True, but that is a separate issue. I just wanted to refute xaioret's claim that books don't lay 200 to 1.

The thing is she can always sell the action after he wins 2 bracelets. She's never in danger of actually losing 2 million she's just in danger of losing *a sum quite larger than 10k*

As she said in that twitch interview linked a while back, she's basically laying odds that he won't win 2 bracelets, not 3. Because after 2 she just sells off the action to others. So don't get too hung up on the size of the $2MM. She will never actually lose $2MM.

dumb, idiotis bet for selbst.

In 1977 a horse named seattle slew, was undefeated, and just won the triple

crown. when he was brought to cali to race. YOU COULD GET A GUARANTEED 5 percginent on your money, to bet he would finish at least third. people were mortgaging homes to bet on hom to finish at least third. a guaranteed 5 percent on your money for a two minute race. He ran 4th. loool.





Even if selbst wins, all she accomplish was getting a main event freeroll. If she loses than she will be the target of much scorn for a dumbass bet'

She is playing with the big boys now

OP say she posted, who did she post / escrow with? Would be interesting who is considered trustworthy enough these days to hold 2mill.

Chino is holding the escrow.

Damn,thought its Lindgren,vouched by Lederer&Ferguson.

You win the thread.

DOJ is moments away from closing this thread.

i will tell you what is ******ed. risking 2mil no matter how low the chance os losing is when you can make much more than 10k just investing that money with basically zero chance of losing. see, your explaination only works if you are ratard gambler hooked on idiotic prop bets.

or you could do both

First off we don't know the arrangement they have for the escrow. It's likely that Selbst still has all the money in her control. Hell she might have it invested in government bonds or any other low-risk instrument already and just has signed a document locking it up there (thus she still reaps the interest)

Second off she's still not risking 2mil, she's risking a lower amount where she'll sell off action in case he binks two bracelets. She said it herself; it's basically a bet over two bracelets not three since she'll never take it to the point of losing the full 2MM.

Jfc you guys make me sound like such a Selbst-nuthugger and I find her public persona dislikeable but you poofs are just going full ****** over and over again over this. A +EV bet is +EV no matter what astronomic odds are involved and risk of ruin doesn't matter when you can instantly sell off your action in case a statistical anomaly is approaching.

This isn't true. The four events he won had smaller fields than any WSOP event (Largest field was 156, all other fields around 60). Impressive but not harder than winning 3 bracelets.

dude it does not matter how long of a text wall you gonna put up trying to explain this bs. it is degen propbet that makes no sense in real world where normal people live nahmeen?

So losing once out of every 200 times seems like an insane risk to you? Also she can just invest the majority of that money since she will be selling off against only a fraction of that money if he comes close to the target.

The only instance where she will be losing a significant amount is when he binks two bracelets in the span of like 10 events and has 40 chances of binking the third and she has to sell against decent percentages of that $2M. The odds of that happening are probably lower than her dying in that year.

You have no clue about math so why don't you stop pretending.

You dont know what you are talking about

lets suppose all 4 events had 60 entries as you said

if he has twice the odds of average player his chance to win all is 810k to 1


EPTs doesnt have as many events as WSOP, he probably played not more than 6 events, but lets suppose he played 10 events and won 4 (he didnt, it was less events for sure), odds to win 4 would still be 4534 to 1

A LOT harder than winning 3 bracelets (~300 to 1)

Oh and FYI corporations often and willingly put themselves with much, much much greater ROR than 1 in 200. Guess all of those are degenerates and only the ones that live by your "standards" are "normal".

Your standards would be to get insurance for a $5 gift ticket that you may not be using.

corporations maybe put themselves at a risk of ruin of higher than 1 in 200 but thats with a much higher upside than a rounding error

I mean.. Yeah. You are kind of right.

if anyone wants the same bet ill take vanessas side, pm me

What´s the GTO play on this bet if urbanovich wins two bracelets early on?

Let´s say he has managed to win two already and it´s 10 bracelet events left. Selbst would probably try to buy out vs ubranovitch or sell pieces of the bet, right?

Chances of her actually losing $2m on this would have to be close enough to 0 %.

interesting idea, i can't believe nobody thought of that yet

It's so much fun seeing her lose. I hope this guy will run like god.

Surely she has the 2mm and is able to pay out if she loses, otherwise that would be pretty unethical to book a bet and need to sell action [not already sold] in order to pay out if you lose.

People act like her being able to tweak the bet/action is just going to be as easy as logging in to a trading account and hitting sell. How many people are lining up to risk 100k to win $500? Regardless of EV, and shes not getting THAT amazing of a deal its just a bit silly. Thats 20 people she'd have to deal with that are risking 100k!! I think it's basically ******ed anyway you slice it.

i actually think its a dumber bet for the guy laying the 10k. reminds me of this: http://f5poker.com/poker-news/2014/9...tration-boils/