Phil Ivey wins 7.3m GBP in London, casino refuses to pay. Ivey sues. Loses Case. Appeals. Loses - Page 11 - Poker News

Baccarat info :

1. Is baccarat ( punto banco ) a - EV game ? Yes - Casino has about a 1.1 % edge

2. Do nearly everyone lose at baccarat ? Yes.

3. Do most people who lose at baccarat are undisciplined gamblers who have no self control in a casino ? Yes

4. Can anyone beat a -EV game? Yes. Billy Walters has won millions betting sports which is about a 5 % -EV which is almost 5 times worse than baccarat.

5. Is winning at baccarat or sports betting easy ? Absolutely not.

6. Can you win a -EV game if the standard deviation inevitably favors your betting pattern and you have the discipline to quit ( sort of a hit and run situation ) which Ivey uses . Yes

I play baccarat and have seen it happen many times. Do you always win ? No. Can you control when you quit the shoe and vary your bet size ? Yes Is this easy to do ? No.

sports betting and baccarat are not the same thing. In sports, like in poker, there is incomplete information and some people are skilled enough to take advantage of that well enough to be +EV even though they are playing a negative sum game. Baccarat is a house-edge game of complete information and as such cannot be beat over the long run unless you are cheating.

10-07-2012 , 02:51 PM

#252

J.A.M

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 117

Remebered reading this book a year ago, good read and highlights how they set up big whales in games like banco.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Hustlers.../dp/0283070498

10-07-2012 , 02:52 PM

#253

Deuces McKracken

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 9,335

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomddxx

queue the "we are all dumber now" speech from happy gilmore

10-07-2012 , 02:55 PM

#254

lolwasntme

journeyman

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 259

Quote:

Originally Posted by HurtK

this is probably the most ******ed post i have seen in a while.

Pretty much what they were saying in 2008..

10-07-2012 , 02:55 PM

#255

SumNewb

banned

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 820

Quote:

Originally Posted by inQ

Why are you saying that? Did you ever type that sentence to anyone or say it to anyone in real life before it became an internet meme, or do you just say it now because it's something you've seen other people say when they too have been left with nothing else left to say after someone destroyed their argument?

If so, that's pathetic, and if not you're a moron as he clearly isn't 'mad', he didn't even swear or insult you in his post.

u mad bro?

10-07-2012 , 03:33 PM

#256

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Pay the man

10-07-2012 , 03:41 PM

#257

reino

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 568

Ivey at the cashier after being refused to get the money : its problem

10-07-2012 , 03:57 PM

#258

irunreallybad

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 193

Quote:

Originally Posted by serio562

Haters gonna hate

ignoramus gonna ignore

10-07-2012 , 04:01 PM

#259

Elusive

adept

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,139

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnypokeher

In the Casino's latest statement they claim they paid Ivey the money but he ate it

i can confirm this

10-07-2012 , 04:13 PM

#260

DavidNB

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by SumNewb

You're either really dumb or being purposely difficult. If the first, you'll never understand my point. If the second, go fly a kite.

You moron, what point of the dividend issue do you fail to see? He owned shares in the company and was not on the board of directors or other positions that make decsions. Anyone who owns mutual funds has shares in companies. The people to blame are the ones that made the decsions. Ever wonder why the DOJ isn't going after every share holder? Why don t you think about that? He does not have your money so get off that horse and stop whinning about it.

Read this post I cut from another thread, it explains it better assuming of course the words are not to big for you

Quote:

Originally Posted by eapoker9

2+2ers - please learn the difference between an LLC member (owner who has no operational oversight of day to day activities whatsoever), a board member (provides strategic direction and fiduciary oversight of an entity, but no role in day to day operations), and an executive team member (Most senior employees responsible for all day to day operations). Each level has different culpability in FTP saga.

Ivey wasn't an employee. He was a member who received monthly disbursements (think a stock dividend) in return for making a series A investment in the company. Apparently he was bound by a non compete covenant as a part of that early investment as well, but he wasn't an employee.

I'm not saying Ivey (or other owners for that matter) is or isn't a good guy, but as a member of FTP he was not responsible for the player shortfall. He also isn't obligated to repay any member disbursements, unless he knowingly accepted any money post shortfall, which he didn't (Howard was the first board member to learn about the shortfall in April and members received no disbursements after April 15).

The management team at FTP made a series of horrible decisions that led to the shortfall. This was either due to incompetence at best, or was malicious at worst. The board was guilty of being asleep at the wheel and providing proper governance for the entity. Members were guilty of being complacent, but when an entity that was seeded with $750,000 by a bunch of degenerate gamblers throws off $40 million plus in annual dividends several years in a row, even if there are disagreements or personality tensions, who really is unhappy with corporate performance or wanting any sort of provocative change? By any corporate measure this is fantastic return on a modest investment.

It is unfortunate, dumb, and a shame that FTP got itself into the mess it did, but for members and to a lesser degree the board, it was far more the result of complacency and ignorance than malicious intent.

If Phil Ivey has brand value to another site, they will pay him to sponsor it. I suspect he does.

Last edited by DavidNB; 10-07-2012 at 04:31 PM.

10-07-2012 , 04:15 PM

#261

tomddxx

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 74

Quote:

Originally Posted by SumNewb

Casino advantage in bac :

1. -1.1 EV

Bettor's advantage in bac :

1. Casino must deal entire shoe ( can not shuffle up as in blackjack )
2. Bettor can sit out hands and not play every hand ( in Blackjack bettor usually must play every hand )
3. Bettor can vary bet size for each hand from zero to upper limit of the table which can be anywhere from zero to $ 50,000 without getting thrown out as in blackjack
4, Bettor can leave the shoe at any time, casino must deal the entire shoe.
5.Certain patterns repeat in every shoe from which the bettor can capitalize on..... and not bet when the pattern doesn't appear.

Can degenerate gamblers win at baccarat ( or poker ) ? No
Can you win at baccarat or poker without self discipline and self control of the emotions of fear and greed in the casino environment? No
Can you beat every shoe in baccarat ? No
Will you win every bet in baccarat ? NO
Does card counting work in baccarat ? NO
Is there standard deviation in every baccarat shoe ? Yes

NVG's are encouraged to do further research on this topic.

Last edited by tomddxx; 10-07-2012 at 04:25 PM.

10-07-2012 , 04:18 PM

#262

artisan

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 420

Quote:

Originally Posted by SumNewb

u mad bro?

Boom. I bet he didn't predict that! Someone replying to his criticism of a ******** moronic meme by using that meme. Noone has ever done that before, confirmed. You ****ing cretin hah.

10-07-2012 , 04:26 PM

#263

3BetBroke

banned

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,494

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomddxx

Isnt that... exactly what he said? That baccarat is unbeatable long term...? Jesus christ monkeyballs.

10-07-2012 , 04:27 PM

#264

davmcg

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,535

Quote:

Originally Posted by ramdeebam

Odds based on 7hours of play at one hand per minute, at £150k per stake and a hand is a coinflip, for anyone interested.

Win 10 hands or more than average (£1,500,000 win or better): ~18%
Win 20 hands or more than average (£3,000,000 win or better): ~2,8%
Win 30 hands or more than average (£4,500,000 win or better): ~0,19%
Win 40 hands or more than average (£6,000,000 win or better): ~0.0055%
Win 50 hands or more than average (£7,500,000 win or better): ~0.000061%

Not sure how you calculated this but using gamblers ruin

if ivey starts with 10 bets of 100k and decides to play till he has 8m or goes broke and he is 49.5% to win each coup

He will get there 6% of the time

on the same basis on flips he makes the 8m 1/8 of the time, which is logical when you think about it.

10-07-2012 , 04:35 PM

#265

coltranedog

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 588

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomddxx

Baccarat info :

4. Can anyone beat a -EV game? Yes. Billy Walters has won millions betting sports which is about a 5 % -EV which is almost 5 times worse than baccarat.

5. Is winning at baccarat or sports betting easy ? Absolutely not.

Not going to get into the rest of what you posted, but LOL at comparing a non skill casino game like baccarat to betting on sports.

The two couldn't be any more different. You can beat sports longterm and consistently if you make a more accurate line than the bookmaker by a high enough margin to overcome the vig.

You can never beat a pit game in the long run abiding by the casino's rules - no shot.

10-07-2012 , 04:39 PM

#266

andyg2001

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by coltranedog

Blackjack is a pit game and can be beat in the long run.

10-07-2012 , 04:43 PM

#267

pissychips

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 2,029

Bet if he was white then there would be no problem.

10-07-2012 , 04:49 PM

#268

SumNewb

banned

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 820

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavidNB

That he (allegedly) did not make the decision to steal the money does not change the fact that he is gambling with stolen money.

10-07-2012 , 04:54 PM

#269

SumNewb

banned

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 820

Quote:

Originally Posted by coltranedog

For anybody unaware, coltranedog (Haralabos Voulgaris) is a legend, particularly on this topic:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19...is-bob-763371/

10-07-2012 , 04:56 PM

#270

jamalshabazz

banned

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 92

Quote:

Originally Posted by andyg2001

Blackjack is a pit game and can be beat in the long run.

What casino do you play BJ?

10-07-2012 , 04:59 PM

#271

jeflax

journeyman

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 287

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomddxx

Baccarat info :

3. Do most people who lose at baccarat are undisciplined gamblers who have no self control in a casino ? Yes

4. Can anyone beat a -EV game? Yes. Billy Walters has won millions betting sports which is about a 5 % -EV which is almost 5 times worse than baccarat.

LOL, Legit degen

10-07-2012 , 05:00 PM

#272

DavidNB

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,332

Quote:

Originally Posted by SumNewb

That he (allegedly) did not make the decision to steal the money does not change the fact that he is gambling with stolen money.

Negative. The money he has was not stolen. AS a shareholder he received returns by the company he invested in. He has the money free and clear.

The people who mismangned your money, are the board of directors who approved these dividends. They are the ones you have to go after.

Ever wonder why DOJ isn t trying to get the dividends back from all the shareholders?

10-07-2012 , 05:23 PM

#273

coltranedog

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 588

Quote:

Originally Posted by andyg2001

Blackjack is a pit game and can be beat in the long run.

I said "not by the casino's rules" card counting isn't necessarily against the casino's rules but if you count or shuffle track they'll ban you.

10-07-2012 , 05:25 PM

#274

eh777

banned

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,746

Quote:

Originally Posted by Czar Chasm

This is a ridiculous statement. All of the owners were in on the decision to make dividend payments and they all pressured the board to do them and increase them over time.

Ivey wasn't part of the board and you have no evidence that he pressured to board into anything.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dpain

The problem with hearing a bunch of people say this that just tilts the **** out of me is the fact that you fail to see Phil Ivey was not just an employee but rather an owner. If you are the owner of a company you should probably take some interest in making sure that whoever is running the company is running a tight ship.

You're just showing an incredible lack of understanding of this situation and business in general, Ivey made an agreement to not be part of the board because his poker and lifestyle got in the way of that, he has no responsibility to run the company, and being a shareholder does not mean he even has the power to 'make sure' the company is being run the way he wants it to, he has no control over it.