Yeah this makes me think it is even more of a bluff. Using your table image to help you. Wow what a concept.

From what I read, I think the straight flush is the most likely hand. KK and JJ reraise Dwan a lot preflop. Also, I don't know the player, but if he was indeed a nit and suddenly got excited when the 8s hit, then JJ and 10s9s are the only two possibilities.

The only thing that makes me lean toward JJ is that Morgan called fast on the flop and didn't reraise... But at the same time Dwan was still to act behind him, maybe he was hoping for more action with the nut and a draw to a straight flush.... which is a good time to look for action if there is one. So again, JJ could reraise there for protection against Dwan calling with 10s or 9s.

As for the bluff, I just can't see it. The Russian, overbet the pot on the river, something that screams strenght in a tournament. Morgan has to have a hand to go all-in confidently when another guy overbet the pot, right?

Yeah, I understand where you are coming from. However, the fact that they are businessmen and are older doesn't mean that all of these guys just suck (although many do). These are people who are very successful in life; therefore, they are generally quite clever. Some of them play high stakes games against some of the best pros on a regular basis, and can play quite well. It's wrong to assume that they are all stupid or massive whales that can be easily beat by an average small stakes online player.

even dwan?
any example dwan folding really big hand like full or flush? (not omaha hands vs antonius)

adjust your sarcasm meter

I like the fold. Well played. WHo gives a **** if hes got Quads...when your beat, your beat.

My .02 cents.

With the way the hand played out, a bluff is so unlikely that we should just take for granted that it's never a bluff. Also no one who actually saw the guy's actions seems to think that he was bluffing.

I've played a lot of tourneys with Morgan in the Twin Cities (with buy-in closer to $200, granted) and he is capable of getting it in with far less than the nuts.

Someone said this looks like "straight flush trying to stack a boat", I think it looks way more like "boat trying to stack a flush". I think it is JJ a lot because he doesn't want Dwan to play back at him preflop. Also, if you have a straight flush there why shove?

He may have decided not to show the hand to make others at the table think he had the straight flush when he didn't (not sure would think it through that much though).

For value ?

A flush can't call an all in raise on a paired board. You are 100% wrong.

OP suggested russians have fold buttons, I call BS.

if he puts so much confidence in his read he was excited. yet he doesnt think villain is excited with overfulls?

also not everyone 3 bets big pairs. trapping and all that..

looking forward to an interview regarding this hand!

So much fail in this post.

I can't wait to enter the non-bluffing tournament. That way I will always know where everyone is in the hand. LOL. It is 100% not a straight flush. Human nature would be to show the hand because of the absurdity of it especially if he is not a "pro". I think he pulled off a really great bet, and was very excited to not have to show it. Hopefully he will tell everyone what he had once the tournament is over, but then the question is do we believe him or not.

Yeah, you know...no more than you read somewhere on the intermets. An explanation by the the man who made the fold, is just that, an explanation of why he made the fold. Of course it is suppose to make some type of sense. This is never a good fold, even if your man has the straight flush...

Exactamundo! Check out the big brain on yaam!

A) B) I believe A AND B are both real possibilities...

Thank you Captain Obvious, and while that is theoretically correct, not everyone that pays poker (even this event) thinks in this posting board mindset you have. I actually think B is more likely than A. After all, these are grown men, not posting board boys

THREAD WINNER THUS FAR!

I think he could well have mucked a worse hand without showing because he was confused and maybe a bit embarrased when he realised he had shoved worse for value and misread the situation. I mean it would be a pretty big wtf moment if he shoved worse for value and it could be that all of the sudden he wasnt sure his shove made sense. I would think he woulda shown a bluff although im not sure how he could have made it to the river with a bluff.

Just ask that Brazillian dude in the Main Event last yr if that can't happen

Yeah this would make sense

that is the worst decision I have ever heard of.

Pretty damn sure it was the right fold. Lol at all the nvg pros packing out pot odds. Who cares, the guy had a straight flush ...

i am not assuming that they are stupid. As nitty as these guys are, they are also very likely to fall in love with their hands and maybe overlook that their opponent could have a better hand. I think this is what happened to Morgan here. For him seeing that 8 on the turn screams nuts as he probably put the Russian on a flush draw that completed on turn and was extracting value with river shove. He could not even imagine quads , which in reality is very hard to imagine for anyone, he just wanted the board to pair.

This is the type of players these guys are, they are nits that play abc poker and to beat them you have to surprise them, plus this guy does not think of the buy-in of one million, they are happy to play what they think is the best hand and in most cases is, for amateurs that don't play so much poker its even easier to overlook a better hand. You can tell off course the old guy is a snake when he plays it cool, doesn't show and pretends to be disappointed with fold.

We might never know what he had, but because Morgan instant called on the flop i am leaning towards JJ, not completely excluding the possibility he had T9s, but i would say its 75-25% in favor of JJ which imo makes it a bad fold by Smirnov.

Worst fold in the history of poker imo.

I think if you guys look over the hand history again you will see that there was only one possible hand for the old guy to have.

The deck had to have been rigged the same as online poker and had 6 eights in it. They both had 88. Look at that hand history and tell me I'm wrong. It's the only explanation.

They both followed Tony G and played their sets like sets and made quads and both were playing them like straight flushes to get folds. Smirnov should have seen they both had quad eights and called for a split pot. Bad decision on his part.

I really like this very high stakes tournament.. It makes people play their best tournament game. And, not surprisingly, I saw a lot of conservative plays so far.

This ain't chicken feed, not even for the businessmen. You gotta be a penny-pinching tightwad for a long, long time if you expect to succeed in business.. and a million bucks is a lot of pennies. Continued business success is equally dependent on very slim margins.
You don't necessarily become a different person once you are at the top of the world. Some few might not care about money any more, and those few have surrendered, imo.

As for the pros, the stakes should be so high it bothers them to lose. The only way we'll get to see the limits of talent and skills if it is forced out of them.. Make losing so painful they will avoid it at all costs.

i bet fold that river all day in cash games. easy game!