Quote:
Originally Posted by Feeble Gimmick
As a ballpark guess of the probability of this:
House edge (assuming banker bet every time) = 1.06%
=> assume probability of winning = 0.4947
7.3m @ 150k / bet = 48.7 bets profit
Assume 30s / hand over 7 hrs = 840 hands
=> need probability of winning at least 444 (losing 396)
Using a binomial calculator with p = 0.4947, n = 840, x = 444, the probability of winning at least this much is 2.7%.
I guess the chance of doing this without going busto first is a bit lower, but who can say if he would have rebought.
Apparently 60 hands per hour is normal reducing the chance of winning the 7.3M to 0.006%.
Of course he started at 50K a hand making it even a lot lower.
Still nothing significant though.
If he had eaten something and stretched his leggs and went to the bathroom and only played 50 hands per hour I can imagine they get very suspicious.
In that case the chance of winning the 7.3M is lot lower than 0.00000003%.
How much lower exactly depends on how many hands he played at 50K.
If the whole story is true at all this could well be the reason for the investigation.