Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOBirdie
1. Phil Ivey won approximately 40 big bets ($150K x 40).
2. He always took the best odds. (Always Betting on the banker )
3. Ties are not counted
4. He played 7 hours, at approximately 45 hands per hour.
The odds of him winning this amount, fairly, is 0.12%.
Day 1 he lost 10 bets first and then won back 56 bets at a limit of 50K.
Day 2 he played at a limit of 150K and won another ~34 bets.
So he won 90 bets in an amount of hands that we unfortunately don't know.
At 60 hph the chance of that happening is 0.00000186%, almost twice in a million times.
At 50 hph that chance is 0.00000023%, once every 5 million times.
That doesn't mean yet PI cheated, because there could be a Rainman explanation for his win.
In my calculations I used a flat succes rate of 49.47%, but in theory that can run up to 800%
(100% chance you win 8 times your bet).
If you catch a unique situation with very favorable odds -which he was bound to sooner or later- you'll keep these more or less untill the shoe is empty. Then winning 90 bets may be isn't that extreme anymore for somebody capable of recognising and exploiting such an exceptional opportunity perfectly.