this is pretty interesting... optimal strategy to play vs durrr though would be to play a super high variance game if you are down and to play very, very tight if you are up on him. could be some very weird looking hands towards the end of this match.
I personally think this has to be a bad bet but probably not as bad as it looks.... that being said if i had the money and thought i was better or a pretty fair fight vs tom, I'd do this.
The legit options are the Dang's, CTS, Raptor and maybe Antonius....Ivey would never ever agree to do 50k hands and durrrr fears jman...but i do think it is +EV for a couple people out there...the real issue for anyone besides antonius is backers because none of the others would willingly play for what could be between 500,001-2.5 mil that could be lost...not sure at what point if someone was down they'd buy out, but i doubt they'd lose more than that...
50k hands at 600 hands/hour (reasonable estimate 4 tabling i think) = ~83 hours
3 hours/day = ~28 days
using PA as an example, in December 08 (comparable timeframe to the prospective bet), he played 11651 hands and ~298 hours, so an average of ~39 hands/hour. if PA thought he were even very slightly +EV in this it would obviously be a better use of his time than the playing he is doing now. he'd be getting in many more hands, and a possible 1.5 mil + money won plus the challenge, notoriety etc. would def be worth his time.
the excuse of this challenge not being worth it is clearly not a valid one on that point alone. thinking they don't have an edge or if they do an extremely tiny one, or not wanting to deal with the stress or lower quality of life that a challenge such as this might bring (i'd imagine a 50k hand HU match with durrrr would be pretty taxing for anyone), is a decent excuse, but no one should be saying oh dumb challenge tons of people are +EV in this but its not worth their precious time.
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