This guy can even make a good story of mold on cheese.

+1!!!!!


You took off the most exciting news related cycle in recent memory

Anymore q&a's planned on the youtube channel?

Really Loving the YouTube hand reviews Doug was just thinking maybe You might be interested in adding some Online hands to the Mix, A hand that comes to Mind would Love to hear Your thoughts on this 1, Great job on Upswing See You Soon Take Care . . .



Vs



PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $50/$100 ($20 ante) - 3 players
Rail Hand History Converter

Doug, the flatter payouts will not reduce your ROI by as much as you fear. (and may increase it after you factor in taxes, but I have not done the math yet to confirm or refute that).

In your podcast example you said paying 100% of the field will lock in the loss rate of the rake assuming everyone gets the same min cash. That is true. But the other extreme would be winner take all not top 1%. In winner take all, the tax rate over $416k is 39.6% and that will take a heavy toll since you cannot carry forward prior losing year losses to offset a big win. And few would show up for a winner take all event or even a top 3% pay event.

The tables below show how flatter payouts can lower a pro's ROI. It looks at the 2010 WSOP main event with 7319 players. If you were an average player your ROI would simply be the -6% rake. This is based on a model that you get your money all in on a 50-50 coin flip. If you were twice as likely to win vs. an average player, then your ROI would be 41% and you would get your money in as a 52.77% favorite on average. If you were 3x as likely to win vs. an avg. player your ROI would be 80% and you would get your money in as a 54.47% fav. on avg. And your ROI would be 117% if you were 4x more likely to win vs. an avg. player and you got your money in as a 55.70% favorite on average.

The actual payout to 1st was $8.9 mil. The A,B,C,D columns show flatter alternatives. If you were 3x more likely to win, and 1st was cut down to $6.2 mil. your ROI would only fall to 71% from 80%. But your variance goes down too as shown in the 2nd table. If you had no top 9 finishes, your ROI would be -1% under the actual pay of $8.9 mil, but you would still have a +7% ROI under the flatter B payout of $6.2 mil.

The final table shows how rare it is to make the top 36. For example, as a 3x to win player with an 80% ROI, you would only make the final table once every 356 years vs once every 2440 years for an average player assuming a 7319 player field.

There needs to be a balance between the desires of the pros and amateurs. I feel 10% payout is too snug and 20% is too loose. Therefore I think 15% for now is a good compromise with a 1.5x min cash. (12.5% would be ok too with say a 1.75x min cash) However, I still feel the amount paid to 1st place in 95%+ of tournaments is still too high. From the 2010 WSOP Main event below, I think choice B is the best with $6.2 mil going to 1st vs the actual pay of $8.9 mil. (B would also add 2% to the pool or over $1 mil in tax savings) With the new WSOP 15% payouts in 2016, that $8.9 mil to 1st would be around $8.2 mil now. So still lots of room to trim from the top. Payouts have been way too top heavy for years and so it is a challenge to get them to levels they should be without creating player expectation "sticker shock". But hopefully they will begin to fall to get in line to where they should be.

RedOak

Temporary Insanity/Tilt

Nah, I remember Jungle blueballing people saying he knows why otb made the call down.
Some weird balance/exploitability+ blockers thing I would imagine.
I also remember Doug saying Jungle called his triple barrel shove with Q high after missing a flush draw so it's not the strangest thing I guess.

I suck at poker. I've had a few drinks but river call is wtf?

Derail is douche material but would love to see anyone spin an explanation.

I can try at the risk of getting flamed and lol'd at.
It's difficult for Kanu to rep anything other than overpairs on this dry ass runout.
otb conveniently has a hand that blocks QQ and JJ.
On the river Kanu either has an overpair or a bluff that can't beat QJ. Ok if he was bluffing with an ace or a king it would probably be with another overcard and otb is again blocking AQ/AJ/KQ/KJ.
I suppose in a vacuum AK would be the best bluff catcher but otb can't really have that since he limped pre.
So if we assume otb needs to have some bluff catchers in his range in this spot QJ is actually about the best one he can have.



And yes, apologies for the derail.

With regards to what Jungle said bout balancing etc..If early in a sesh could it not just be OtB telling his opponent il call you down 3 streets with Q high every time if I think you're weak? It does seem spewy but it's a pretty dry board so Kanu could have easily felt comfy jamming with pretty much anything as the hand played out, no? And surely sometimes that is a pure bluff.
Il state. Me fish so just asking questions..

I'll continue the derail douchery. If Kanu always has 9x or better there, QJ isn't the worst hand to call with as it blocks QQ/JJ. He doesn't have to worry that much about no-pair Ax, Kx hands as those hands have to much showdown value to turn into bluffs, and likely don't get to the river this way in the first place. Kanu will likely have low card hands in his range that picked up a straight or flush draw OTT. I think QJ is probably a much better call here than a hand like A7.

edit: Could be 100% wrong in my analysis, but whateva

I would like to start off by saying I am a complete novice when it comes to poker, but this hand does not look that crazy. It looks like OTB is overbetting the river to make all Acehighs fold, most 9s and a bunch of King highs that he can bluff on that river with that huge bet.

I think in OTB's mind( obviously his line of thinking is way above mine) he makes more off of bluffs and 10 10 was one of the better hands Kanu could have in that spot.He probably some how ruled out larger pairs due to the way the hand played out. I think OTB also used that bluff to balance his strong hands in that spot.

Kanu is still put to a really tough decision on that river, and he had Pocket Tens!!Could Kanu call a 9 with a bad kicker there??? Not sure to be honest, as I am more of a Rec player.

Not sure what level your on, but Kanu overbet the river... not OTB

You realize otb didnt make a single bet in that whole hand

Let me get my glasses. Ok I need to look at that again. Sheesh I am an idiot!

He called with QJ high when Kanu bet 8k into a 3900 pot??!?!? Wow!!! I guess he put him on a bluff.

he sure did vince

Van patten OR Mcmahon?

i lolled so hard over this comment i had to log in just to say it!

he is dropping a subtle hint that Kanu is multi accounting under the other name of OtB_RedBaron. it all makes sense now, so many layers of levels.

Stop Cyber bullying me!!

How's that 455 thou treating you?

New ep out. lol at needling reddit and poker guys

So, what are Kanus bluffing hands that otb can beat?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yEdtO6yjsc