Quote:
Originally Posted by Brilliant27
TE: in your estimation, what are the chances that the NJ poker sites get shut down. Like if you had to give a % chance as of today, what would be your guess?
It's hard to say. I think we all are doing a very good job targeting the lame duck attempts. Last week, the likelihood of that attempt succeeding was probably somewhere aroud PX's prediction of 20%. That sounds low, implying that Adelson failed to get set up for the lame duck. However, as it's hard to move much of anything through Congress these days, that's pretty much where one would expect. Adelson was able to get his chess pieces into position for a lame duck push.
We all did a great job keeping the light of day on this attempt through traditional and social media, as well as through grassroots activism. Lawmakers heard from us -- many of whom were not aware of the lame duck push until then. This disinfecting light of the truth pulled RAWA from the lame duck shadows, from where Adelson had hoped to be able to push it through.
For Adelson's successes at getting set up on Capitol Hill, we clearly won the media battle. His placed op-eds and columns were greeted largely with ridicule, helped along by the comment sections (which were owned by the poker community). The anti-RAWA op-eds and columns, OTOH, were far more persuasive IMO. We also won the social media battle. Adelson would have been better not even trying, it was so lopsided.
With the news that the House Judiciary Committee won't hold a lame duck hearing on this, our odds have clearly improved, but we are not out of the woods for a lame duck ban. This could still be tacked onto must-pass legislation. However, as passing this in that manner, with no hearings or freestanding votes would be such a clear political payback, the likelihood is lower.
Next year, Adelson will have plenty of $upporter$ (see what I did there
), but it will be a tougher road. Full debates, states pushing back harder once this becomes more "real" to them, lottery opposition, politicians who are reluctant to cross Adelson now expressing opposition as this becomes more "real" to them, etc. And, time is not on Adelson's side. More states will move to authorize this, and it really takes one or two big states to make this moot. He may be able to stop expansion at that point, but a federal shutdown may not be in the cards at that point.
So, we're in a real fight. It's very winnable, but everyone needs to be on board. I'm surprised that there's not a huge sense of urgency ITT, especially as some are wondering why Congress doesn't seem to understand how many poker players want the right to play. The answer to that is simple. We have to tell them that we want our right to play.