Doesn't matter how many bullets fired !!! ( bullets come and go ) but at least a min cash on Hendon mob will last a lifetime !!! And with enough you can get the twitch viewbois to pay a nice Mark up !!

You mean HUSNGs at LuckyChewyPoker?

Go look at the other thread where it spends most of its time. It will quickly become very apparent.

Cate Hall couldn't even beat 2/5 NL.

What tangible "massive benefit" have they gotten - that they are being searched more for on HendonMob? I don't think that's a win compared to both being exposed as clowns.

Hendon doesn't purport to be anything more than it is. It isn't even slightly misleading.

It is not as easy as that, because many/most tournaments will only have, or at least be prepared to email The Hendon Mob with the cashing results. Even if they did record the names of all entrants, which is not the case with all tournaments then it would be up to 10 times more work for them to email The Hendon Mob with everyone's results and more work for The Hendon Mob to then input them.

So I don't think it will ever happen, plus you could never do it retrospectively so you'd end up with two sets of data, pre all results being recorded and post all results being recorded.

All we can do in my opinion is use the kind of method I used to estimate someone's ROI, which I think we can do within maybe a 15% margin of error either way.

Using this margin of error I am very confident in saying that Cate Hall has an ROI of +41% to +71% and Mike Dentale from -2% to +28%.

We could cut down the margin of error to 5% either way if a number of players were prepared to come forward and honestly declare their total life time buy ins and total number of Hendon Mob listed tournaments played.

Then we would be able to work backwards and come up with some pretty accurate numbers to use as the multiplier to calculate someone's total buy ins compared to the buy ins that are shown on The Hendon Mob.

We would still need to assign any given player a multiplier to estimate their total buy ins, but it would be a reasonably accurate science to categorize a player as a "cashes 1 in 12 times player", or 1 in 8 times or 1 in 5 etc based on data received from a number of players of varying results and varying results patterns.

Anyone who is a regular backer should really be very interested in solving this because at the moment backers are applying a lot of guesswork regarding what is a fair premium to pay when backing a player for live MTTs.

can't recall the details, but a few years ago there was a site with the WSOP cashes / buy-ins. back then wsop.com posted all the entries of each event (which was good for backers), but either they got complaints or they didn't like the fact, that others 'abused' this information (and showed how many poker-pros lose), so it was only two seasons available ... so long story short, there's zero chance, this will happen

http://wsopdb.com/

It only has 2011 and 2012 WSOP entries.

Will show you how some of these estimates are low. Not hard to have >$50k in buyins in less than 2 months. Probably well over that when you include other series going on in the summer. Anyone playing some 10ks is probably going to be closer to 100k just during the 2-2.5 summer months.

Yes a very touchy subject, that most players are losing players in live MTTs and that outside of the group of significantly losing players there is a huge chunk of players who fall somewhere between an ROI of -20% and break even. Minus 10% being the average, but not the median of all players. The effect of juice.

Now that's funny. I don't care who you are.

Vincent Price here.

I remember Dentale from this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw3a6kdFYdM

Definitely worth re-viewing.

There's also more than a few chronicles of alleged scumbag behavior by MD.

Here's an example:

https://www.pokertube.com/poker-news...ed-of-cheating

Wait, what's wrong with being a crackhead, Mike?

Hall doesn't hold a candle to Dentale in the looks department. Not everyone is perfect though.

When all you've done is take a random guess at each player's ITM % and extrapolate from that, I wouldn't try to claim that you've estimated ROI with any degree of accuracy.

agree wholeheartedly, but if he posts another novel, it's all your fault.

I've later stated that giving a margin of error of 15% either way on the estimated ROIs is reasonable.

My guesses of their ITM percentages is not random, it is logic based. There is a big area of ITM % estimates that we can rule out when a player has played 150+ tournaments, those being 1 in 3 or better and 1 in 20 or worse.

Logic also tells us that if a player is showing many top 10 finishes as well as top 3s and wins then they are not a fish in the game, with the exception of a very small number of well known recreational whales, who are usually easily identifiable by them almost exclusively playing high rollers.

So if a player is not a fish and they are showing a decent incidence of top 10 finishes then I think we can also rule out the ITM % range between 1 in 12 and 1 in 20.

For players such as the two in question we are then only left with an ITM range of 1 in 3.25 thru to 1 in 11.

Then yes I am applying ITM % estimates based on looking at the pattern of cashing results over time and also factoring in that if a player has a number of good results over a decent sample then we have to attribute a good portion of this to them having an edge in the game rather than it being positive variance.

The system can be refined quite easily once some actual real ITM % and/or real total buy in data is collected or offered.

Some players, not because I have requested it, have already stated their numbers in blogs and tweets etc.

Sure you would be relying on them declaring honestly.

An example is a player, who I won't name, who said he has ~$800K of live cashes and ~$400K profit. I looked at his Hendon Mob total cashes and total buyins, worked backwards and with these figures calculated that he cashes 1 in ~4.25 times.

The more data that is analysed, the more easy it would be to assign any given player with an unknown total buy in figure an estimated ITM %, and thus estimate their ROI.

If I get time at some point I may decide to develop this model to a higher level of sophistication because I think it is of some value and use to certain people...... or maybe people could just start owning up and saying "I know it looks like I am good at poker from my Hendon Mob results, but actually I am not!" Lol

hey dude respect their pronouns alright?

Again what does someone's MTT itm % (over a small 14 month sample) while playing 20-60 bb poker have to do with DEEP heads up cash ???? Hendon mobs got you acting crazy

I've already answered this question in a previous post ITT

Also, I made the ROI estimates to address the question someone posed ITT about how much money Cate Hall has really made, and I came up with an estimate for that too.

SageDonkey you're trying way, way too hard. They're both pretty detestable people, I'm hoping for Dentale to bankrupt her because he doesn't pretend to be anything else.

you're making this thread suck with your constant uninformed speculation, it's probably time for you to stop posting

It is not my fault that 2plus2 is characterized by a high percentage of posters whom if anyone dares post anything that is different from that of having a sheep like mentality they get flamed and criticised for posting, but very rarely does the criticism contain any debate or make any points, other than your post is bad or you are talking rubbish.

So what is making this thread suck if it is, is the uncontrollable urge of a significant number of 2plus2 posters having a default mode of flaming and criticising others but offering nothing back of any value of interest.

Who is the better player is relevant to the thread. Additionally people ITT have called one or both players out as being bad players, which I disagree with, with one poster stating he doubts Cate Hall has even made any real money for herself due to the likelihood of her being heavily backed.

I addressed/answered these issues by coming up with the best formula I could to estimate a player's ROI.

Some people have questioned the formula, or the amount of estimating I did with the variable of the ITM % within the formula. I answered these questions.

Please don't expect on a forum to rubbish what a poster has written, especially when they have written it in an impartial way, and for them not to have the right of reply.

Perhaps you should focus on writing something potentially of interest yourself, as it is very easy for anyone with >2 brain cells to be a critic but offer nothing of any value themselves to the discussion or the topic.

When you behave like this you put a lot of people off from posting in the first place, not just me, in other words you are displaying destructive not constructive tendencies.

I doubt I will be posting much or anything more on my ROI formula, as I have covered everything but I may post on other aspects of the HU4RLLZ challenge.

Given that you and possibly many others will simply not accept the validity of my posts, I will give you some evidence of the habitual flaming and criticism of many of my posts and/or threads that I have started on 2plus2.

When the players' strike (boycott) against Pokerstars was called I started a thread which basically said, they are a gaming company they will do what they like, so stop moaning players and build your own poker web site. I got the biggest flaming ever by masses of 2plus2 posters. A few months later and Phil Galfond announces he is doing just that, as has Andrew Lichtenberger.

Don't flame, debate please, it is much more normal.

It is not my fault that 2plus2 is characterized by a high percentage of posters whom if anyone dares post anything that is different from that of having a sheep like mentality they get flamed and criticised for posting, but very rarely does the criticism contain any debate or make any points, other than your post is bad or you are talking rubbish.

You ramble on seemingly about nothing and you sound educated but your explanations and math, logic-- dear lord...

I addressed/answered these issued by coming up with the best formula I could to estimate a player's ROI.

You must realize that even a few points on an ROI is huge and that you can't get a good realistic number.


To summarize, your posts ITT have been mainly speculative and hard to follow.