Quote:
Originally Posted by never fade
Just feel the need to point out a couple of iffy assumptions that seem to be commonly held here; -
1. if the quads was a bad laydown, other guy would have shown.
Why? yes, it would be massively tilting, but there is a thing called class, which whilst rare in the poker world, is not unheard of. Espepcially in a live setting, uber-high buy-in tourney.
2. all the comments about the guy being an amatuer or a business man - i.e. is something of a mark. Not being a 'pro' - i.e. deriving income from other sources besides the game - does not mean the player lacks the ability to think and play at pro level. As some poster above said, this russian is one of the top high-stakes class players in Russia (obviosuly just taking this at its word, no idea if actually true). Dangerous assumption that he is a weak, or even just a weaker, player that the named pro's in the field.
If hand played out as described above, i.e. quads led with significant overbet on river, then fwiw my money is on this being by far and awaythe greatest fold I've every heard of. Admittedly it could be a close thing between JJ and 10 9s, but why put it all in such a close call.
+1 to both parts of this.
I think the tabling to tilt concept is the thinking of 20-somethings, but the hand was played by a 70-something.
On the amateur thing. The assumption is that "amateur" always means the typical donkey at the local 1/2 NL game. Obviously that's not always the case.
I think it comes down to this. Smirnov considered the situation too marginal even including some JJ/KK/Misplayed Flush in the "amateur's" range and felt that he shouldn't risk his tournament life in what his reads told him was a marginal situation. If he believes his play in other spots vs the field is more +EV than his EV in the newly famous hand, he folds. He still has a healthy stack, and has a chance to win, so what was a bad "cash game" fold is an ok tournament fold. That said, like 99.99% of good and bad players, I'd have called - just saying the fold isn't overly bad.
MDM