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Reload this Page ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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Old 08-18-2010, 09:04 AM   #751
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
Quote:
Originally Posted by bulls_horn View Post
wannabe dorks arguing about statistics.
is there really people in this world aspiring to be a dork?
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Old 08-18-2010, 09:32 AM   #752
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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Originally Posted by Seven7s View Post
If jungleman ended up 500k in 50k hands at 200-400 that's 12.5 buyins only or 1250 big blinds. That would only be a 0.625BB winrate. Assuming a standard deviation of 75, we could be 57.68% confident Jungle had an edge.

Let's say jungle wins 1,000,000 or 1.25BB/100 then we could be 64.3% confident he's a winner.
1250 bb in 50,000 hands is a winrate of 1.25BB/100 (2.5bb/100). What's the equation for calculating the confidence by the way?
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Old 08-18-2010, 09:32 AM   #753
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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Originally Posted by Seven7s View Post
If jungleman ended up 500k in 50k hands at 200-400 that's 12.5 buyins only or 1250 big blinds. That would only be a 0.625BB winrate. Assuming a standard deviation of 75, we could be 57.68% confident Jungle had an edge.

Let's say jungle wins 1,000,000 or 1.25BB/100 then we could be 64.3% confident he's a winner.
Your numbers are wrong, 1.25ptbb/100 (2.5bb/100) means 500k over 50k hands.
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Old 08-18-2010, 10:05 AM   #754
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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Originally Posted by ben wb View Post
1250 bb in 50,000 hands is a winrate of 1.25BB/100 (2.5bb/100). What's the equation for calculating the confidence by the way?
http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/
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Old 08-18-2010, 10:32 AM   #755
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
When starts the callenge?
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Old 08-18-2010, 10:46 AM   #756
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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Originally Posted by ceavou22 View Post
Yeah, I use that a lot but it's not exactly what I want. This one, http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...te_confidence/, is also similar to what I want but I can't find how to calculate the percentage chance long term winrate is positive given a known standard deviation, winrate and number of hands. You can pretty much work it out using those though.
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Old 08-18-2010, 10:58 AM   #757
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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When starts the callenge?
Seriously. Didn't Durrrr say they would start 'in a few days' several days ago? Stop teasing us mang.
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Old 08-18-2010, 11:02 AM   #758
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
willing to bet up to $250 on durr at 1:1, pm me.
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Old 08-18-2010, 12:03 PM   #759
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
Still looking to book $200 - $300 on Jungleman (1:1) via FTP xfer.
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Old 08-18-2010, 12:14 PM   #760
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
when does this challenge start?
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Old 08-18-2010, 12:18 PM   #761
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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Originally Posted by chinz View Post
Your numbers are wrong, 1.25ptbb/100 (2.5bb/100) means 500k over 50k hands.
Oh yeah oops. 1.25ptbb/100 would be +500k and 64.3% confidence of having an edge.
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Old 08-18-2010, 12:44 PM   #762
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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when does this challenge start?
Didn't you read the press release? It has the official time table. They will be playing the first 150 minutes session at 9:25 PM
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Old 08-18-2010, 01:03 PM   #763
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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Oh yeah oops. 1.25ptbb/100 would be +500k and 64.3% confidence of having an edge.
How to calculate the confidence?
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Old 08-18-2010, 01:10 PM   #764
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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this made me lol so hard.
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Old 08-18-2010, 02:36 PM   #765
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Re: ***It's Official: Jungleman IS playing the Durrrr Challenge***
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Originally Posted by Sappie22 View Post
How to calculate the confidence?
http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/winlose.htm

Inputting the winrate, standard Deviation and number of hands gives you a confidence %.
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