I ran my ranges into a solver (with some extra suited junk for the 3bettor creating a 10%+ 3betting range, which is pretty wide against an early open).
On the flop, the solver would check 86 of clubs on the flop, but bet 86 of diamonds 38%, 86 of spades 50%. It would fold JcJs 49% and call 51% (fold all pocket jacks without a spade).
On the turn it would fold its remaining JcJs 95%. On the river it would not only fold jacks, but also most AQ-AJs.
The solver, as the 3-bettor likes to turn a pair of sevens into bluffs (76s, 87s, 97s). It bets them about 80-90% on the flop, and they're its only bluffs on the river.
Note: On that flop, the 3-bet caller's range is a lot weaker than the button's, so it does not adhere to MDF.
Now giving Polk a 3bet range of 15% with a 5-1 bluff to value ratio, the Solver still folds jacks by the river.
Torelli would have to have a "tell" or think Polk is really unbalanced on all streets to call w/ jacks on the river.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WCGRider
Flopping top set and barreling hard for value is typically not the optimal line.
With aces, the Solver check-calls the flop 77%, check-calls the turn 93%, and then check-calls the river 100%.