Quote:
Originally Posted by rimsky11
348,000,000,000 to 1 odds. mmmmmmmmmmmmmm
That is not accurate though.
Every week, for years, there are thousands of people who play 3+ big field tournaments.
For me to say 'this weekend I will enter just 3 tournaments and win them all' will be 348,000,000,000 (or whatever) but we are looking at this after the fact.
In a similar way, Mark Newhouse final tabling the WSOP ME two years running is approx 6,000/9 x 6,000/9 = 444,000-1. But that is not a particularly balanced way to look at it. Last year there were 9 players who made the final table. Assume all 9 entered this year, the chances of one of them final tabling again is approx 6000/9=666-1. Given that a previous run provided plenty of experience, and the player is probably nearer the top of the scale ability-wise, then even that 666-1 shot is over stating it. This is quite different to a 440,000-1 shot.
And in another example, I recall reading that it is much more likely for there to be a multiple bracelet winner in a single year than for there not to be. Which means there is often someone defeating decent sized fields each summer. In fact, 1999 is the last time that there was not a multiple winner in the same year, including WSOPe and Asia Pacific. Many of these bracelets are from mixed games with smallish fields, but the fact it happens so often shows that in large player pools, you get all kinds of quirks arising.
In short, fair play to him for winning them. It is a heck of an achievement, but in the great scheme of things it is not utterly ridiculous.