Nope. Bad players win tournaments. Sometimes they win multiple tournaments.

Even with perfect data(all their buyins and cashes) you still have no idea of real ROI because of small samples in live tournaments and a huge range of buyins.

Sample would need to be huge considering <10% of buyins are $10k and most of the volume is $500-$1500.

I would rather see Sage posts than not see them. I think the analysis is pretty speculative, but even if I knew the premises were wrong, I wouldn't be comfortable explaining why.

I'm pretty comfortable saying that Cate probably has fifty IQ points on Dentale.

I believe that I have very clearly written how the formula works and I have also answered all questions including about sample size, which I believe many people are mistakenly comparing to sample size in relatively small buy in on line comps.

Yes but I am offering a solution, no one else has. I am afraid that this is the sheep like mentality of many people who post, although not necessarily the mentality of many who read the forum but choose not to post.

Indeed the thread I referred to about the Pokerstars strike was linked on some poker news web sites and I had direct inquiries to me from businesses who were building new poker playing web sites offering me to work for them as they could see that I knew what I was talking about, whom for reasons of confidentiality I cannot name.

"Oh we just give up, you can't possibly know someone's ROI because of incomplete results".

"Oh Pokerstars are putting up rake/removing benefits, so we'll go on strike as there is no other solution"

Everyone has differing views and often mine are wrong, but simply saying "you are wrong" and adding no reasoning why is a non argument.

I have posted on many other forums, both poker and non poker ones, and 2plus2 is by far the hardest work because unless you post something funny or a meme or agree with the consensus opinion on the subject you are very often in for a really tough time.

Certainly not suggesting he shouldn't post, simply that Sage putting an overall ROI with more incomplete information than real information creates irrelevant information.

In a HU4rlz situation, it is more important to look at Cate vs Mike and their independent personalities, temperaments, as well as successes and failures of course, etc. But I think it's pretty clear that the factors of the heads up match (which to be fair is what the thread is about) is more about their past, how they could possibly perceive each other, and a lot more obvious things than vastly incomplete information.

The only offerings I can give up are about Mike as I played once with Cate and I thought she was more of a nit than one would imagine.

Played w dentale only a few times at Foxwoods.
But not everyone takes steroids just because they are in shape.
Considering probably 70% of poker players have never played a competitive sport.. it's easy to look like Arnold when you compare them to the internet wizards who are pale year round.

And for the record my arms are bigger than mikes. Sick ebrag !

He's admitted to steroid use though...

although tbf he claims he no longer takes it because he's older and it's riskier.

Fair points that big factors in this HU cash game are what you just stated. My intention of the MTT ROI was as a factor in gauging their general poker playing aptitude and I completely agree cannot be used as the sole or actual guide to HU cash game play.

I take on board your point about incomplete information in my formula, you are absolutely right.

I don't know if you follow cricket, but there is a parallel with a system (formula) called WASP https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WASP_(..****ulation_tool) "Winning and Score Predictor" developed in around 2012 by a PhD graduate at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand.

In short it makes predictions of the total runs scored by the team batting first in a one day cricket match and the % chances of the team batting second winning the match. It is totally dependent on historical results data being plugged into its formula.

When it was first used as part of TV coverage in 2012 it threw out some good results/predictions (mathematical forecasts) but it also threw out some very questionable ones and ones that were clearly incorrect.

But as time has gone on it has become more accurate because it is calling on a progressively larger pool of historic data and in particular recent historic data, because the game of cricket and therefore the math it produces has evolved over the last 5 years.

So this is how I feel about my formula, it *does* as you have stated need more complete data, and as I said if some players could be encouraged to make a full declaration of results then their data could be applied in a mathematical merging way to other players' incomplete data to calculate their likely ROI.

In other words there are probably 10 or 15 other "Mike Dentales" out there in terms of their results patterns, so if we had the complete results of 1 or better still 2 of them, the data would give big mathematical clues as to other players' ROIs who have a similar pattern of cashing data.

This is the formula they use for WASP in cricket: V(b,w)=r(b,w)+p(b,w)V(b+1,w+1)+(1-p(b,w))V(b+1,w)
Easy eh!

very interesting thank you for sharing.

Girls are nits. Surprise, surprise. That is pretty bad for hu format, but Dentale is pretty much a huge whale, so it should be close.

For being a thread on this topic, you guys sure are getting off topic:

thanks for the update, pope

Back purely on topic of the match itself.....

I am wondering whether they are really going to be hurling verbal insults across the table at each other in real life. It's real easy to type an insult on social media, but when they meet in 3D will they choke and be reticent?

Also will they shake hands at the start and the finish?

Is this escrowed to ensure both show up?

Different but the more commonly known coined term for WASP.

White Anglo-Saxon Protestant (WASP) is an informal, sometimes disparaging term for a closed social group of high-status and influential white Americans of English Protestant ancestry. The term applies to a group who control disproportionate financial, political and social power in the United States.

Yes I knew about that use of WASP, it was still being used quite frequently in the 1980s and 1990s in the UK but I haven't heard anyone in regular speech use it in the UK since then.

best 2 out of 3 15k per match so ya 30k max loss

Are they both playing at Borgata in January? Why not have this match there if they are?

you're actually reading that nonsense? lol

hendonmob ROI "analysis" from a random NVGer who doesn't know either of the parties involved and starts with a bunch of baseless asumptions. yea, i'm good on that.

nice to see a challenge locked in, have we decided on escrow yet? i hope there's an egregious amount of ****-talking in this match. trump supporters with all their anti-PC rhetoric seem to always need safe spaces when challenged in discussion- in all likelihood, a few half-assed needles would badly trigger him.

"Best 2 out of 3 Freezeouts. $15k each. 50-100 blinds." - how to fail at describing a format by matt glantz

Extremely lame and anticlimactic that it's going to take 3 months for this to happen. The grudge in the grudge match will be forgotten.

150 BB poker is fine for online but BORING live. Should've kept it at 25/50.

Wasn't the reason this didn't happen immediately, because Cate was traveling the Prague?

I've just read on twitter that she's cancelled that...



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Don't think she is a nit at all, but I think traveling from room to room forces most to play tighter since you don't have sufficient history

Have played hands with her where she 4b shoved AQo

5b A hi, fired 3 streets and lost to a bluff catcher



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150 BB freezeout? Let's just make it a hyper turbo HUSNG.

This change in format is likely the fault of all those who complained that 25/50 was too small.
I'd much rather watch 25/50 deep with mandatory top ups.

I think it's funny that they both believe the match is going to prove who the better player is. Best 2/3 HU freezeouts w/150bbs each?

Whoever loses is going to blame variance (and they have the right to)

If you guys want to prove something, put in a decent cash sample size online and post graphs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vazdog33 View Post
Much like the recent election, I think this head's up battle features 2 awful ppl which makes rooting extremely difficult.

You have 1 option that is bad (Dentale)

And you have another option that is disgraceful (Cate Hall)

Logically, you must go with the less bad option...which is Mike Dentale.

Hopefully Cate Hall loses..........and loses BAD!!



With Adam on this. Don't know how anyone could root for Dentale....