A lot of people have been asking me who I'd pick for the main, because they have bets going on or they want to have a sweat.

Inspired by Patrick Leonard posting his WSOP Main picks on PokerShares I decided to do a post for this year.

PokerShares listed a massive 250+ player list with markups and while I don't like the majority of bets there are some underpriced players in there.

First of all: The most important thing for me when I bet is that it's a fun sweat. Since I won't be playing the Main Event this year, I still want to have some sweats in the main!
And in case you want to have some good sweats too; I think this is a list of relatively underpriced people that are easy to root for and that are fun to rail!

Adrian Mateos (4.3):
I think Adrian is the best player in the world in large fields. In every situation on the felt he wants to win, but more importantly, it seems to me like he wants to make good decisions. He has played on countless big stages, so in case he runs deep, I think he will crush his opponents, especially if they are less experienced. There aren't many players I'd rather like to read hand history updates from!

Felipe Ramos (1.9):
If you don't pick Felipe, you're missing out on something. Such a great guy to root for and imo underpriced at 1.9. Great guy off and on the table who will take this Main very seriously to represent Brazil at the Final Table!

Koray Aldemir (4.1):
Koray has in my opinion one of the best intuitions in the game, especially live. I've spent the last years travelling and playing with him, talking about hands with him, playing against him and I've always been impressed especially by the way he exploits weaker players. He basically never screws up- that's why he's one of my picks for the Main, where people will make countless big mistakes during the long grind. I can't wait to see him crush!

Joao Simao (3.3)

Great guy, great player and all of the positive brazilian vibes! I've played lots with him online and live and I think he's a fantastic player. He's experienced and won't lose his cool deep in the tournament- something I think is very important in the main. One of my favorite picks. At this price, I think that he is a favorite to win.

Maria Ho (2.3)
Maria has countless deepruns throughout her career and already went deep in the Main, so she is prepared. She is well experienced playing against Americans and I hope that this year she will be last woman standing! In case that happens I'll be on her rail rooting for her. I think she's value at this price.

Bryan Paris (2.2)
'bparis' online and one of the most successful online players with over 11M$ in cashes. He has been playing forever and although he doesn't play live very regularly, I think he will be able to bring his skills to the felt. He also streams on twitch nowadays; would be fun if he runs deep and has his community behind him!

I bought action of all of them myself at these prices.

Do you guys like any of the other bets and if so, why?

Fedor

maria ho lmfao

Naza114 will ship the main event.

I dont care what someone's Ev is but you have to get top 2% (~150th place) to profit at >4.0 mark up

Let's stop with these nonsense mark ups

Gotta go old skool...

Phil Hellmuth

Johnny Chan

Doyle if he decides to come out of retirement.

and Seidel

Brilliant27

I think Bryan Paris is a good bet. He streams on twitch.tv. Seems like a good stable family guy who moved from Silicon Valley to Amsterdam for the love of the game.

Disclaimer : Just my thoughts, I'm not putting money on these bets.

For the field size, I prefer to focus on the odds pricing. I can't justify paying 4:1 for a player. They would need a 400% ROI to break even as an example. I would go for cheap pricing on players that have experience versus the majority of the field instead of paying a very high premium for a top top player who poker share most likely spent most of their time pricing.

Kevin Hart : .8:1 - Has experience playing premium high rollers. Even though he jokes a lot I still think he tries to win. Does not have an online grinder's fundamentals but I still think he tries hard and has enough experience and is better than average in the main event. Will be trying hard to win because cameras will be on him along with Pokerstars. I don't think he's just going to throw the tournament away. (4/5 in terms of value.)

Jamie Gold : 1:1 - Would never buy him in a high roller but he has 10 years plus experience. I think he's better than the average player in the field. I think at 1:1 he's plus EV. Weak fundamentals but capable of going deep. Another weak argument is his ROI is really high in this tournament(lol). (3 out of 5 stars)

John Duthie : 1.35 : 1 - Experienced player who plays for fun and to win. 10 year plus running EPT, won a big tournament somewhere and cashes here and there. Played some tv cash games, has a passion for the game. (3 out of 5 stars)

Bill Chen : 2:1 - Wrote mathematics of poker. Very strong fundamentals and theoretical understanding. PHD in math I believe. Better than the field. Price is expensive though. (3.5/5)

Anette Obrestad : 2.2:1 - Use to play with her a ton online in 2008. Was ranked #1 on pocketfives around the LAG era (pre-GTO). Won WSOPE MAIN around 2008. Haven't played with her lately but very aggressive LAG back in the day who will not be afraid to put pressure on scared/passive players. Understands all the fundamentals well, ICM, shoving ranges at different sizes etc. Sleeper as she hasn't played much last few years. Another value is she might possibly be under the radar the past 5 years and not be recognized by the new era of live players. She might be stereotyped as an inexperience scared money female when in actuality she is a killer....(5/5 value).

This is all I have looking at the list. I'm just a washed up MTT pro but I was ranked top #30 on p5's in the 2007-2009 era lol. Once again I have no money riding on this, just wanted to give my input for discussion. Good luck to everyone.

Kevin Hart the comedian?

are these mu´s for real? who would invest in 4.4 to 3.3??!! even if a computer would spit out name x is the best investment for the main event i would never pay 4.4

there must be tons of suckers to justify such prices

These are side bets, not buying a piece of a player.

-Rob

I don't understand what this means. Can you explain?

Look off to your side, that is where the bet resides

Pokershares is selling the action, the player him/herself isn't. Basically pokershares acts like a bookie

Technically you're buying a piece of a player but not FROM a player.

PokerShares (former Bank of Timex by Mike McDonald) is the party offering the pieces of all the players. So you bet against the site instead of buying from the player.

Not sure if you understand how PokerShares works?

FWIW, the first spot that paid out >4x was 288. last year.

I mean seriously, Maria Ho @ 2.2? Nope.

these odds are so ******ed , i am shocked that someone is actually betting

It's hard to think of any other competitive activity that gets a reasonable amount of media coverage where the "best in the world" are a less impressive bunch of people than MTT poker.

I don't get the odds say someone is 4
I bet $100
he cashes $10k
I get how much? $25? That can't be real

Darts.

Maria Ho? looool this has to be a fake Fedor account.

If you live until you're 100, the player you paid 4.0 for does too, plays the ME every year and doesn't get dementia, you will make a tidy profit.

i thought this is serious until i saw ho

I think that is indeed the justification. This event is presumably Pokershares' equivalent to the Grand National or Kentucky Derby. i.e. an event in which lots of clueless people make -EV bets (but have a fun sweat), and the bookies can rub hard currency on their mammary glands for the rest of the year.

What am I missing with the Maria Ho hate?

To rephrase Fedor's analysis: She's quite an accomplished poker player and at that price is better value than some superstars going for 4+...