Quote:
Originally Posted by Wildspoke
Sheldon Adelson Just won.
This is the death blow to online poker in the US. Everything is lined up against it. Bye-Bye NV, NJ and MD - NO CA, PA or NY.
1. It's a lame duck Congress - Those outgoing will roll over and vote for it.
2. Those reelected will vote for it with zero repercussions.
3. The bills' sponsors are from Utah and Hawaii in the House. SC and CA in the Senate. UT and HI are two states that are against all forms of gambling.
4. Congress is now controlled by the Republicans.
5. There will provisions carved out for State lotteries and probably Horse Racing.
6. NBA commissioner Adam Silver just came out in favor of legalized gambling.
7. It will be interesting if the Fantasy Sports is carved out as well. I hope not because that's the only way the bill will be defeated. Yahoo, ESPN and other big money then will get behind its defeat. But Adelson knows that so GG online poker.
The video is pretty pathetic
@1:50 mark. They want any "new" legislation to be debated and discussed in Congress. What a load of Bull****. Of course Congressmen Jason Chavetz fails to mention that Bill Frist tacked UIGEA on the Port Act. So ****ing infuriating.
6:13 Lindsey Graham of course says you can enter a pool to guess how old another member of congress in and it won’t violate the wire act.
Graham also freely admits that Sheldon Adelson is behind him.
This is an extremely glass-half-empty and fact-deficient view. The outlook is not nearly so grim. Just yesterday I got this voicemail from my Congressman's office in response to my email opposing RAWA:
Quote:
Hey Martin, this is LJ Cavoney with Congressman Jolly's office. Just following up on a piece of mail received from you regarding your opposition to HR 3 01, the Restoration of America's Wire Act legislation. I wanted to let you know that we are not a cosponsor for that legislation. You'll be happy to know that I don't think that legislation is gonna go anywhere. It currently still sits within the House Judiciary Committee and it only has 18 co-sponsors. For an answer to any questions you have, feel free to give me a call back at (202) 225-5961. Thanks and have a great day.
1. The whole concept of a lame duck session is that the outgoing Congresscritters don't have to vote party line or political compromise - they can vote their conscience or their constituents' will. They are much less likely to roll over on any vote.
2. The reelected are mostly those that are secure in their districts. They didn't need to worry about repercussions before either. It's the newly elected and those who had tight races in the GOP who are most beholden to Adelson, for the campaign funding received, that are the most worrisome.
3. It doesn't matter where the sponsors of the bills are from. They are bought by Adelson. More important is how many co-sponsors there are, how many committee members back the bills, and the stance of the Congressional and committee leaders on the issue.
4. Congress won't be controlled by the Republicans until January.
5. & 7. Anyone who has actually read the bill knows that there are already carveouts for Horse Racing & Fantasy Sports. A carveout for lotteries may or may not be necessary to move the bill. The bill doesn't outlaw state lotteries or multi-state lotteries - just sales of lottery tickets over the Internet.
6. Silver came out in favor of legalizing sports gambling in all states. I don't think this has any relation to or impact on RAWA.
Right now, as noted in the quoted voicemail above, RAWA hasn't advanced in any Congressional committee. Rumor has it that there will be a hearing in the House Judiciary Committee during the lame duck session. Actually, the bill sits in a subcommittee of the House Judiciary: Crime, Terrorism, Homeland Security, and Investigations. So that is where the hearing would take place. This is a very small step in passage of a bill.
A first hearing on a bill usually does not include a vote - which is necessary to move it out of that subcommittee. Even if this hearing results in a "yeah" vote, that just moves it out of the subcommittee back to the House Judiciary, where it would need at least one hearing and a committee vote. Only then could it move to the House floor for debate and vote. On the Senate side, the bill only has one sponsor and three co-sponsors. It currently sits in the Senate Judiciary committee. It would need to go through the same committee hearing and vote process, and then to the Senate floor for debate and vote.
Keep in mind that this bill is overall an extremely low priority for Congress. Traditionally, lame duck sessions are a time when pork and pet bills are passed by the Majority party, IF control is passing from the standing Majority party to the standing Minority party. In this case, neither party is currently Majority in both Congressional houses, and control of the White House is remaining the same. So, there isn't a lot of expectation that much will get done during the lame duck session. Also, keep in mind that there are only 11 business days left for Congress during the lame duck session - not nearly enough time for a new bill like RAWA to advance through all the necessary steps to passage.
The danger during the lame duck session is attachment of a pet bill like RAWA to a must-pass bill (like budget or appropriations). In the case of RAWA, the only place this might take place during the lame duck session is the Senate, under Reid. The upcoming hearing in the House Judiciary subcommittee could be a prelude to such an attachment, as a strong pro voice and positive vote in the House Judiciary could be used to justify moving it in the Senate.
Attachment of the bill in the Senate will require closed-door dealing between the GOP and the Dems, and the complicity of Reid. This is where it gets tricky. Reid wants to be Minority leader next session. In order to get anything Democratic-party based through next session, Reid has to be in a position to make deals with the Republican leadership. What occurs this lame duck session will set the tone for bi-partisan cooperation next session. If the GOP leadership wants RAWA to be attached this lame duck, they could pressure Reid to move it on this basis. And since this is Adelson's pet bill, it is not unlikely that passage of RAWA is on the mind of the Republican leadership.
Questions remain as to whether or not RAWA will be pushed for attachment during the lame duck session, and whether or not Reid will require compromise on the bill (e.g., a poker carveout). For the former, the biggest stumbling block is the supposed platform of many Republicans that bills should be openly debated in Congress before passage, rather than passed through backroom deals. For the latter, Reid might require carveouts in the bill, or he might use the opportunity for something else like some pork for Nevada or some clout for Obama. (Note that the abysmal fiscal results so far of online poker in NV, NJ & DE has made it a non-pork issue for NV, even though it is still important to Caesars.)
Bottom line, I think RAWA is under 20% to be advanced through Congress during the lame duck session. I think it has a much greater chance to be advanced during the next Congressional session, under GOP control, as a "thank you" to Adelson. Still, it is important for our lawmakers to continue to hear our opposition to it, now more than ever. After all, it is mostly the money of political contributors like Adelson that determines what is taken up by Congress to become law in the U.S.
Last edited by PokerXanadu; 11-15-2014 at 07:17 AM.