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View Poll Results: John Morgan had:
KK 74 6.09%
JJ 385 31.69%
T9ss 483 39.75%
Ace high flush 173 14.24%
Air 100 8.23%
Voters: 1215. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-02-2012, 11:12 AM   #151
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

I don't buy the argument that the fold is bad 'in the long run'. There is no long run, this is a unique Million Dollar tournament.
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:17 AM   #152
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vuggie View Post
Great fold, Smirnov!
Don't bet your quad jacks into quintup queens!
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:20 AM   #153
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

Was watching the live stream when the commentators spoke of this. Said to myself that it was either the greatest lay-down in the history of poker, or the guy with quads was a complete moron. I will stand by that . . .
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:29 AM   #154
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

Quote:
Originally Posted by aiminglow View Post
A flush can't call an all in raise on a paired board. You are 100% wrong.
What kind of a statement is this?
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:34 AM   #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by There Is A Light View Post
I don't buy the argument that the fold is bad 'in the long run'. There is no long run, this is a unique Million Dollar tournament.
"in the long run" does not necessarily mean what you think it means
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:36 AM   #156
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The guy just pulled a Frankenberger

Get over it
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:40 AM   #157
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

I am pretty sure now that his range there is JJ or T9ss. Kings make little sense (almost no sense) and bluffs makes even less sense since shoving into third barrel on the river is suicidal for anyone with a little clue in poker. Everybody assuming that businessman who plays 1 mill tourney is the same donk who plays in your local 1/2 nhl game can't be more wrong. I am pretty sure that all of these guys are pretty solid players who are familliar with the world of high stakes and some poker theory basics. Moreover I am inclined to think that these guys gonna play more on a nit side in this format with tables full of pros.

Now having capped his range to JJ or T9ss it's still a wrong fold mathwise. But you have to be at the table to fully judge this. I know that "soulread" and "gutfeeling" is something 16-tabling online kids (like me, lol) value much less than math, but if you play by math than it's -ev even to play in this kind of tourney almost for everyone there. So give guy a credit for at least being able to think on that level.
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:41 AM   #158
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

Replacing Frankenberger's QQ fold preflop, and Nguyen's "You call and it's gonna be all over, baby" in the annals of poker lore, we now have the "88 Proof." The 88 Proof is a play that will forever be remembered as the day when the Russian Smirnov folds Quad 8's face up in response to the amateur's all-in shove on the river.

Songs will be sung, photoshops shall be created... History has been witnessed here today!

Hmm, all of a sudden I need a drink. Smirnov Ice for everyone.

Last edited by RFW3; 07-02-2012 at 11:42 AM. Reason: correct a typo.
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:42 AM   #159
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

Starting to wonder how many people posting in this thread actually play poker.

a) this player may not be a pro, but that doesn't mean he's an idiot.

b) even $5 players understand that you can't raise for value if no worse hand will call. Jamming a flush or even 7s full here is idiotic because there's no worse hand that will ever call. So Morgan is always calling (or possibly folding) with those hands here, never raising.

c) Smirnov overbet the river. Morgan isn't going to see that massive overbet and think "oh, what a great spot to bluff!" It's a polarized bet and since it's going to be the quasi-nuts a lot of the time, Morgan is only raising here if he has something resembling the nuts himself. Sure, a pro with a straight flush blocker or something might figure out she needs to turn her hand into a bluff to win here, and make a crazy but perhaps amazing shove, but there's no way this nitty amateur is doing that.

d) Basically the only hands I can see Morgan getting to the river with here and raising on the end are JJ or Ts9s. I'd think the chances he had anything else are almost zero. In a vacuum, JJ is 3 times more likely than Ts9s, just counting combos. But if you factor in preflop and flop play, Smirnov might have reasons to heavily discount the likelihood of JJ here.

e) Someone asked why Morgan would shove a straight flush on the end? Are you serious? If you don't shove a straight flush against that huge overbet on the river, you shouldn't be playing poker.
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:45 AM   #160
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

Also I think that even if there is 75% JJ, 20%T9ss and 5%KK calling off and exiting this kind of tourney every 5th time at this stage is still questionable, since always folding will always leave us with viable stack to proceed to play in the middle stage of the tourney.
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:47 AM   #161
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

Quote:
Originally Posted by EdBratz66 View Post
It is 100% not a straight flush. Human nature would be to show the hand because of the absurdity of it especially if he is not a "pro".
And I think human nature would be to not show because you got owned so much. You think he wants to show how much of a nit he really is?
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:48 AM   #162
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

After the tournament Morgan really needs to tell everyone what he had there. I know it will taint the analysis with results oriented whatever, but we have to know!
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:54 AM   #163
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

I think the Russian watched casino royale one too many times but I am not playing tourneys for $1Mil so what do I know.

zero
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:56 AM   #164
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vuggie View Post
"in the long run" does not necessarily mean what you think it means
I know what you're saying, but I still disagree.
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:57 AM   #165
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Re: Russian fold quads in One Drop????

He obviously forgot about the bad beat jackpot
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