold isn't overly bad.

MDM

If you only include JJ to his range, calling is more +EV than getting it in with AA preflop shove.

So this can only be justified by making a soulread and tho it would be one of the greatest laydowns ever.

meatpies19 · 07-02-2012, 08:53 AM

lol at people just stating he would have shown because of "xyz". if he had jacks full or a 109s or whatever he would still be surprized. he was probably confused as **** and just mucked.
and has no one pointed out how retarded it is of russian guy to show? look how much attention hes got himself basically declaring he's a nit who will fold massive hands.

Vuggie · 07-02-2012, 09:02 AM

Great fold, Smirnov!

Now ship this thing

archii · 07-02-2012, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meatpies19

lol at people just stating he would have shown because of "xyz". if he had jacks full or a 109s or whatever he would still be surprized. he was probably confused as **** and just mucked.
and has no one pointed out how retarded it is of russian guy to show? look how much attention hes got himself basically declaring he's a nit who will fold massive hands.

Why is that bad? He can use it to his advantage in the future. Tomorrow he lets people try to get him off of hands and he snaps them and laughs with 18 million in his pocket. Kinda rooting for this guy now.

Voe · 07-02-2012, 09:06 AM

No money in $1,000,000 tourneys -- everyone's solid.

EdBratz66 · 07-02-2012, 09:08 AM

Hmmm, so a stone cold bluff here is strictly out of the question? I think it is quite possible the villian had 56 here. Possibly 5s6s, so catching the flush on the turn, or just a busted straight draw.

stevdoro · 07-02-2012, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pr0wler

Based on everything I've read in the article, my own personal experience, and what others have said...I really do think John Morgan had T9ss. Very gangster fold.

Snap call on the flop = decision that doesn't require thought. I'm sure if he had JJ he'd take at least a few seconds to consider raising or give it a second thought at the very least. But if he has T9ss in his eyes that's probably a no brainer call situation. Snap call on turn = See above. JJ might snap call the turn but wouldn't snap call the flop IMO.

Snap shove on river = guy confidently shoves all-in to a 700,000 bet into a 600,000 pot. He MIGHT do this with JJ some percentage of the time...but when you discount maybe 1 combo of JJ preflop (he didn't 3-bet) it seems less likely he had this hand. Plus, I do think he'd put more thought into JJ on the river as there are a few hands that beat him and he would probably consider for a little longer before/if he shoves.

Close call but at least in this instance, I think he saved the rest of his stack.

Couldn't dissagree more with this. Its completely the opposite. With T9s or nuts on the flop it is never a snap call, it has to be a decision time whether to slowroll or to raise, a snap call is most indicative of a strong hand but not the nuts where amateur is scared to raise but is very confident in calling , meaning JJ.
This is why i am very much confident that he had JJ, because a snap call on the flop with T9s would have to be an extremely tricky play which i don't think this older amateur is capable of.

Very much a bad judgement by Smirnov and horrible fold without a single doubt.

Vuggie · 07-02-2012, 09:11 AM

The guy is my new favourite. He can fold quads to a straight flush and nobody else can do it, even Dwan and Galfond