Originally Posted by BackFromABannin
The guy just pulled a Frankenberger
Get over it
No. Frankenberger had the odds to call even if the other guy had AA or KK, so it was 100% a bad fold.
This guy had to call 2.7m to win 4.7m pot. That means if he puts the guy on 10s9s 43% of the time, he has to fold.
Morgan OVERBET ALL-IN a guy who donk bet a scary flop, kept betting when the turn paired and OVERBET THE RIVER on a very scary board. No way anyone with only a flushdraw would overbet the river on a paired board, so Smirnov never had a flush there.
Not only that but JJ is only the 4th best hand, so Morgan had to be sure that Smirnov didn't have 10s9s, 88 and KK. He seemed confident for someone with the 4th nut... In fact, if he has JJ and gets called, he is losing a lot of time. What's calling him that he beats? Maybe J8 (unlikely preflop), 87 (close call or fold given the action) and 77(close call or fold given the action) and Smirnov never has K8 there.
Morgan could well have 10s9s 43% of the time.