Yep, it's another dumb November 9 thread. Move along it you have a distaste for ill-informed speculation and half-baked statistics.

In a futile attempt to predict how things will unfold at the upcoming final table, I compiled some data from all of the post-Moneymaker final tables. I wanted to see if there was a way to use stack size to predict where a player would finish, but I quickly realized that this is probably futile. The more chips you have, the higher you can be expected to finish. That's all that can be said.

Nevertheless, I do think the results reveal some interesting facts. Here are the last five final tables in order of starting chips. Alongside each player's name are three numbers: his starting stack (in millions), the percentage of the total chips he started with, and his final position.

2004
1. Greg “Fossilman” Raymer - 8.22 - 32.36% - 1
2. Matt Dean - 4.92 - 19.37% - 7
3. Josh Arieh - 3.21 - 12.64% - 3
4. Glenn Hughes - 2.28 - 8.98% - 5
5. Dan Harrington - 2.25 - 8.86% - 4
6. David Williams - 1.58 - 6.22% - 2
7. Al Krux - 1.31 - 5.16% - 6
8. Michael McClain - 0.89 - 3.50% - 9
9. Mattias Andersson - 0.74 - 2.91% - 8

2005
1. Aaron Kanter - 10.7 - 19.01% - 4
2. Tex Barch - 9.33 - 16.58% - 3
3. Andrew Black - 8.14 - 14.46% - 5
4. Mike Matusow - 7.41 - 13.17% - 9
5. Steve Dannenmann - 5.46 - 9.70% - 2
6. Joseph Hachem - 5.42 - 9.63% - 1
7. Daniel Bergsdorf - 5.27 - 9.37% - 7
8. Scott Lazar - 3.37 - 5.99% - 6
9. Brad Kondracki - 1.18 - 2.10% - 8

2006
1. Jamie Gold - 25.65 - 28.46% - 1
2. Allen Cunningham - 17.77 - 19.71% - 4
3. Richard Lee - 11.82 - 13.11% - 6
4. Erik Friberg - 9.60 - 10.65% - 8
5. Paul Wasicka - 7.97 - 8.84% - 2
6. Doug Kim - 6.77 - 7.51% - 7
7. Rhett Butler - 4.82 - 5.35% - 5
8. Michael Binger - 3.14 - 3.48% - 3
9. Dan Nassif - 2.6 - 2.88% - 9

2007
1. Philip Hilm - 22.07 - 17.32% - 9
2. Tuan Lam - 21.315 - 16.73% - 2
3. Jon Kalmar - 20.32 - 15.94% - 5
4. Raymond Rahme - 16.32 - 12.81% - 3
5. Lee Childs - 13.24 - 10.39% - 7
6. Lee Watkinson - 9.925 - 7.79% - 8
7. Hevad "Rain" Khan - 9.205 - 7.23% - 6
8. Jerry Yang - 8.45 - 6.63% - 1
9. Alex Kravchenko - 6.57 - 5.15% - 4

2008
1. Dennis Philips - 26.30 - 19.21% - 3
2. Ivan Demidov - 24.40 - 17.83% - 2
3. Scott Montgomery - 19.69 - 14.38% - 5
4. Peter Eastgate - 18.38 - 13.43% - 1
5. Ylon Schwartz - 12.53 - 9.15% - 4
6. Darus Suharto - 12.52 - 9.15% - 6
7. David “Chino” Rheem - 10.23 - 7.47% - 7
8. Craig Marquis - 10.21 - 7.47% - 9
9. Kelly Kim - 2.62 - 1.91% - 8

2009
Darvin Moon - 58.93 - 30.24% - ?
Eric Buchman - 34.80 - 17.86% - ?
Steven Begleiter - 29.89 - 15.34% - ?
Jeff Shulman - 19.58 - 10.05% - ?
Joe Cada - 13.22 - 6.78% - ?
Kevin Schaffel - 12.39 - 6.36% - ?
Phil Ivey - 9.77 - 5.01% - ?
Antoin Saout - 9.50 - 4.87% - ?
James Akenhead - 6.80 - 3.49% - ?

Here is the list of all the players in order of starting chip percentage with this year's finalists in bold and all past winners in italics:

Greg “Fossilman” Raymer - 32.36% - 1
Darvin Moon - 58.93 - 30.24% - ?
Jamie Gold - 28.46% - 1
Allen Cunningham - 19.71% - 4
Matt Dean - 19.37% - 7
Dennis Philips - 19.21% - 3
Aaron Kanter - 19.01% - 4
Eric Buchman - 34.80 - 17.86% - ?
Ivan Demidov - 17.83% - 2
Philip Hilm - 17.32% - 9
Tuan Lam - 16.73% - 2
Tex Barch - 16.58% - 3
Jon Kalmar - 15.94% - 5
Steven Begleiter - 29.89 - 15.34% - ?
Andrew Black - 14.46% - 5
Scott Montgomery - 14.38% - 5
Peter Eastgate - 13.43% - 1
Mike Matusow - 13.17% - 9
Richard Lee - 13.11% - 6
Raymond Rahme - 12.81% - 3
Josh Arieh - 12.64% - 3
Erik Friberg - 10.65% - 8
Lee Childs - 10.39% - 7
Jeff Shulman - 19.58 - 10.05% - ?
Steve Dannenmann - 9.70% - 2
Joseph Hachem - 9.63% - 1
Daniel Bergsdorf - 9.37% - 7
Ylon Schwartz - 9.15% - 4
Darus Suharto - 9.15% - 6
Glenn Hughes - 8.98% - 5
Dan Harrington - 8.86% - 4
Paul Wasicka - 8.84% - 2
Lee Watkinson - 7.79% - 8
Doug Kim - 7.51% - 7
David “Chino” Rheem - 7.47% - 7
Craig Marquis - 7.47% - 9
Hevad "Rain" Khan - 7.23% - 6
Joe Cada - 13.22 - 6.78% - ?
Jerry Yang - 6.63% - 1
Kevin Schaffel - 12.39 - 6.36% - ?
David Williams - 6.22% - 2
Scott Lazar - 5.99% - 6
Rhett Butler - 5.35% - 5
Al Krux - 5.16% - 6
Alex Kravchenko - 5.15% - 4
Phil Ivey - 9.77 - 5.01% - ?
Antoin Saout - 9.50 - 4.87% - ?
Michael McClain - 3.50% - 9
James Akenhead - 6.80 - 3.49% - ?
Michael Binger - 3.48% - 3
Mattias Andersson - 2.91% - 8
Dan Nassif - 2.88% - 9
Brad Kondracki - 2.10% - 8
Kelly Kim - 1.91% - 8

I know the sample size is laughably small, but humor me.

- Only two players have started the final table with over 20% of the chips in play: Greg Raymer and Jamie Gold. They both held roughly 30% of the total chips at the start of the final table and they both won the championship. Darvin Moon will start this year's table with 30.24% of the chips.

- Jerry Yang is responsible for the most unlikely win in recent history, starting the final table with a paltry 6.63% of the total chips in play. Good news for this year's short stacks? Not exactly. There are four players starting this year's final table with fewer chips than Yang: Schaffel, Ivey, Saout, and Akenhead.

- The average finish as a function of stack size using arbitrary tiers of 5%:

30-35% - 1
25-30% - 1
20-25% - N/A
15-20% - 4.3
10-15% - 5.2
5-10% - 4.84
0-5% - 7.5

Interestingly, the difference in expected finish between 5-20% in chips seems pretty minimal. A huge stack is a huge advantage and a tiny stack is a huge disadvantage, but there doesn't seem to be a big difference between a slightly above average stack and a slightly below average stack.

And now some 100% infallible scientific predictions:

Darvin Moon and Steven Begleiter are most likely to collapse. It seems like there are always 1-2 players who collapse under the pressure and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (Philip "1st to worst" Hilm, Dennis "AK" Phillips, Lee "sure I'll shove w/ A7" Watkinson, and Andy Black come to mind). I think this year's final table might be the toughest in recent memory, but there are still some weak links. Begleiter has played terribly based on the televised hands. Moon has played better, but is inexperienced and has shown a willingness to risk a ton of chips with a vulnerable hand (the Kopp flush vs. flush hand on a paired board). I think you've got your two spew candidates right here. If I was at this table I would be looking to play pots with these guys in hopes of catching a big hand. I don't think either of them can make a big laydown post flop. That said...

Darvin Moon will finish in the top 3. I don't care if he's the least experienced and (possibly) the least skilled player at the final table. He has almost a third of the chips in play. He can double up the second biggest stack (Eric Buchman) and still be third in chips. He can afford to make mistakes.

Phil Ivey will not win the main event. He may be the stone cold nuts, but his edge in NLHE isn't huge enough to account for his tiny stack. Ditto for Antoine Saout and James Akenhead. No player who started the final table with less than 5% of the chips in play has ever finished higher than 3rd. It will take an obscene amount of rungood for one of these three to even get heads up.

Eric Buchman or Jeff Shulman will win the ME. They might not be as good as Ivey, Akenhead, Saout, or Cada, but they start with a lot more chips and they have a big edge in skill/experience over Darvin Moon and Steven Begleiter. If they can tread water and get down to short-handed with Moon and/or Begleiter, I think they'll be in great position to win.

Nice analysis and put some thought/work into it.

Sure some NVGers will find some stuff to rip apart, but not bad.

I also agree Akenhead, Saout, and Ivey will not win it. Even though Ivey is much better than any of the others the edge simply isn't big enough. He will have to survive plenty of 3-2 advantages or coinflips to get enough chips to really play. He needs a double up or two to really exploit his advantages.

Then again...

It's Phil ****ing Ivey.

what kinda odds could someone get betting against shulman and buchman?

i was thinkin about this the other day and figured Moon will be top 3 based the huge percentage of chips he owns. I also thought Buchman and Shulman would win the event. It is interesting, however to rework the chip % say if ivey or cada double, then they have a similar chip stack to Shulman's. So while the analysis is well done, anything little thing may can make it all go down the drain.

Ivey thinks a purr of Aces beats a frush....

Moon is God!

Well I'm not offering any bets, but here are the odds to win from Bodog:

Darvin Moon 2-1
Eric Buchman 3-1
Phil Ivey 7-2
Jeff Shulman 4-1
Steven Begleiter 11-2
Joe Cada 10-1
Kevin Schaffel 12-1
Antoine Saout 13-1
James Akenhead 15-1

IMO the smart money is on Buchman, Shulman, Cada, and Schaffel.

One thing this proves is how much influence ESPN's telecast has over the perception. I bet you would win a lot of money betting someone who had the higher % of chips at the final table - Raymer or Gold.

The hole in your research is measuring the "Ivey Factor". David Williams got 2nd with 6 percent, Jerry Yang won the thing with 6 percent, and Michael Binger folded his way to 3rd with only 3 percent.

Now measuring other people blowing up is probably impossible but will have an affect. Matt Dean's kamikaze play aided Raymer's cause. Kanter, Lazar, and Black all exploding in spots helped Hachem's cause. And this was in rather normal tournament conditions(as compared to today), with not as much hype and media. Someone is going to be in a spot, and regardless of stack size, going to blow up. Now add all the hype, and having Ivey at the table. The structure is slower, increasing the hands dealt for someone to blow up, increasing the chances Ivey finds Ivey spots to accumulate chips.

Being that the payouts are flatter this year and there is some competent players, I believe we are going to see more 3-betting pre then any final table in the past. Moon isnt going to be able to call on the button with a suited connector. He's going to have to sit back and be the nit or put tons of chips in the pot hoping to get lucky.

I enjoyed your post Dog Face. Thanks!

One other interesting note that might have implications regarding Ivey:

In the post-Moneymaker era "name" pros have typically failed to exceed expectations at the final table. Mike Matusow started 4th in chips in 2005 and finished 9th. Allen Cunningham started 2nd in chips in 2006 and finished 4th. Scotty Nguyen imploded in 11th in 2007. Andrew Black and Lee Watkinson also choked if you want to count them. Every TV pro has underwhelmed with the exception of Dan Harrington, who started 5th and finished 4th in 2004.

Granted, Cunningham and Matusow both lost in pretty brutal situations (Jamie Gold made a pretty bad call w/ KJ to win a flip vs. Allen while Matusow lost much of his stack in a KK vs. AA cooler), but the fact remains that neither was able to use his supposed edge to finish higher than where he started.

People think Ivey has an edge because he's experienced in high pressure situations, but I actually think Ivey is under MUCH more pressure than anyone else at the table. No one expects Joe Cada or Kevin Schaffel to win. No one will bat an eyelash if they go out in 9th, but Ivey has been hyped up to a ridiculous degree by the ESPN poker machine. Anything less than a win will be labeled a disappointment.

Then again, it's Phil f'n Ivey. This is the guy who single-handedly soulcrushed Andy Beal for gazillions. If anyone in poker is immune to pressure, it's probably him.

lol nvg

I agree with a lot of what you said. I did notice that David Williams and Michael Binger came up from no-man's land to finish high. I figure one of the three short stacks will probably manage to get on a run and work his way into the top 5 if not the top 3. Nevertheless, I think Ivey, Saout, and Akenhead are MAJOR longshots to win. Top 3? Maybe. Win? Just seems too unlikely given how far behind they are.

I do think you touched on an important x-factor though. Sooner or later someone is going to spew and whoever happens to be in the right place at the right time will benefit. Variance and luck will play a huge role in the outcome. I was watching the Yang final table last night and I couldn't help but think how lucky he was to get the right hands in the right situations against the right people. If someone like Khan or Kravchenko had been holding QQ vs. him when he shoved a rag flop w/ JJ, he probably would've been stacked. Ditto Jamie Gold when he called Allen Cunningham's shove w/ KJ. If Allen had AA or KK there then the outcome might have been different (of course, maybe Gold had a read that Allen was weak).

I think this year's final table might be the best in recent memory. Ivey is a beast. Buchman, Shulman, Cada, Schaffel, Akenhead, and Saout seem like solid players who would be +EV in any $10k NLHE tourney. Only Begleiter and Moon look like weak links, and Begs did make a WPT final table recently (FWIW). I don't see these guys spazzing out like people did against Jerry Yang. That's one of the reasons why I think Ivey and Akenhead are such longshots. Sure, they're probably the best NLHE tourney players in the field, but this group isn't going to get run over.

actually not a bad post and probably pretty accurate.

if i was betting it would be on buchman

my money's still on Ivey.

ivey vs akenhead heads up. ldo.

cant believe akenhead is the longest shot to win on bodog... hes clearly the 2nd best player at the table with only ivey beating him.

ivey to win, ldo