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Old 11-22-2012, 09:38 AM   #1
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Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

From the article in highstakesdb: http://www.highstakesdb.com/3437-int...awrilenko.aspx

" the language of all the top players is the language of game theory, distributions, bluffing ratios, etc".

What??

In all the interviews with Ivey, Antonius, Dwan, Isildur, Jungleman I have never heard them talk about using game theory and math, quite the opposite in fact. Where does he get this idea from?
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Old 11-22-2012, 09:41 AM   #2
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

Guys like Sauce, Kanu and Ike all have strategies that are more game theory optimal.

Check out the latest pokercast for an interview with Sauce where he discusses this.

Even the players you mentions still think in similar ways.

I've seen past posts on here were Dwan discusses game theory optimal play.
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Old 11-22-2012, 09:53 AM   #3
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

Hahaha in today's games that's the language of anybody who is a long term winner at anything above $100NL! As the games have gotten tougher and edges have gotten smaller players have gotten more tight lipped in terms of strategy. Go search the archives (http://www.twoplustwo.com/archives.php) for some of durrrr's posts back in the 'golden age' of poker if this surprises you.
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Old 11-22-2012, 10:06 AM   #4
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

Quote:
It's funny, because I'm not much of a partier at all, I hate strip clubs. Bill made me go with him once, and when I finished hiding in the bathroom, I came out to find him solving a theorem on the back of a cocktail napkin.
shaboy
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Old 11-22-2012, 10:08 AM   #5
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

Quote:
Originally Posted by FUmoney View Post
From the article in highstakesdb: http://www.highstakesdb.com/3437-int...awrilenko.aspx

" the language of all the top players is the language of game theory, distributions, bluffing ratios, etc".

What??

In all the interviews with Ivey, Antonius, Dwan, Isildur, Jungleman I have never heard them talk about using game theory and math, quite the opposite in fact. Where does he get this idea from?
Maybe they aren't using it directly but they are using things that work and likely a ton of math, game theory, etc. is involved. Maybe they don't know why they do it, but likely do it because it's an effective winning strategy.
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Old 11-22-2012, 10:11 AM   #6
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

I remember durrrr once boasting on High Stakes Poker that he could not play poker for 10 years and still be able to beat the games, so either he's really arrogant and was incorrect or he has a great handle on strategy

Poker is cool because people with vastly different strategies can succeed. the winningest cash game player (ivey) has no idea what any of those things are, but he knows enough from gameflow and experience that he could beat any of the top online players (was up 20m against game specialists like galfond at plo and hoss at limit)

ultimately the best players aren't going to be people who are smart and discover poker and make good analytic judgments even if they are broadly going to be more successful than gamblers, its going to be people who need the money from poker more than anything, who've grown up in desperate situations, so poker is their life (ivey). he's in his own class for that reason
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Old 11-22-2012, 10:17 AM   #7
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

inb4 poker evens out
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Old 11-22-2012, 10:17 AM   #8
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

How is this a thread?
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Old 11-22-2012, 10:23 AM   #9
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

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Originally Posted by FUmoney View Post
From the article in highstakesdb: http://www.highstakesdb.com/3437-int...awrilenko.aspx

" the language of all the top players is the language of game theory, distributions, bluffing ratios, etc".

What??

In all the interviews with Ivey, Antonius, Dwan, Isildur, Jungleman I have never heard them talk about using game theory and math, quite the opposite in fact. Where does he get this idea from?
It wouldn't surprise me at all if a few of those names don't think about it like "I need to have a bluff in my range here 20% of the time to be GTO" but rather while they're playing they deduce "based on this guy's image of me/this guy's currently tilting a bit/I flat out feel like gambling a bit" they ultimately end up running bluffs and altering their range distributions just by feel accidentally the right amount to be close to GTO. Maybe they realize what they're doing, or maybe their feel is such that they're just getting it right without realizing it...

I know one LHE player in particular who's super successful and definitely is far from a math wizard (you could say "hey what's 8 times 6" and he wouldn't spit 48 back at you in a nanosecond like most poker players could) and isn't thinking of things in terms of GTO and math. I think he's just accidentally getting it right just from his own instincts and has been for years.
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Old 11-22-2012, 10:31 AM   #10
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

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It wouldn't surprise me at all if a few of those names don't think about it like "I need to have a bluff in my range here 20% of the time to be GTO" but rather while they're playing they deduce "based on this guy's image of me/this guy's currently tilting a bit/I flat out feel like gambling a bit" they ultimately end up running bluffs and altering their range distributions just by feel accidentally the right amount to be close to GTO. Maybe they realize what they're doing, or maybe their feel is such that they're just getting it right without realizing it...
Can't remember what book I read (some game theory nonsense) but it cited an example study of Italian penalty shootouts whereby both the striker and goalkeeper were making near enough GTO decisions on which way to kick/dive based on the players strength for one side or the other. I am pretty sure no professional footballers in Serie A are especially versed in game theory and I doubt anyone has even attempted to teach them. I guess it's just experience.

Edit: book was this: http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0...ms_ohs_product
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Old 11-22-2012, 10:35 AM   #11
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

durrrr and jungleman have made strategy posts using those concepts and similar ones.
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Old 11-22-2012, 11:10 AM   #12
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

I'm pretty sure Durrr argued something along the lines of "GTO does not exist in NLHE." He argued the point extensively with sauce in a HSNL thread. Not sure where that discussion ended, or if it ever did.

Anyways, I know lots of very good mid-high stakes regs who are terrible at math, but they seem to have an intuitive sense of near-optimal frequencies. Also, there are certain things that "feel" players can do SO well that it makes up for money they may lose playing less than optimal in other spots. I would expect that the same is true of the higher/highest stakes player pools as well.
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Old 11-22-2012, 11:38 AM   #13
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

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Originally Posted by Mossberg View Post
I'm pretty sure Durrr argued something along the lines of "GTO does not exist in NLHE." He argued the point extensively with sauce in a HSNL thread. Not sure where that discussion ended, or if it ever did.

Anyways, I know lots of very good mid-high stakes regs who are terrible at math, but they seem to have an intuitive sense of near-optimal frequencies. Also, there are certain things that "feel" players can do SO well that it makes up for money they may lose playing less than optimal in other spots. I would expect that the same is true of the higher/highest stakes player pools as well.
I have heard him mention in interviews and posts that NLHE (Heads Up at least) was pretty much solved in from a Game Theory Optimal perspective.
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Old 11-22-2012, 11:39 AM   #14
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

even if some of the top guys don't specifically use the terminology they still know what they are doing from an abstract perspective, whether they know it or not
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Old 11-22-2012, 12:09 PM   #15
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Re: Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

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Originally Posted by Rupert View Post
Can't remember what book I read (some game theory nonsense) but it cited an example study of Italian penalty shootouts whereby both the striker and goalkeeper were making near enough GTO decisions on which way to kick/dive based on the players strength for one side or the other. I am pretty sure no professional footballers in Serie A are especially versed in game theory and I doubt anyone has even attempted to teach them. I guess it's just experience.

Edit: book was this: http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0...ms_ohs_product
This is also discussed in some depth in Soccernomics.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Soccernomics...3604005&sr=8-1

It basically states that despite some teams doing lots of analysis into which way their opponents penalty taker(s) / keeper are more likely to go and then passing this information to their own players to form a counter strategy, that actually the top players instinctively undertake a near "optimal" mixed strategy for this analysis to be of little use.

Last edited by oracle3001; 11-22-2012 at 12:16 PM.
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