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Old 12-28-2016, 06:37 PM   #101
Kelvis
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by RecreationalPlayer View Post
Im not a lawyer, so I have no idea, much like everyone else in this thread.

I know it wont be going away anytime soon, and I also know that the people on 2+2 have never achieved anything by moaning about it. Remember the boycotts? They turned out well didn't they? NVG is just a bunch of bitter break even players bitching about everything stars does these days.
But let's not dismiss the idea that stars could very well just think they can get away with it, it's not like that has not happened before.

The boycott was a nice idea but it should have lasted for like a month causing games to stop running so recs have better alternatives. Of course then some regs go play anyways because of the easy games. Until enough people voice their opinions with their wallets stars won't give a ****.
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Old 12-28-2016, 09:25 PM   #102
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Not sure why everyone is talking about casino licences and they shouldn't be offering it in their jurisdiction. I am pretty sure in the eyes of the law, gambling stars coin is not technically gambling. I imagine they would need to do in $ or something.

I am also fairly confident that PokerStars legal team is better than the nerds on 2+2 and has at least looked in this...
Of course it's gambling, and the fact that it's a "zero sum" game is also irrelevant.

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Originally Posted by RecreationalPlayer View Post
Im not a lawyer, so I have no idea, much like everyone else in this thread.

I know it wont be going away anytime soon, and I also know that the people on 2+2 have never achieved anything by moaning about it. Remember the boycotts? They turned out well didn't they? NVG is just a bunch of bitter break even players bitching about everything stars does these days.
The boycotts may not have had a direct effect, but they were part of a bigger picture including multiple threads, press reports, podcast etc. all adding to the pressure and bad press. Many others, myself included, haven't played there during 2016. Stars have suffered because of their terrible decisions and the uproar that followed. What did you do to help the cause- or did you just moan about people moaning?
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Old 12-28-2016, 11:29 PM   #103
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Last time I looked stars was still operating and still the biggest online poker room, they are signing big sports players and advertising on TV daily. I'd say the boycotts achieved nothing.

I did not take part in the boycotts as I didn't take issue with the argument. The impact of anything stars does is insignificant to my life. I think if the actions of an online game cause people significant reason to change their lifestyle then they need to consider the fact they might of made some poor decisions along the way.
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Old 12-29-2016, 01:37 AM   #104
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

It was always going to take longer than 12 months for them to commit Hari Kari.

If you were talented enough to make a living from poker then I imagine your views would have more closely aligned with those who tried to salvage the health of the game.
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Old 12-29-2016, 01:47 AM   #105
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Are you saying that because they are doing it that means it is 100% legal and not even grey area? Have we learned nothing from black Friday?
In Australia there is definitely no such loophole.

However - the legal restrictions around a lottery are definitely way different than a gambling game. So, if the game conforms to a lottery definition, then it would be possibly seen differently by the Australian legal system, than say - BlackJack.
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Old 12-29-2016, 01:59 AM   #106
poiulkjh
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

I am a pro reg player and I like The Deal

Its a nice game, easy and fun, already won some money on it

Actually I made some quick math and if the jackpot is around 200k it is for sure +EV to play the game

I could to it exactly to see what exactly number on the jackpot turns it to +EV, maybe will do it later

=)
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Old 12-29-2016, 02:02 AM   #107
poiulkjh
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Noticed someone already did it lol

Wont do it so =)

If the jackpot is over 100k I am playing it will all my StarsCoins, I dont mind

Theres always the implied odds on winning 50k anyway lol

Who cares about Rakeback? Rely on Rakeback to be profitable is soooooooooo 2009/2010

Winning players today dont need Rakeback, we are just good and beat the game FOR REAL

Last edited by poiulkjh; 12-29-2016 at 02:08 AM.
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Old 12-29-2016, 05:13 AM   #108
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

EV neutral is nowhere near 270K. i think they change the odds when they released it on stars, its like the 6th jackpot under 120K so... kinda lame when you cant win more than 1,32$ in shares.

they should put the odds in a way the jackpot hit close to 500K.
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Old 12-29-2016, 05:19 AM   #109
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by OhEllNo View Post
EV neutral is nowhere near 270K. i think they change the odds when they released it on stars, its like the 6th jackpot under 120K so... kinda lame when you cant win more than 1,32$ in shares.

they should put the odds in a way the jackpot hit close to 500K.
:
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Originally Posted by GentlemanJack View Post
Huh?

There is a lack of basic understanding of numbers and statistics in your post.

The point at which someone wins does NOT reflect (or have to coincide with) the EV neutral number!

The EV neutral number is what it is - some prizes will be won below this number and others above it, that's just variance. In fact there's no guarantee that the point at which someone wins will be anywhere near 270K at any time ever. The 270K merely reflects where you can expect to start theoretical profitability, it does not guarantee that it will happen.
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Old 12-29-2016, 05:20 AM   #110
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Are you saying that because they are doing it that means it is 100% legal and not even grey area? Have we learned nothing from black Friday?
I asked pokerstars support why/how they offer a casino game to me in a grey market with no casino and can they ban it, i feel like i am breaking a law by playing it. This was the response in which they clearly admit it is a casino offering




Hello,

Our apologies but we cannot solely disable 'The Deal' - we can however block your access to all Casino games (which included The Deal).

Will this suffice and for how long should such a restriction be in place?

Regards,
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Old 12-29-2016, 05:21 AM   #111
poiulkjh
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

7 stars coins is worth 7 cents right?

So you need to spend 14 cents a day to be always getting the shares

This of course is EV lol since the jackpots are getting hit once or twice a day

14 cents to get 1 dollar everyday, who created this game is a genius
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Old 12-29-2016, 05:22 AM   #112
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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ok but in this case why do we never see 400K jackpot ?

and why the first thing people wanted to know was the EV neutral number if its worth nothing to know ?
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Old 12-29-2016, 05:28 AM   #113
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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ok but in this case why do we never see 400K jackpot ?
Because so far, someone has won it before it's ever reached 400 K, of course. That doesn't change the point at which playing is +EV.

I have no idea if the calculations are right, but pointing at the time a number of jackpots have been won as being proof that they're incorrect is silly. Just like if you were dealt AA 10 times in 1500 hands, that doesn't mean the odds of being dealt AA aren't 1 in 220.

If you see an error in the math, you should post it.

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and why the first thing people wanted to know was the EV neutral number if its worth nothing to know ?
Yeah, pretty sure now you have no idea what "EV neutral number" even means.
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Old 12-29-2016, 05:32 AM   #114
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

if they think jackpots hitting too much is bad they can change it to only Royal Flush or only Royal Flush of some specefic suit (diamonds for instance)
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Old 12-29-2016, 05:44 AM   #115
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

OhEllNo, let's try an example:

Let's say there was an extremely -EV game that had a progressive jackpot that kept growing until somebody won it. The game is $1 to play, and the house edge is so extreme that you only expect $0.50 back on average each play, not including the jackpot. $0.10 of that is going to the jackpot, and $0.40 to the house.

In this game, the odds of hitting the jackpot are 1 in 1,000. Since you're losing $0.50 per hand, you need to make that much from the jackpot to make the game neutral EV - that won't happen until the jackpot reaches $500. However, since only $0.10 per hand goes to the jackpot, it would take 5000 hands for that to happen. Given that the odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 1000, it's not often going to reach $500.
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Old 12-29-2016, 03:46 PM   #116
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by Bobo Fett View Post
Because so far, someone has won it before it's ever reached 400 K, of course. That doesn't change the point at which playing is +EV.

I have no idea if the calculations are right, but pointing at the time a number of jackpots have been won as being proof that they're incorrect is silly. Just like if you were dealt AA 10 times in 1500 hands, that doesn't mean the odds of being dealt AA aren't 1 in 220.

If you see an error in the math, you should post it.


Yeah, pretty sure now you have no idea what "EV neutral number" even means.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett View Post
OhEllNo, let's try an example:

Let's say there was an extremely -EV game that had a progressive jackpot that kept growing until somebody won it. The game is $1 to play, and the house edge is so extreme that you only expect $0.50 back on average each play, not including the jackpot. $0.10 of that is going to the jackpot, and $0.40 to the house.

In this game, the odds of hitting the jackpot are 1 in 1,000. Since you're losing $0.50 per hand, you need to make that much from the jackpot to make the game neutral EV - that won't happen until the jackpot reaches $500. However, since only $0.10 per hand goes to the jackpot, it would take 5000 hands for that to happen. Given that the odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 1000, it's not often going to reach $500.
thanks for your precision. so 'EV neutral' is not translation of the jackpot odds multiplied by 0.02$ (the part of the 0.07$ that go into the jackpot) ? like in your example i thought the EV neutral was 100$ (10 cents X 1000 hands). whats the name of that 100$ ? do we have a insight when the jackpot just pass the 100$ bar?

i understand that AA can be dealt before or after 220 hands, its variance. but when AA come 9 times in 700 hands, i expect the next AA to come after lets say 350 hands because the variance was so much on one side for so long.
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Old 12-30-2016, 03:19 AM   #117
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by OhEllNo View Post
i understand that AA can be dealt before or after 220 hands, its variance. but when AA come 9 times in 700 hands, i expect the next AA to come after lets say 350 hands because the variance was so much on one side for so long.
The idea that variance evens out in the long run can be very misleading. If it's a fair deck it's just as likely for AA to be dealt before 220 hands as it is after, regardless of whats happened before.


As far as The Deal; I had casino games blocked but they added TD unblocked to my client. Seems theyre being pretty shady with this. Id assumed they didnt consider it a casino games since it wasnt for "actual" money but seems they refer to it as a casino game so IDK.
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Old 12-30-2016, 04:32 AM   #118
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by OhEllNo View Post
thanks for your precision. so 'EV neutral' is not translation of the jackpot odds multiplied by 0.02$ (the part of the 0.07$ that go into the jackpot) ? like in your example i thought the EV neutral was 100$ (10 cents X 1000 hands). whats the name of that 100$ ? do we have a insight when the jackpot just pass the 100$ bar?
I don't know if there's a name of that $100, but it's nothing more than a calculation of what we should expect the pot to reach, on average, before it is won. Of course it will not often hit at that exact amount.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OhEllNo View Post
i understand that AA can be dealt before or after 220 hands, its variance. but when AA come 9 times in 700 hands, i expect the next AA to come after lets say 350 hands because the variance was so much on one side for so long.
Seems like you're a believer in Gambler's Fallacy, to your detriment, as it appears to have you focused on the wrong things.
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Old 12-30-2016, 03:14 PM   #119
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

I calculated the break even point of 'the deal' at around 38k$

How do you calucalte EV?
0= winnings * probabilty of winnig - loses * (1-probabilty of winnig)
x= size of the jp
i looked up all probabiltys for all hands at wikipedia (only german version, the english guys were to lazy to fill in the propabilitys)
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hand_(..._aus_52_Karten and calculate it for the 70coins game (you have to play 10x more games to realize your ev with the 7coin games)

0= - 0,7*0,501 (we hit in 50,1% highcard and lose 0,70$ [with a coinrate from 1000coins=10$ like you can trade them in the shop]) - 0,6*0,423 (one pair) + 0,0475*0 (two pair) + 2,3*0,0211 (trips) + 9,3*0,00392 (straight) + 24,30*0,00197 (flush) + 74,3*0,00144 (full house) + 299,3*0,00024 (four of a kind) + x*0,5*0,0000154
x=38028,57$(straight flush & royal flush, *0,5 because you get in the jp-round and win there in 50% the jp)

i didnt include in this calculation that you also win money in the jp-round if you dont hit the jackpot and i didnt include that you have a share if somebody else wins the jp

so the jp has to be around 38k$ to play break even, but you need min. 7 000 000 000 000 coins to realize your equity.... i dont think any person on this planet could be able to realize your +EV spot in this game so it's just gambling
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Old 12-30-2016, 03:23 PM   #120
Kelvis
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by OhEllNo View Post
i understand that AA can be dealt before or after 220 hands, its variance. but when AA come 9 times in 700 hands, i expect the next AA to come after lets say 350 hands because the variance was so much on one side for so long.
You may expect that, you may even bet on it but you would be wrong. It's a fact, not an opinion. But given you used about 350 as an example I would bet on you being a troll.
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Old 12-30-2016, 04:01 PM   #121
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by wlaaaaad View Post
I calculated the break even point of 'the deal' at around 38k$

How do you calucalte EV?
0= winnings * probabilty of winnig - loses * (1-probabilty of winnig)
x= size of the jp
i looked up all probabiltys for all hands at wikipedia (only german version, the english guys were to lazy to fill in the propabilitys)
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hand_(..._aus_52_Karten and calculate it for the 70coins game (you have to play 10x more games to realize your ev with the 7coin games)

0= - 0,7*0,501 (we hit in 50,1% highcard and lose 0,70$ [with a coinrate from 1000coins=10$ like you can trade them in the shop]) - 0,6*0,423 (one pair) + 0,0475*0 (two pair) + 2,3*0,0211 (trips) + 9,3*0,00392 (straight) + 24,30*0,00197 (flush) + 74,3*0,00144 (full house) + 299,3*0,00024 (four of a kind) + x*0,5*0,0000154
x=38028,57$(straight flush & royal flush, *0,5 because you get in the jp-round and win there only 50% the jp)

i didnt include in this calculation that you also win money in the jp-round if you dont hit the jackpot and i didnt include that you have a share if somebody else wins the jp

so the jp has to be around 38k$ to play break even, but you need min. 7 000 000 000 000 coins to realize your equity.... i dont think any person on this planet could be able to realize your +EV spot in this game so it's just gambling
i made a mistake you have to multiply 38k* 8 because we only hit 1/8 times the jp in the jackpotround
so the jackpot has to be around 304k to make a plus ev choice.
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Old 12-30-2016, 04:10 PM   #122
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by OhEllNo View Post
i understand that AA can be dealt before or after 220 hands, its variance. but when AA come 9 times in 700 hands, i expect the next AA to come after lets say 350 hands because the variance was so much on one side for so long.
I would expect it in under 220 hands because of the slight possibility that the RNG is broken in my favor.
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Old 12-30-2016, 05:35 PM   #123
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by wlaaaaad View Post
i made a mistake you have to multiply 38k* 8 because we only hit 1/8 times the jp in the jackpotround
so the jackpot has to be around 304k to make a plus ev choice.
And when you add that in 7/8 chances you get $2286 on average, you get 276k as +EV number, which was posted a week ago already :P
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Old 12-31-2016, 03:06 AM   #124
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Does anyone know if the wheel is a true 1/8 wheel?
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Old 12-31-2016, 05:56 AM   #125
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

A guy i kind of know who is staked won it. Pretty insane . He said thanks for the $
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