andyg2001: play around with the excel file, the hand count shouldnt change the result too much if you add 50 or 100 more hands

That file doesn't work for me.

I don't trust new posters!

A comment on the Ivey story on cnn.com

"Maybe they just figured Ivy has too much money already? Maybe they subscribe to the "spread the wealth around" theory?" On a lighter note, and more to the point, let me tell you about the time I broke a royal flush off in a guy who made Tens full. It was the 20-40 table online at PokerStars, as I recall. He was holding A-10 off, and I had KQ hearts. Flop came A hearts-J hearts- 10 diamonds. Next card off was the 10-hearts.River was a black four. We capped it on flop and river, he quit the table after I showed him the ROYAL FLUSH. The clincher was when he three bet me on the turn and I didn't cap it, which misled him and assured me he would help me make it four bets on the river, which he did. I was ahead of him all the way and he thought he was playing ME."

I dont know why it would say there is a trojan. Because of the calculations? There is no macro in there.....

:/

confirmed trojan, my butt

Poker confirmed dead

Spreadsheet looks okay to me -- here's a screenshot of it:

Thanks for the screenshot.

PLOBirdie,

I think you are using the player odds and the banker payouts. If you want to simulate betting the player side you should change B2 to 1. If you want to simulate betting on the banker side you should change B1 to 0.506.

Serious post here. Are there Trojans or virus's?

My nick is serious in spanish, confirmed trojan.

winner

Day 1 he lost 10 bets first and then won back 56 bets at a limit of 50K.
Day 2 he played at a limit of 150K and won another ~34 bets.
So he won 90 bets in an amount of hands that we unfortunately don't know.

At 60 hph the chance of that happening is 0.00000186%, almost twice in a million times.
At 50 hph that chance is 0.00000023%, once every 5 million times.

That doesn't mean yet PI cheated, because there could be a Rainman explanation for his win.
In my calculations I used a flat succes rate of 49.47%, but in theory that can run up to 800%
(100% chance you win 8 times your bet).

If you catch a unique situation with very favorable odds -which he was bound to sooner or later- you'll keep these more or less untill the shoe is empty. Then winning 90 bets may be isn't that extreme anymore for somebody capable of recognising and exploiting such an exceptional opportunity perfectly.

pretty much no way the casino can withold this money, especially if it goes to court correct?

this

Why was he allowed to play a second day if shennagins are suspected. Or was ivey behind after day 1 then cane back?

its either A or B

IVey cheated some how if chances are .00017 percent and there are 10 cameras around him they will find out

or B dude is just a sick degen baller high roller. super superstitious and really thinks he is blessed by the gambling gods

I love his Stop Loss style. he just thinks its somehow bad luck

In before massive reveal that Ivey has been cheating in every game he's ever played for the last ten years;
Lance Armstrong stylee.

No. Just NO.

You are an unbelievably bad poster. Your writing is terrible, but the ideas are worse. You do not understand EV. The random nonsensical use of numbers is so tilting.

I am nice guy though so I will give you a pro-tip:

Rainman is a fictional character (that means not real.)

In this thread are a few examples:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/31...y-long-236618/

My numbers aren't random at all!!

From different sources we know he first lost 500K and then won 2.8M back.
That was while the limit was still 50K, so 500K was 10 bets and 2.8M was 56 bets.
The second day that limit was raised to 150K and he won another 5M, almost 34 bets.

I used a trial of 410 with 250 successes and a trial of 340 with 215 successes.
And like I said a probability of success of 0.4947.
You can doublecheck my numbers here:
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

It is possible the file sharing site inserted a trojan. But why go berzerk and scream "confirm trojan, ban the troll" ?

Cmon, grow the hell up.

To those who were kind enough to actually look at my math, thank you. I will upload a version on googledocs and post it here tomorrow.

bubbleblower, use my excel to get the proper odds

That's what the pit is all about, hitting a streak. Heck, you can't beat them otherwise.