DURRRRS MILLION DOLLAR CHALLENGE (Ivey and PA accept) - Page 55 - Poker News

KStV · 01-07-2009, 11:00 AM

Card Player Magazine seems to have some sort of promotional interest here:

FROM THE ARTICLE:
"Dwan told Card Player about his challenge last month, and it is described in full detail in the magazine’s upcoming cover story about him, set to hit casinos this week. . . . To learn more about Tom Dwan and his historic challenge, pick up the next issue of Card Player magazine."

FROM DWAN'S POST HERE:
"ya i mean this wasnt supposed to be posted yet but w/e."

sneaks619 · 01-07-2009, 11:08 AM

This is just the story of "all the money goes to ivey" with the middle chapters removed

Mr_Mxyztplk · 01-07-2009, 11:41 AM

This thread is the prop bet. Durrr bet he could start a thread that would get over 1000 post in a week. Ta Daaa

evanthething · 01-07-2009, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David123

another ftp railer saying the guys playing 500 1000 suck. let me kill myself from the gecho.

lmao

relderretep · 01-07-2009, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by downil

If the game was a regular tournament Dwan had to win 3 out of 4 matches with that prizepool (1.5 million to 0.5 million), in order to break even.
But this isn't. It's a mix between a tourney and a cashgame.

Dwans required edge over his opponent doesn't only depend on the amout of money he will pay/recieve after the game, but also on the amount of money he expects to win, the times he win, on the way to the 50.000th hand.

Look at the plot I have linked to as an example.

Dwan plays against Benyamine and after 50,000 hands he is up 2 millions. His total winnings will then be 2.5 millions.
If Dwan is 2 millions behind after 50,000 hands his total losses will be 3.5 millions.
3.5/2.5=1.4.
So, in this example he only has to be 1,4:1 favourite. Not 3:1.

I was thinking exactly this while reading through the last 5-10 pages. Nice post.

Kirbynator · 01-07-2009, 12:22 PM

obv the money edge is different but it doesnt change the fact that hes laying a bet 3to1 that he will finish up instead of down

chilin_dude · 01-07-2009, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by downil

If the game was a regular tournament Dwan had to win 3 out of 4 matches with that prizepool (1.5 million to 0.5 million), in order to break even.
But this isn't. It's a mix between a tourney and a cashgame.

Dwans required edge over his opponent doesn't only depend on the amout of money he will pay/recieve after the game, but also on the amount of money he expects to win, the times he win, on the way to the 50.000th hand.

Look at the plot I have linked to as an example.

Dwan plays against Benyamine and after 50,000 hands he is up 2 millions. His total winnings will then be 2.5 millions.
If Dwan is 2 millions behind after 50,000 hands his total losses will be 3.5 millions.
3.5/2.5=1.4.
So, in this example he only has to be 1,4:1 favourite. Not 3:1.

this

punter11235 · 01-07-2009, 12:25 PM

Quote:

obv the money edge is different but it doesnt change the fact that hes laying a bet 3to1 that he will beat them

Yeah. It also doesn't change the fact that if you are worse player than durrrr you better stay away from this bet. I just hope some gamblers will think "wow free million" instead asking someone to do the math. One is still "considering" so we will see how it goes...

rivers2tomlinson · 01-07-2009, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ORAG

Take 25,000x600 and check for yourself.

Or he could check the right way?

Kirbynator · 01-07-2009, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by punter11235

Yeah. It also doesn't change the fact that if you are worse player than durrrr you better stay away from this bet. I just hope some gamblers will think "wow free million" instead asking someone to do the math. One is still "considering" so we will see how it goes...

gotta hope you're pretty close to even, yep.

downil · 01-07-2009, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rivers2tomlinson

Or he could check the right way?

lmfao

Sherlockyyyy · 01-07-2009, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rivers2tomlinson

Or he could check the right way?

And the opposing player wouldn't notice that he was check/folding everything?

relderretep · 01-07-2009, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kirbynator

gotta hope you're pretty close to even, yep.

over 50k hands, it has to be extremely close to even. If durrrr is like +0.3-0.5ptbb, I think he is still very likely to be up overall.

**BananaBalla** · 01-07-2009, 12:34 PM

Obviously durrrr is a smart guy, and discussed this challenge with jman, dangs, raptor, etc., considering the likely opponents to accept, his edge over them, etc.

durrrr has said it time and time again, he is all about making as much money as possible. I doubt he would make this challenge unless he and his friends definitely thought it was +ev.

Also, dunno if anyone suggested this, but good chance Jman has a piece of durrrr in this? hard to believe durrrr would only exclude jman, and not say the dangs.

thrasher789 · 01-07-2009, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thecheese

You'll have a 3-6m roll soon? and you have only played UP TO 250/500 LHE???? You must think we are all stupid, I have played 25-50 PLO a bunch.... so that must mean I will have the roll to take on DUrrr and DB soon....wait nope my reg game is 3/6 or 5/10 and I will never have the roll to play with them and I wont lie about it either......

uhhhh... Considering philenwall is one of the biggest winners at his highstakes games you should probably check your facts before implying he's just a gusto railbird