Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdonk
How do you estimate the wort of a company that is seemingly in complete private ownership? In school i have learned that it is worth the sum of discounted future earnings. A rule of thumb is that you simply add the estimate the earnings of the next 5 years (since the company has a high risk of going out of business within the next decade you can apply this rule of thumb here). So FTP earns 800 million a year (netto). Realistic?
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As you said the discounted earnings is one method.
Probably the most popular method though is the price to earnings method. You use the earnings that the company makes per year (post-tax profit) and multiply it by the price : earnings ratio (P/E) of the shares. In the case of a private company, there is no (P/E) ratio given. Therefore, you use the P/E ratio of a company in a comparable industry. In this case, you could take the P/E ratio of PartGaming which is 23 (
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=prty.l) This is incredibly high compared to most industries, for example Tate & Lyle has a P/E ratio of 10 (valued at 10 x earnings), and so likely reflects the growth potential predicted in the industry / other reasons.
You should then make some adjustments to the P/E ratio, to take into account for any differences. For example, it would be harder for an owner of FTP shares to transfer them as they're not publicly listed etc. This would likely decrease the P/E ratio by ~ 20%, so you'd probably use a P/E ratio of ~ 18.4. The earnings can be be obtained from the accounts. So if FTP had earnings of $50m last year (this is a complete guess i don't know) then it may be valued at ~ $920m (18.4 x $50m).
The earnings figure used should be future maintainable earnings however, and so FTP would likely argue that future maintainable earnings will be much lower due to impending UIGEA implementation etc, to lower the valuation of the company in the case.
Valuing FPT at $4bn seems ridiculously high and would suggest that you believe that they have maintainable earnings (post-tax profit) of ~$220m. However, in suing FTP she's obviously going to over-value the company to try and increase her claim of her 'stake'.