I have never seen any player from russia ever fold a pair on pokerstars.

this is a sign of the end of the world I think WTF REALLY..

Fun fact: Phil Galfond saying there are "very few hands" that aren't a straight flush is an indirect way of saying the fold was ******ed, since even if there was just one other combination he could have that wasn't a straight flush it would be a call due to pot odds. The fact there could be more than one (hence, plural) makes it even worse.

Unlikely that he missed both chances, the paired board for full house/quads chance, and the straight flush chance. unless of course he had A9s/ATs making the strghflsh impossible.

This is one of those things that either makes you look like a genius or super stupid. Would be interesting to know which he is in this occasion.

The buy-in does matter. It's stupid to say that it doesn't. If the 1M USD (or whatever the buy-in is) means a lot to your opponent, he will shove super narrow range on the river and probably never gonna bluff.

I'm not talking just about this spot, but in general, yes it does matter.

This is true, but there is a chance he wouldnt shove with JJ, and if KK is virtually impossible because of pf play, then it's not completely ******ed. But I would imagine KK is sometimes in his range, and that sometimes he does shove JJ.

Btw, thoughts of Hellmuth just the call with AQ on AxQQ6 board when villain bets on river? (x was not K)

No, there is no outcome that makes this guy look like a genius. If it turns out the other guy had a straight flush then the fold is still insanely bad.

first response nailed it

Lolz at Durrrr having to leave the table after seeing this go down

Fun fact: no. He is saying that there are only 4 hand combinations that make sense and only one that assuredly plays turn and river like this. Combined with other reads makes it a difficult decision. I actually think he was right here but overall it should be a call. Shoving JJ on this river bet sizing is by no means and auto-move. Its hard to believe there are that many hands that call a river shove that lose to JJ as the hand played out.

Don't like people criticising this fold too much, live tells are allowed to override logic sometimes and it's what makes the game so fascinating. If everyone just did what was mathematically correct it would be extremely dull.

It has to be a straight flush more than 2 out of 3 times.

I agree with you on the first part, but you can't expect a businessman to think about what hands can call his shove when he's holding an overfull.

Also it's quite official that he had the straight flush isn't it?

The fact that he didn't show, combined with

"He added that Morgan seemed visibly upset after the hand, giving more validity to the fold."

and

"We also asked [de Wolfe] if Morgan said anything to imply that he had the straight flush. “He did say a few things that led me to believe that he had it,” De Wolfe said."


As for your fun facts, here's another Galfond quote : "“It very well could've been a good fold,” Galfond said. “It's hard to pick up stone cold reads only after two hours, but there are very few value hands that make sense on the river. As far as full houses {K-}{K-} is very unlikely cause you'd expect a raise pre, so maybe {j-}{j-}. I don't think I have it in me to fold quads, but I think it was a good fold.”

I think in this spot it's stupid to assume the buy-in matters to your opponent. The villain is a super loaded businessman who can blow away a million. Really doubt they are gun shy. That would be a huge mistake in my mind. Rather make the decision with other informatio you have (his posture, his previous play, betting pattern and **** like that) but DO NOT assume he is afraid because of the buy-in.

This, along with the russians tells on the guy, the fold isnt that crazy.

But if KK is almost impossible (his assumption he would raise if pf like 97% of the time) and JJ is not auto-shove, then there is only 1 possible hand.

Not saying it's a great fold, just trying to say it's probably not as bad as it might seem at first glance.

Like I said, I'm not talking only about this spot, but in general it does matter. Btw the russian did say that the businessman was playing nitty and was not spewtarding his chips before.

You can over-analyze this till the cows come home...

the fact remains, it was a bad fold, and there is no doubt about it.

Cool statement bro.

Hope you call every time you have 2nd nuts against a nit's push.

Exactly. Not to mention every one keeps overlooking the fact the businessman snapped the flop and turn bets. He flops the nut straight, turns the absolute nuts. Come on, stop focusing on the quad fold, and consider his flop and turn actions, and why he could only have one possible hand.... 99.99 % of players would never fold this, and is why they can't nor ever will be able to play on this level. Smirnov destroys the highest level cash games in russia and is friends with demidov and joiso. Holds a phd, and is obviously a ****** who leveled himself because nvgtards don't understand the concept of live tells over riding pot odds etc... Noobs stfu and move along

I heard the commentating on this hand but didn't see it played..
I mean 1st of all, if he's so confident the guy has T9S, why even bet the river? Why not check call? Unless Smirnov's "read" didn't kick in until the villain shoved..

It's definitely hard to not value bet the **** out of quads on the river, regardless.

If the villain that's jamming this river is a pro, it's a different story imo..
An amateur like this guy could easily have AJ with the A of spades and think his TPTK turned NF is good enough to value shove the river, even with the paired board.

Folding quads to an amateur in that spot is probably a horrible play 95% of the time...I wonder if Smirnov still tries to make that hero-fold if the tourney isn't a $1 mil buy-in..

This situation is the exact reason pros lined up to play this tourney. Pretty sure I wouldn't fold quads ever

100% THE NUTS trying to stack a boat. Fold of the decade.

Russian folds quads

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL