Since 1998 (obviously a big sample) my strike rate with this system has been just under 16% winners i.e. the actual TRUE odds of my selections are a lot less than 14/1. I might not be backing favorites as per the odds presented by the bookmakers and the betting public, but most of them actually should of been favs. That is why I only average 6 bets per week from over 100 races studied pw as there are not too many 14/1 shots that should actually be closer to 7/1. Also, about 12% of the time I will back two horses in the one race i.e. I am targeting specific races where the bookies favs are just totally wrong and thus I want to take advantage of the skewed market. I am mostly involved in big field races of 14+ runners where the fav is rarely less than 5/1. So yeah, although they are longish priced favs due to race type, the truth is I actually am backing the true fav or most likely winner a high % of the time.

All this means my ratio of 2nds to 1sts should indeed be closer to 50% than 87% 2nds as has been proven by 13 years of selections prior to the run bad that commenced in 2011. My estimate is that it should be closer to 60 to 65% 2nds.

Also: FTR I never actually did say it should be exactly 50%. I said it should be closer to 50%.

Why would anybody, let alone tom dwan, give such detailed information about their financial status to some stranger who approached him? You are FOS.

I guess it's time to pull some NSA strings and find out the real deal

When someone who had 10 millions (or even more) to his name having 10k (not saying he has 10k but if it was the case) to grind = Being BROKE.

You must be insane. He has spent the past x years traveling the world, enjoying a lot of the best things life has to offer. He can always go back to school if he ever needed or wanted to. But he would never have been able to replace all these incredible experiences he's had. The money is just the means to an end. What better use of it in your 20s could there be than what he has done? Whether he is broke or not, I'll bet he doesn't have a single regret about the path he chose. Nor should he.

I also do not think peter is busto, but how can you "assure" me that he is not?

Nobody. Gives. A. ****.

Except for you with your 18k+ and almost 100 months of posting on here.

Hmmmm I would suggest you care quite a bit about silly stuff online that has nothing to do with you.

Wow screw blitz I want to see your thread. Please think about making one

Are you actually a professional horse racing bettor? If it was as easy as betting on the horse that's ahead halfway through the race, we'd all be rich. I would strongly advise you to give up before you lose all your money.

What on earth are you talking about? When did I say I do this? I specifically said I don't bet in running when another poster like you blindly jumped in with some sort of mumbo jumbo that I probably do do this and base it on who is in front at half way.

Honestly, read a bit before commenting. Don't presume and comment without having read first.

MY original post "closer to 50%" was in response to two comments from NVG tards who obviously spend their days waiting to try and show the internet how clever they are even when they have no idea what they are talking about. I have 16 years of data and was happy to give them a very brief description. The correct figure is closer to 50% than 87% and that was a sufficient response for people who skim through threads all day waiting to show the World how dumb they are.

he isn't

I suspect that everyone that has posted in this thread is "broker" than Dwan.

Agreed. I know I'm way broker than Dwan will ever be. I'm even broker than that dude who scams people in airports who thinks his life is over despite being able to consistently drop thousands into casino pits over and over.

And why the hell is every third post in a Dwan thread about some guy trying to prove that he's good at watching horsies.

1) You have to define broke as broke can mean a lot of different things to different people. Is he highstakes broke that he needs to be backed for the bigger games? Cause he certainly isn't broke in the traditional sense.

2) Its very difficult to know the net worth of people like Dawn cause no one knows what percentage of himself he has had in certain games, how much money he spends, made bad or good investments ect...

3) Even if you knew the exact amount of money he made each year which is impossible in poker, you still wouldn't know his net worth.. Look at how many celebrities like MC Hammer or Mike Tyson who earned 100's of millions of dollars and blew almost all of it...

Unless Dwan or someone extremely close to Dwan comes out and says something it is pretty pointless to speculate.. now lets get back to hearing about variance in horse racing and not derail this thread any further

IDK if he ever posted about it on twitter, but a couple months ago he was on vacation in Caribbean and there were some photos. I think they had their own private boat.

ZING!

See look how much of a db he is he turned his chair around backwards

Yes because broke people have $5k to put into a HU machine

And yes yes because anyone who couldn't play in the One Drop is obviously broke broker than broke.

durrr has said in the past that he doesn't sell much % of mtts...most of the players in this had < 50% of themselves.

No we really don't give a ***** about your horse betting