New no-skill Stars game: "The Deal" - Page 7 - Poker News

If the jackpot is hit half goes to the person who hit it.
The other half is distributed evenly among everyone who has played The Deal in the previous 12 hours.
So if the jackpot was 400k and 100k people had played in the previous 12 hours, 200k (half the jackpot) would be split between 100k people = $2 each

Quote

01-26-2017 , 07:32 AM

#152

Scooter_

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 340

Quote:

Originally Posted by onebiggrind

Ok - then there is almost no reason to play for 70 FPP.

Quote

01-26-2017 , 07:40 AM

#153

OFA

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,917

Quote:

Originally Posted by onebiggrind

How do you mean? The jackpot hasn't been hit. And when it is it'll be more than $.65 shared.

This was a few weeks ago

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01-26-2017 , 07:51 AM

#154

Tutejszy

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,633

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scooter_

Ok - then there is almost no reason to play for 70 FPP.

that's why it's a "skill game" in a way - because different ways of playing it have different ev (with playing for 7 cents once every 12 hours being max ev)

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01-26-2017 , 08:17 AM

#155

onebiggrind

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 195

I mean the highest EV strat is binary -
a) play infinite times every 12 hours (when you're +EV even without the shared portion of the jackpot)
b) play once every 12 hours (otherwise)

yeah this is just a different way of saying the same thing

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01-26-2017 , 01:59 PM

#156

obviousTROLL

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 387

Quote:

Originally Posted by onebiggrind

Is it +EV to bust my coins balance now? SHould I bet 7 ot 70 every time?

Quote

01-26-2017 , 05:47 PM

#157

Abbaddabba

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 5,807

Seems like the value is almost identical based on calculations earlier in this thread, and the value per pull is about 1.6x given current jackpot of about 430k.

So a 70 coin game valued at 70 cents yields about 110-115 cents. Should be quite rare for it to get this big so probably worth liquidating whatever you have.

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01-26-2017 , 06:25 PM

#158

Uhrenknecht

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 3,896

The downside of this game is obv that any game with a coin buy in gets more reggier

Quote

01-26-2017 , 07:12 PM

#159

Derpdeedoo

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 94

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abbaddabba

Are those calcs accurate though? Some people say they aren't.

Quote

01-26-2017 , 07:51 PM

#160

youriw21

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 684

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derpdeedoo

Are those calcs accurate though? Some people say they aren't.

They are. Though its not rare to hit 440K.

Quote

01-26-2017 , 07:58 PM

#161

Don't mind me

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 520

Quote:

Originally Posted by youriw21

They are. Though its not rare to hit 440K.

Thanks for your excel calc on the previous page youriw21. What do you think the probability that the jackpot hits 440k again in the next two months is?

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01-26-2017 , 08:24 PM

#162

youriw21

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 684

Quote:

Originally Posted by Don't mind me

Thanks for your excel calc on the previous page youriw21. What do you think the probability that the jackpot hits 440k again in the next two months is?

Without doing any math.. I'd say 1-2 times

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01-26-2017 , 09:13 PM

#163

brianhastings

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 66

Quote:

Originally Posted by obviousTROLL

Is it +EV to bust my coins balance now? SHould I bet 7 ot 70 every time?

yes, it's +EV to bust your account right now. Would need a massive bankroll for kelly to approve however

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01-26-2017 , 09:24 PM

#164

Abbaddabba

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 5,807

Here's another analysis of the EV:
https://chrislo.ca/the-expected-valu...at-pokerstars/

And wrt the rarity of the jackpot getting this big, is there any list of historic jackpots on stars? here's one for fulltilt which should produce the same size jackpots just stretched over longer periods of time.

http://online.casinocity.com/article...pot-won-124472

It shows 6 consecutive jackpots
233k, 90k, 204k, 109k, 221k and 389k.

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01-27-2017 , 12:04 AM

#165

OhEllNo

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 153

how much worth my 7fpp placement right now ?

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01-27-2017 , 12:31 AM

#166

Tutejszy

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,633

Quote:

Originally Posted by OhEllNo

how much worth my 7fpp placement right now ?

it was said million times already - there is now way to calculate ev, because majority of ev from one game depends on both your and ALL the other participants' playing patterns

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01-27-2017 , 03:27 AM

#167

brianhastings

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 66

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tutejszy

it was said million times already - there is now way to calculate ev, because majority of ev from one game depends on both your and ALL the other participants' playing patterns

I hope this hasn't been said a million times seeing as it is blatantly incorrect.

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01-27-2017 , 03:31 AM

#168

elendil200

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,031

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianhastings

yes, it's +EV to bust your account right now. Would need a massive bankroll for kelly to approve however

About the nature of this being +ev. This coment nails it.

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01-27-2017 , 04:17 AM

#169

Joe Knott

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 431

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianhastings

I hope this hasn't been said a million times seeing as it is blatantly incorrect.

Yeah. Basically the one 7-coins bet every 12 hours is always profitable, while EV of the consequent bets is very easy to calculate (and should not depend on players' patterns really).

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01-27-2017 , 09:29 AM

#170

obviousTROLL

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 387

Quote:

Originally Posted by obviousTROLL

Is it +EV to bust my coins balance now? Should I bet 7 ot 70 every time?

Well, that's how I lost my 20000 coins.

I really hope it was +EV attempt to win big.

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01-27-2017 , 12:47 PM

#171

pechkin

adept

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 729

the dissapointment when you dont win isnt worth the risk
also you still have to sit there and press buttons every 10 spins so time is wasted too, stick to 1 every 12

Quote

01-27-2017 , 01:43 PM

#172

Tutejszy

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,633

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianhastings

I hope this hasn't been said a million times seeing as it is blatantly incorrect.

ok, I overstated it with "majority of ev", but there is still difference in ev depending on wether in next 12 hours other players will stick to 1 game with max ev or punt off more - and you can't predict future while calculating ev

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01-27-2017 , 02:47 PM

#173

CoreySteel

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,894

You didn't really overstate, it's was just wrong. Betting pattern doesn't matter for your EV* in "7sc/12hr strategy". What matters is number of players that put a bet in.

* I mean, sure, it does. Prizepool's gonna be 421k instead of 420k, but it won't change your EV really.

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01-27-2017 , 04:00 PM

#174

pechkin

adept

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 729

also is my math correct that the chance to hit royal flush is 5/13*4/51*3/50*2/49*1/48?
if so, then the chance in the chart is like 100 times higher than it is, 0.0000015390771693 is what i get? my math may be wrong tho, but it looks more realistic, i mean it's unlikely that you can hit royal flush once in 10000 spins, there would be royal flushes flushing everywhere