oops wrong thread.

Paging entrepreneur life Alex dryfus . Perfect oppertunity for next season gpl , make cate hall the captain of team SjW/cuck with bonomo etc and dentale can captain team bro with his east coast ( jersey shore esq ) bros like Eugene Todd bro !!! No censorship with trash talking encouraged .. The current gpl model isn't working btw was there even a German on Berlin ???

How did this not get any love? Funny af dude

Running Face Hunter in this meta was poor strat for Cate Hall, way too aggro. Should have countered Dentale with N'Zoth Pally imo

link to Todd Breyfogle thread where this originated plz. I want, to fit, in.

What do you mean come to? I say finally.... poker is back!!!



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the amount of tournaments you estimate they played are incredibly low in both cases.

Yes it is guesswork but the logic I have applied is that Mike Dentale is unlikely to be a losing player in live MTTs, nor is he likely to be a big winning player in them.

I have deduced the first part of this from the fact that he has some longevity already in the game, that he has been entering a decent number of $1K plus tournaments, and that he has some very good results in some of these.

So for me, actual data, plus my own experience/instinct of how winning or losing players progress over time, indicates to me that he is not a tournament player who is banging his head against a brick wall and getting nowhere. He does look consistent to me with medium to big scores fairly evenly distributed across nearly 9 years of play.

So I doubt that he could have achieved this by only cashing 1 in 10 or even 1 in 8 times because those ITM rates are of a losing player in general. Conversely he is clearly not tearing it up all the time and dominating, which is why I estimated a 1 in 6 cashing rate.

For Cate Hall it is reasonably certain her ITM % is currently better than Mike Dentale's, how much better is the question. So I used 1 in 4.5 times as an estimate.

Perhaps I have gone a little optimistic for both players, so using 1 in 7 for Mike and 1 in 5.25 for Cate may be more accurate.

If anyone has a better guesstimation method that can be used to extrapolate ROI from Hendon Mob cashes please put it forward or point out if something is fundamentally flawed in my method. Perhaps the 12.5% (1 cash out of 8 comps played) base ITM figure I've used it wrong? But it does feel about right to me.

Patches Pirate tho

If you polled most live regs on who's a long-term winner and loser in their games, I'd bet they do no better than random.

@SageDonkey: nice effort, but that isn't a rational method. the data you used (live mtt rois) is imprecise, noisy, and most importantly not well related to the actual problem. the skill set you need to make money in live mtts is very different from the skill set needed to win at deep live hu cash. you also used the data to create (actually, guess) betting odds, however this is a cash game so the overall win% is irrelevant (or is there a sidebet on who wins?)

Yes I appreciate that cash game skills are different to tournament skills, but tournament skills/results over a decent sample size are still some indicator of a player's poker aptitude.

I think the betting odds can be accurately estimated, if through nothing else than by expected supply and demand.

Before typing any of my analysis I had it firmly in my mind that Cate Hall had to be the favourite, simply because she is a full time pro and therefore plays a more technical style of game meaning she is likely to be more adept at triple barreling and range and against range type play, which is why I think Mike Dentale getting some coaching so that he is even more aware of this part of her game would be beneficial to him.

For sure, loads of people will be side betting on this event.

Yes the underground cash games and his greater experience in these is his "street smarts" advantage. I also think he may come with some premeditated psychological warfare techniques that no amount of coaching that Cate Hall receives will prepare her for in a one off HU challenge.

Being a woman she is way more likely to lose her cool and get emotional (as she demonstrates all the time). She'll quickly be thrown off her game and make some bad moves.


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I'll put some action on Cate. Escrow with El Diablo or other known neutral.

Who cares about itm % in mtts (worst mtt stat to judge a players ability assuming you think the higher % cash the better))it's about the scores(late game crushers) not how many min cash you have ( when you factor in re entry and travel expenses you are likely losing $$$$$ with a min cash) I'll take the bro who's been around longer and has a lot cash experience over the 2-5 pro who binked an mtt early in her 2 year career that helped propel her into other mtts .. Without that 1 lucky bink 14 months ago cate hall would be another faceless nitty 2-5 NL "pro" who is one bad run away from going broke.

Late to party is this actually happening? When and what kinda odds is Mike getting/giving possibly interested in action

Sage, interesting analysis. But I think your odds are unmoored from the rest of it. Playing big stacks of MTTs really isn't the same as 200BB HU freezeouts. I doubt either player could be a 2:1 favorite over the other. How would, for example, an AI every hand strategy do against a non-exploitable GTO strategy? I don't know, but I suspect the AI every hand player wouldn't be a 2:1 dog.

If you read through the method of my analysis, I was not evaluating the players based on their live MTT ITM %, I plugged in an estimated ITM % for each player in order to derive an estimated live MTT ROI.

I agree that expenses, and taxes where applicable (e.g. for USA players) are a factor in net profit, as are rebuys and re-entries. I did allow for rebuys and re-entries in my calcs.

I agree that 9 years solid experience of cash games and in a bigger variety of distinct cash game settings is an advantage for Mike, but I would disagree that Cate's results are just lucky bink based. The chances are that she has run better than expected EV during that 2 years, but had she not then maybe she would still be on the same kind of ROI as Mike's, assuming my estimates of their ROIs are anywhere near accurate.

A lot of players who are relatively new to bigger buy in live MTTs are backed, and when it is for comps of $2K plus, the backers often are top pros who have seen something potentially exceptional in a new prospect so will back them and maybe even pay some of their other expenses because they want to be in on the ground floor of a prospect who could go on to win very, very big and then benefit big from this themselves somewhere down the line.

Therefore, to a lesser or greater degree, Cate Hall's backers/investors are likely to be top players themselves who have already evaluated that her playing skills are very good and/or have the potential to be exceptionally good.

Ok so I kinda caught up on twitter somewhat. Looks like this will possibly happen in march? I would possibly interested in dentale up to 500 depending on odds, and if anyone could come up with good odds I would take 50/100 on this match never happening by a certain time.

Pm me and if we agree in terms/escrow we can make something happen.

2/1 (1/2) is where I thought the market would start out but as I mentioned I think it will and should move nearer to a flip as the match nears. We've already seen comment ITT that some people favour Cate's perceived superior technical skills and others favour Mike's perceived edge as a more seasoned cash game player.

These opposite type profiles of player is what is making this match up fascinating.

I've looked back ITT and seen this from Brian Hastings:

"Want Dentale +130, need escrow with reliable source like Glantz, DNegs, Galfond"

I just found a good USA/Decimal/UK odds expressed as converter
http://oddsconverter.co.uk/

So Brian's request at +130 means he wants to bet on Mike at 11/8 UK odds or 2.38 decimal odds.

I don't know if this is where the actual line currently sits, if so then my 2/1, 1/2 is a little out although on balance I would rather bet on Mike at +130 than the other way around as I think he can close some of the technical gap between now and the match whereas Cate cannot close the experience gap.

Lol @ estimated live mtt roi , lol @ sample size !!!! Cate plays what 80 mtts a year for 2 years

A small sample size in live MTTs has more significance than a small sample size in on line MTTs.

The reason is that it takes a lot more effort, planning and careful game selection for someone to play in a live MTT so consequently they are putting in a lot more effort into a single live MTT than they are into a single on line MTT.

In on line MTTs players are often experimenting with different game types, structures, buy ins and playing styles, partly because they can and partly as a means to find the best combination of these factors and work out which game, structure, buy in and playing style works best for them.

But typically when you enter a live MTT, one, it is at a much higher buy in than your average on line MTT buy in, and two, it is way more likely to be in a game, buy in and structure that you already know you are suited to.

Therefore, in my opinion, we should give a bigger sample weighting for live MTTs than we should for on line MTTs, so 160 comps in 2 years looks small but may be the equivalent of 3 to 5 times the number of on line MTTs, perhaps more.

I'd much rather play against Dentale than Cate at a FR table.

Mike has this uncanny ability to get people to pay him off with 2nd pair type hands. But overall he is a much worse player.

When it comes to HU cash poker I don't think either has much experience. Cate is more familiar with the software tools and has better contacts within the community. She also is very strong with live tells so it would shock me if she has studied mike.

10/10

I'm available.

Need a few days to wrangle up the $5 though.

Can anyone reputable escrow?