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Old 01-26-2017, 07:05 AM   #151
onebiggrind
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

If the jackpot is hit half goes to the person who hit it.
The other half is distributed evenly among everyone who has played The Deal in the previous 12 hours.
So if the jackpot was 400k and 100k people had played in the previous 12 hours, 200k (half the jackpot) would be split between 100k people = $2 each
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Old 01-26-2017, 07:32 AM   #152
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by onebiggrind View Post
If the jackpot is hit half goes to the person who hit it.
The other half is distributed evenly among everyone who has played The Deal in the previous 12 hours.
So if the jackpot was 400k and 100k people had played in the previous 12 hours, 200k (half the jackpot) would be split between 100k people = $2 each
Ok - then there is almost no reason to play for 70 FPP.
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Old 01-26-2017, 07:40 AM   #153
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by onebiggrind View Post
How do you mean? The jackpot hasn't been hit. And when it is it'll be more than $.65 shared.

This was a few weeks ago
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Old 01-26-2017, 07:51 AM   #154
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by Scooter_ View Post
Ok - then there is almost no reason to play for 70 FPP.
that's why it's a "skill game" in a way - because different ways of playing it have different ev (with playing for 7 cents once every 12 hours being max ev)
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Old 01-26-2017, 08:17 AM   #155
onebiggrind
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

I mean the highest EV strat is binary -
a) play infinite times every 12 hours (when you're +EV even without the shared portion of the jackpot)
b) play once every 12 hours (otherwise)

yeah this is just a different way of saying the same thing
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Old 01-26-2017, 01:59 PM   #156
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by onebiggrind View Post
I mean the highest EV strat is binary -
a) play infinite times every 12 hours (when you're +EV even without the shared portion of the jackpot)
b) play once every 12 hours (otherwise)

yeah this is just a different way of saying the same thing
Is it +EV to bust my coins balance now? SHould I bet 7 ot 70 every time?
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Old 01-26-2017, 05:47 PM   #157
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Seems like the value is almost identical based on calculations earlier in this thread, and the value per pull is about 1.6x given current jackpot of about 430k.

So a 70 coin game valued at 70 cents yields about 110-115 cents. Should be quite rare for it to get this big so probably worth liquidating whatever you have.
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Old 01-26-2017, 06:25 PM   #158
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

The downside of this game is obv that any game with a coin buy in gets more reggier
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Old 01-26-2017, 07:12 PM   #159
Derpdeedoo
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by Abbaddabba View Post
Seems like the value is almost identical based on calculations earlier in this thread, and the value per pull is about 1.6x given current jackpot of about 430k.

So a 70 coin game valued at 70 cents yields about 110-115 cents. Should be quite rare for it to get this big so probably worth liquidating whatever you have.
Are those calcs accurate though? Some people say they aren't.
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Old 01-26-2017, 07:51 PM   #160
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Are those calcs accurate though? Some people say they aren't.
They are. Though its not rare to hit 440K.
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Old 01-26-2017, 07:58 PM   #161
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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They are. Though its not rare to hit 440K.
Thanks for your excel calc on the previous page youriw21. What do you think the probability that the jackpot hits 440k again in the next two months is?
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Old 01-26-2017, 08:24 PM   #162
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by Don't mind me View Post
Thanks for your excel calc on the previous page youriw21. What do you think the probability that the jackpot hits 440k again in the next two months is?
Without doing any math.. I'd say 1-2 times
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Old 01-26-2017, 09:13 PM   #163
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by obviousTROLL View Post
Is it +EV to bust my coins balance now? SHould I bet 7 ot 70 every time?
yes, it's +EV to bust your account right now. Would need a massive bankroll for kelly to approve however
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Old 01-26-2017, 09:24 PM   #164
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Here's another analysis of the EV:
https://chrislo.ca/the-expected-valu...at-pokerstars/

And wrt the rarity of the jackpot getting this big, is there any list of historic jackpots on stars? here's one for fulltilt which should produce the same size jackpots just stretched over longer periods of time.

http://online.casinocity.com/article...pot-won-124472

It shows 6 consecutive jackpots
233k, 90k, 204k, 109k, 221k and 389k.
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:04 AM   #165
OhEllNo
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

how much worth my 7fpp placement right now ?
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:31 AM   #166
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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how much worth my 7fpp placement right now ?
it was said million times already - there is now way to calculate ev, because majority of ev from one game depends on both your and ALL the other participants' playing patterns
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Old 01-27-2017, 03:27 AM   #167
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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it was said million times already - there is now way to calculate ev, because majority of ev from one game depends on both your and ALL the other participants' playing patterns
I hope this hasn't been said a million times seeing as it is blatantly incorrect.
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Old 01-27-2017, 03:31 AM   #168
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by brianhastings View Post
yes, it's +EV to bust your account right now. Would need a massive bankroll for kelly to approve however
About the nature of this being +ev. This coment nails it.
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Old 01-27-2017, 04:17 AM   #169
Joe Knott
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by brianhastings View Post
I hope this hasn't been said a million times seeing as it is blatantly incorrect.
Yeah. Basically the one 7-coins bet every 12 hours is always profitable, while EV of the consequent bets is very easy to calculate (and should not depend on players' patterns really).
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Old 01-27-2017, 09:29 AM   #170
obviousTROLL
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Is it +EV to bust my coins balance now? Should I bet 7 ot 70 every time?
Well, that's how I lost my 20000 coins. I really hope it was +EV attempt to win big.
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:47 PM   #171
pechkin
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

the dissapointment when you dont win isnt worth the risk
also you still have to sit there and press buttons every 10 spins so time is wasted too, stick to 1 every 12
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Old 01-27-2017, 01:43 PM   #172
Tutejszy
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by brianhastings View Post
I hope this hasn't been said a million times seeing as it is blatantly incorrect.
ok, I overstated it with "majority of ev", but there is still difference in ev depending on wether in next 12 hours other players will stick to 1 game with max ev or punt off more - and you can't predict future while calculating ev
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Old 01-27-2017, 02:47 PM   #173
CoreySteel
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

You didn't really overstate, it's was just wrong. Betting pattern doesn't matter for your EV* in "7sc/12hr strategy". What matters is number of players that put a bet in.


* I mean, sure, it does. Prizepool's gonna be 421k instead of 420k, but it won't change your EV really.
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Old 01-27-2017, 04:00 PM   #174
pechkin
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

also is my math correct that the chance to hit royal flush is 5/13*4/51*3/50*2/49*1/48?
if so, then the chance in the chart is like 100 times higher than it is, 0.0000015390771693 is what i get? my math may be wrong tho, but it looks more realistic, i mean it's unlikely that you can hit royal flush once in 10000 spins, there would be royal flushes flushing everywhere
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Old 01-27-2017, 04:36 PM   #175
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

nvm its % vs actual number, thats where 100x comes from
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