Cause you are entering a debate that's been running for ages and bringing up "gut feelings" and "ideas" that have been explained pages ago.
Cause I've been called a donk by random people who don't know me like 50 times since the start of this and the people who did brought no facts to add to their input, just their certitudes.

Remember that I, like everyone else defending him, still think it's a call. Just that it's a close decision and that he is not an idiot for having folded.

At last, because if there was something wrong in what I said, you would be countering the facts and not my attitude. If you're attacking my attitude it's cause you have nothing else to say.

Well put....

I'm happy to keep thinking about poker the way I think about it, and let everyone else think whatever they like, rather than wade into some probably pointless internet debate that will just make me frustrated.

What I don't understand is why so many people seem to think Morgan had just an A high flush. If you have a flush here on a paired board, you call a massive overbet unless you have a head injury. You don't turn your hand into a bluff by reraise shoving.

So let me get this straight. Every time a board runs out like this and the action goes like this, the person who shoves usually has a straight flush? Do you guys even play poker?

No one that understands poker even a little bit would ever shove a flush after an overbet on a paired board. Everyone who think he had a flush are either idiots or they think Morgan is an idiot.

I don't remember ever playing a hand with similar action and I've played more than a million hands. But I guess you often get quads when there's a straight flush possibility, and a guy overshove after you've bet all streets and overbet the river... in a million dollar buying tournament. Happens all the time to everyone.

I think all the possible hands have been explained, and 10s9s is the one that makes the most sense to me with JJ being a close second.

But if you feel like being an ******* while bringing nothing to the conversation, good for you.

Needs waaaay more love.I think people are giving the 9s 10s theory an absurd amount of theoretical credence.Like people are thinking "no way he would have shipped it without the nuts,dear lord not in the drop".Needless to say during the drop that ship's sailed frequently without the nuts aboard.

Love how people are thinking JM is some kindly old millionaire who just picked up a hand strength chart on his way into the cardroom. I mean cmon, "didn't notice the paired board"? You are playing a huge pot with someone in a $1m buyin tourney, I imagine you're gonna be reading the board quite carefully.

Plus forgive me for being a noob/fish, but why should he raise the flop with the T9ss? If I'm sitting there with the nut straight, with a draw to a flush/SF, a guy bets and I've got durrrr behind me (who opened PF), I ain't raising for s***.

aces need to be an option on the poll. amateurs always overplay em

Gtfo. In more than a million hands, you've never seen someone bet the flop, turn, river, and then get shoved on when the board is paired with a straight flush possibility? You're saying it makes the most sense that the shover has a straight flush when this action takes place???!

The guy betting all streets does not have a nutted range. When there's a bet and a call on every street until the river, both ranges are obviously a lot weaker than if there were raises on any street beforehand. So why does everyone assume both of their ranges are so strong as to where folding here makes any sense whatsoever?

It's not like Smirnov is only repping quads and then gets shoved on.

POTY!

tzwien, would you call the shove with As2s as Smirnov?

If not, you're putting Morgan on a narrow range. The fact that we have the remaining 8s is relevant in the theoretical spot as it reduces the amount of full houses that Morgan can have.

Narrow is subjective. Is a range with full boats or better narrow compared to a range with JJ and T9ss? No. Even if his range is ONLY JJ and T9ss it's a snap call! Every other combo you add to that range makes this hand even more lol wtf facepalm

Well KK and 77 are not likely at all given both action in the hand (preflop for KK, river for 77) and read of Smirnov (turn for KK, river for 77). JJ comes up less frequently than in theoretical spot because some of the combos are raised preflop and because of Smirnov's read, but is still enough in the range of Morgan to make the hand a call.

If you agree with that, why do we have a problem?

This and the royal flush comment makes me think he had it. I actually use that royal flush line a lot when I'm sure my opponent made a nice lay down and its always when I had the nuts. Showing the quads made him feel like trash and he'll never give the russian the satisfaction of knowing for sure.


Sherlock Holmes in da house. I think he leveled you dude.

any videos up with this hand?

Not taped.

When I had quads? On the river? I don't remember being in this situation, no. Did you?
Also you have to factor in that he overbet the river (700k in 600k), and the other guy also overbet the pot (2.7m to call in 2m), it's a situation that means extreme strenght 99.9% of the time . So yes straight flush makes a lot of sense to me. Things are also different in a million dollar tourney and a 10$ sit and go.

Smirnov is repping at the minimum a fullhouse in my opinion. A flush doesn't overbet the river.

SF Chronicle should find somebody who is actually good at poker to write that column imo. No offense, but a nit old man never, ever, ever shoves the nut flush on that river in that tournament.

But maybe he would shove it with the nut flush blocker.

Oh, wait... :P


This debate seems to be about reads versus math. Math says snap call, reads say crying call. It's that simple.
If my life depended on it I'd think about folding, otherwise I fist pump snap call, see I'm beat and leave the table laughing maniacally.
I don't see how calling is ever ever ever wrong here. I do see folding being wrong a ton though.

^^ Like!!

Amatuers don't think on this level. You guys are giving Morgan WAAAAAAAAY more credit than he deserves. He likely doesn't understand what bet sizes mean and likely only thinks about the strength of his own hand. 77 makes the most sense to me, JJ behind that, ace high flush behind that, KK behind that, and straight flush behind that (mostly because it's only one combo).

Either way, all of these hands are in his range. He could have any of them. And Smirnov beats all but one. It wouldn't even matter if the straight flush somehow IS the most likely, it's still a horrendous fold that should never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever be made.

nah he doesnt have 77. you're not giving him enough credit.

he doesnt know what bet sizes mean? as if he doesnt know the difference between a 300k bet and 700k bet there? get real. his overbetshove over the triple barrel overbet river is super super strong, amateur or not.

if anythign the fact he is an amateur makes his range stronger by taking any and all bluffs out of his range.

he has an overfull minimum, but im not sure if it adds up to the 1 combination required.

so much facepalm itt

Of course he's not bluffing. That's obvious. 77 is absolutely in his range. Without a doubt. In fact, I would bet every penny I have that there are millions of players that would push that river with 77. Literally millions. And he could have KK, JJ or the Ace high flush (I may have ranked the ace high flush too high but it's still possible).

And if that's his range, it's a call. Like every single time. A million times over. And it's REALLY, REALLY, REALLY obvious that it's a call.