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Old 12-24-2016, 12:01 AM   #51
Barry Champlain
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

please delete

Last edited by Barry Champlain; 12-24-2016 at 12:03 AM. Reason: image wouldn't work #fail
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Old 12-24-2016, 01:07 AM   #52
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Invested 20$ Starscoins i did get 10$ from hitting (a straight i think)
I received 1.26$ from somebody hitting the jackpot OK THEN
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Old 12-24-2016, 08:32 AM   #53
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by youriw21 View Post
Hmm i get different numbers.

When you play for 70sc you have 2 ways to win JP, straight flush or RoyalFlush: the BE point is 100/(0.00139+0.000154)*8*0.7$=362k since you get only half of the jackpot this means jackpot needs to be 724k to play BE

When you play for 7sc the BE point is 100/0.000154*8*0.07$=363k = Jackpot needs to be 726k to BE

Neglecting all the other prices here, but they don't have that much of an impact. Correct me if i'm wrong
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Old 12-24-2016, 08:45 AM   #54
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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For every 7 StarsCoin used to play The Deal, we add $0.028 to the progressive jackpot - 77% goes into the current jackpot and 23% is set aside for future jackpots. The rest is distributed to players in the form of regular prizes. Each jackpot starts from $25,000.
This is also a nice one, Amaya takes 60% of every 7sc and only put 40% in the jackpots. Of that 40% 77% to the current one, 23% to future jackpots. (How far in the future are we talking here?)

For every 7sc 0.02156$ is put in to the current jackpot.
Since the jackpot will fall 1 in (100/0.000154)*8= 1 in 5.194Million
The amount contributed will be 5.194M*0.02156$=$112k+$25k (start amount) = $137k
So on average the Jackpot will be $137k worth, 50% going to the winner.

Seems like a ----EV game.
Nice way to cut RB and do some marketing at the same time!

Last edited by SemiFreddo; 12-24-2016 at 08:59 AM.
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Old 12-24-2016, 05:09 PM   #55
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by SemiFreddo View Post
This is also a nice one, Amaya takes 60% of every 7sc
This is incorrect. This 60% is distributed back to the players in regular prizes. For instance, one pair = 2 starscoin, two pair = 7 starscoin etc. The game actually isn't raked at all. All the money either goes into the regular prizes or the jackpot share. Stars/amaya does not directly profit from this (but may indirectly)
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Old 12-24-2016, 07:25 PM   #56
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Pokerstars going downhill fast.
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Old 12-24-2016, 07:57 PM   #57
SemiFreddo
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by Mr Invisible View Post
This is incorrect. This 60% is distributed back to the players in regular prizes. For instance, one pair = 2 starscoin, two pair = 7 starscoin etc. The game actually isn't raked at all. All the money either goes into the regular prizes or the jackpot share. Stars/amaya does not directly profit from this (but may indirectly)
Hmm ok lets see:
0.028$ goes to Jackpot, of which 77% to current one = 0.02156$
The rest go's to the other prices = 0.07-0.028=0.042$
This should mean the EV of a normal spin should be at least 0.02156+0.042=0.06356$
And the EV for a 70sc spin should be $0.6356

Given they add 25k$ to the initial Jackpot you would assume the EV of 1 game is slightly higher than this number. But when we do the calculation for a 25k jackpot we see that the EV of a 70sc spin is $0.46



When i add in all the other prices i also get that the jackpot needs to be around 276k for it to be +EV. youriw21 also got this number.

So its strange that Stars says they don't profit from this.
When the numbers say they do.
So we've either been miscalculating or they are lying or allocated wrong prices to the hand values.

Now you could think this is because when the jackpot hits the winner gets half, the other half to those who played last 12hrs.
But even when we allocate 100% of the jackpot to the winner for simplicity sake, The EV of a 70sc spin is only $0.49

Last edited by SemiFreddo; 12-24-2016 at 08:02 PM.
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Old 12-24-2016, 08:09 PM   #58
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

GamboolStars (TM)
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Old 12-24-2016, 09:44 PM   #59
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

That's kinda crazy, it seems to hit like everyday since it's on Stars also.
When it was on FTP, we had to wait like 6-7 months until it finally hits. Jackpot was something like 380k and I received ~165$ as a share of it.
I didn't calculate how much I spent in rakeback playing at least twice a day but I'm sure it was more than EV+ doing it, even if I didn't have any significant win in the game itself, except one time quads for 20$.
Makes me laugh when you say you had 0.72$ as a "share" of the jackpot
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Old 12-24-2016, 10:04 PM   #60
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by ShowMeUrAce View Post
Makes me laugh when you say you had 0.72$ as a "share" of the jackpot
I got 48 cent.
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Old 12-24-2016, 10:22 PM   #61
Mr Invisible
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by SemiFreddo View Post
Hmm ok lets see:
0.028$ goes to Jackpot, of which 77% to current one = 0.02156$
The rest go's to the other prices = 0.07-0.028=0.042$
This should mean the EV of a normal spin should be at least 0.02156+0.042=0.06356$
And the EV for a 70sc spin should be $0.6356

Given they add 25k$ to the initial Jackpot you would assume the EV of 1 game is slightly higher than this number. But when we do the calculation for a 25k jackpot we see that the EV of a 70sc spin is $0.46



When i add in all the other prices i also get that the jackpot needs to be around 276k for it to be +EV. youriw21 also got this number.

So its strange that Stars says they don't profit from this.
When the numbers say they do.
So we've either been miscalculating or they are lying or allocated wrong prices to the hand values.

Now you could think this is because when the jackpot hits the winner gets half, the other half to those who played last 12hrs.
But even when we allocate 100% of the jackpot to the winner for simplicity sake, The EV of a 70sc spin is only $0.49
Yes you definitely have miscalculated. First there is the fact that a proportion of the jackpot (23%) goes towards future jackpots. This cannot be ignored, as it is part of the EV. The jackpots always begin at $25k, but that money has to come from somewhere and that's where it comes from. Then there is the fact that there isn't really a constant EV. Someone who plays 100 games every 12 hours will have a very different EV per game than someone who only plays one game every 12 hours. This is all to do with the distribution of the prizes. Finally, we cannot ignore the fact that Stars themselves have claimed the game is rake free. They could be sued if they were found to be lying about this so we have to take their word for it.
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Old 12-24-2016, 10:41 PM   #62
ShowMeUrAce
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by LOLNHDONKWP View Post
I got 48 cent.
On the other hand, if it hits twice a day and you spend only 7 coins every 12 hours, it's totally worthy
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Old 12-24-2016, 11:38 PM   #63
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

i get a nice tingly feeling when i see nvg being smart and stuff, its a nice present in the spirit of christmas
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Old 12-25-2016, 01:38 AM   #64
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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i get a nice tingly feeling when i see nvg being smart and stuff, its a nice present in the spirit of christmas
Cool story, bro
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Old 12-25-2016, 02:01 AM   #65
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by jungleman View Post
i get a nice tingly feeling when i see nvg being smart and stuff, its a nice present in the spirit of christmas
Well jungle, to follow the spirit of Christmas, I will be the grinch:

Where's Thomas the Dwane and pls provide an update on the challenge, ty.
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Old 12-25-2016, 02:08 AM   #66
Mr Invisible
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by jungleman View Post
i get a nice tingly feeling when i see nvg being smart and stuff, its a nice present in the spirit of christmas
By smart, are you referring to my comment about the math of the game? If so, then I feel honoured to receive the approval of such a celebrity poker player as yourself!
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Old 12-25-2016, 06:05 AM   #67
SemiFreddo
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by Mr Invisible View Post
Yes you definitely have miscalculated. First there is the fact that a proportion of the jackpot (23%) goes towards future jackpots. This cannot be ignored, as it is part of the EV. The jackpots always begin at $25k, but that money has to come from somewhere and that's where it comes from. Then there is the fact that there isn't really a constant EV. Someone who plays 100 games every 12 hours will have a very different EV per game than someone who only plays one game every 12 hours. This is all to do with the distribution of the prizes. Finally, we cannot ignore the fact that Stars themselves have claimed the game is rake free. They could be sued if they were found to be lying about this so we have to take their word for it.
Like i said i calculated in this 23% factor
The factor that 50% of the Jackpot is distributed to all those played last 12 hours is factored in as well.

Ofc there can be flaws in my calculation, feel free to point them out.
I am getting the same numbers as youriw21 is getting.

The odds of the different hand values are also calculated here:
http://www.math.hawaii.edu/~ramsey/P...okerHands.html

I have no idea where the flaw is.

Quote:
Stars themselves have claimed the game is rake free. They could be sued if they were found to be lying about this so we have to take their word for it.
Well if everyone is always taking everybody's word for anything, nobody will be sued. It's not a matter of taking their word for this, you can just calculate to proof if their word holds.
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Old 12-25-2016, 09:44 AM   #68
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

How many here have played 95% of the daily 500$ All-in shoot outs this year?

Hooooooooooooi
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Old 12-25-2016, 10:25 AM   #69
samooth
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

i think the real question here is whether stars allows scripts to auto play a 7sc deal every 12h
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Old 12-25-2016, 10:50 AM   #70
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by Mr Invisible View Post
Then there is the fact that there isn't really a constant EV. Someone who plays 100 games every 12 hours will have a very different EV per game than someone who only plays one game every 12 hours.
We are talking EV per game/hand played

Quote:
Originally Posted by SemiFreddo View Post

I have no idea where the flaw is.
There is no flaw. As Stars is mentioning, it is not being raked. The value for them is in small (rec) players wanting to play the deal every 12 hours when the JP is high in order to get a cut of the JP. Therefor they need to play/deposit/rake in order to get coins.

About the math: in a 7 coins/cents game, they will pay out 4.2 cent in prizes and 2.8 cent is added to the jackpot. of which 77% (2.16 cent) to the current jp and 23% (0.64 cent) is set aside for future jackpots.

Now I believe they say jackpots (plural) because they always let a jackpot start at atleast 25K. Sometimes they will not have raked enough $$ for the next jackpot to start at 25K (When a JP is hit when it is low). So in the end they make sure they don't have to add $$ themselfs to let a JP start at 25K.

Then you calculated that a JP will hit on average at around 137K. Now I did not take the effort to calculate this myself, but if Stars wants the promo to be more successful I suggest they add more segments on the wheel and let the JP hit when it is on average 500K. Because in this pace it will reach 137K every 1/2 days. (maybe cause it is still new)

About the BE point. When the game is not raked, then why are we calculating this . There is ofcourse some hidden value in playing it every 12 hours which is difficult to calculate. Regardless of how high the JP is, there is a lot more value in the first hand played every 12 hours, then in the 2nd. If coins are limited and you want to play it safe, then wait for the JP to exceed 280K and play it once every 12 hours at 7 coins.

Last edited by youriw21; 12-25-2016 at 10:58 AM.
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Old 12-25-2016, 02:22 PM   #71
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

1.58 gone in.

UPS!
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Old 12-25-2016, 02:53 PM   #72
Tutejszy
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

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Originally Posted by samooth View Post
i think the real question here is whether stars allows scripts to auto play a 7sc deal every 12h
haha, would like to know that as well, free cheesburger once a month
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Old 12-25-2016, 03:42 PM   #73
OhEllNo
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

1,58$ everyday for 30 days = 47,40$ a month.

east europe will like it!
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Old 12-25-2016, 03:45 PM   #74
Brilliant27
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Lol stars
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Old 12-25-2016, 04:25 PM   #75
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Re: New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal"

Quote:
Originally Posted by SemiFreddo View Post
Hmm ok lets see:
0.028$ goes to Jackpot, of which 77% to current one = 0.02156$
The rest go's to the other prices = 0.07-0.028=0.042$
This should mean the EV of a normal spin should be at least 0.02156+0.042=0.06356$
And the EV for a 70sc spin should be $0.6356

Given they add 25k$ to the initial Jackpot you would assume the EV of 1 game is slightly higher than this number. But when we do the calculation for a 25k jackpot we see that the EV of a 70sc spin is $0.46



When i add in all the other prices i also get that the jackpot needs to be around 276k for it to be +EV. youriw21 also got this number.

So its strange that Stars says they don't profit from this.
When the numbers say they do.
So we've either been miscalculating or they are lying or allocated wrong prices to the hand values.

Now you could think this is because when the jackpot hits the winner gets half, the other half to those who played last 12hrs.
But even when we allocate 100% of the jackpot to the winner for simplicity sake, The EV of a 70sc spin is only $0.49

Hey that's a neat chart Did you make one for the 7 starscoin option as well?

Is there maybe also the EV of someone else hitting the jackpot in the next 12hrs? So maybe a 1/4 chance of a 48c payout the way the jackpot's been going so far, or something like that? Maybe the EV would be higher if the person keeps playing every 12hrs until it hits too ... not sure?


Maybe a place where Amaya might be making $ in a surprising way is with the interest from player deposits? Have just started trying to learn how to read annual reports, so am not sure if am reading their annual reports right ... but did they pocket $51 million from the interest of player deposits last year?

Happy Holidays everybody!
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