Phil Ivey wins 7.3m GBP in London, casino refuses to pay. Ivey sues. Loses Case. Appeals. Loses - Page 16 - Poker News

Anyone ever thought the man simply forgot about the 11 million?

I read the article and I read a ton of comments here, maybe after they said they would send the money in a day or so bc of a holiday Mr. Ivey didn't even check to see if it hit his account or could not tell the difference 211 million or 223 million.

10-08-2012 , 09:28 PM

#377

Bubbleblower

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 696

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feeble Gimmick

As a ballpark guess of the probability of this:

House edge (assuming banker bet every time) = 1.06%
=> assume probability of winning = 0.4947
7.3m @ 150k / bet = 48.7 bets profit
Assume 30s / hand over 7 hrs = 840 hands
=> need probability of winning at least 444 (losing 396)

Using a binomial calculator with p = 0.4947, n = 840, x = 444, the probability of winning at least this much is 2.7%.

I guess the chance of doing this without going busto first is a bit lower, but who can say if he would have rebought.

Apparently 60 hands per hour is normal reducing the chance of winning the 7.3M to 0.006%.
Of course he started at 50K a hand making it even a lot lower.
Still nothing significant though.

If he had eaten something and stretched his leggs and went to the bathroom and only played 50 hands per hour I can imagine they get very suspicious.
In that case the chance of winning the 7.3M is lot lower than 0.00000003%.
How much lower exactly depends on how many hands he played at 50K.

If the whole story is true at all this could well be the reason for the investigation.

10-08-2012 , 10:01 PM

#378

springzz

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 4,851

there's also a bet where you can win 8 to 1 betting on a tie though. if he was betting those alot his chance of going broke is way higher but the chance of winning enormous is also higher.

10-08-2012 , 10:05 PM

#379

The Detonator

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 4,017

Quote:

Originally Posted by HundredsOfStuff

I don't know how to play baccarat, but can someone explain to me why you can't count cards if the top two bolded statements are true?

I'm hardly the right person to answer this but baccarat and blackjack are completely differently structured games

There may be a way that a heavier deck could lead to more low scores (baccarats etc) or vica versa but I dont think this would influence either player or banker and their chances of winning. It may only increase bankers chance slightly but never enough to negate the comission

And in most baccarat games the dont play the whole shoe either, there is always a cut

10-08-2012 , 11:25 PM

#380

andyg2001

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by HundredsOfStuff

I don't know how to play baccarat, but can someone explain to me why you can't count cards if the top two bolded statements are true?

You can card count in baccarat if you want. And in thoery If they deal the shoe very deep there are times when you can get a small edge. But these are so rare that It's a waste of time. So in practice it's basicly unbeatable.

Check the link below if still intrested in card counting baccarat.
http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/

Last edited by andyg2001; 10-08-2012 at 11:34 PM.

10-09-2012 , 12:21 AM

#381

AdamSchwartz

Shippy McShiperson

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 8,521

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomddxx

4. Can anyone beat a -EV game? Yes. Billy Walters has won millions betting sports which is about a 5 % -EV which is almost 5 times worse than baccarat.

[ ] understands EV calcs of sportsbetting

Billy Walters doesn't win millions with a negative EV. He is +EV on most of his bets (save for red herrings etc)

10-09-2012 , 12:38 AM

#382

moki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,051

Quote:

Originally Posted by REYMARTZ

That is why i still dont understand why he still needed to borrow money from FTP?

As has been stated in interviews by Howard and others, if there was a big game running, and someone like Ivey wanted to join in, he'd have someone @ FTP send him money into his account on FTP so he could play.

The loan wasn't out of necessity, but rather out of expediency. It'd take a while for them to actually transfer their own money into their account on FTP, so they got a loan in the form of $ in their FTP account.

10-09-2012 , 12:43 AM

#383

the_red_q

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by HundredsOfStuff

I don't know how to play baccarat, but can someone explain to me why you can't count cards if the top two bolded statements are true?

card counting does work, but you make more money flipping burgers, because the event, when you are +EV (abundance of 7,8,9s) very rarely happens

10-09-2012 , 01:14 AM

#384

The Detonator

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 4,017

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_red_q

card counting does work, but you make more money flipping burgers, because the event, when you are +EV (abundance of 7,8,9s) very rarely happens

Who has a greater EV? Player or banker?

10-09-2012 , 01:35 AM

#385

andyg2001

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Detonator

Who has a greater EV? Player or banker?

Banker

10-09-2012 , 01:42 AM

#386

ironfalcon99

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 331

Just had 3 winning sessions at BJ and 3 losing sessions at Bacc.. explain wtf im doing wrong.

10-09-2012 , 02:00 AM

#387

serio562

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 3,543

Quote:

Originally Posted by ironfalcon99

Just had 3 winning sessions at BJ and 3 losing sessions at Bacc.. explain wtf im doing wrong.

Did you have a hot oriental woman next to you?

10-09-2012 , 02:00 AM

#388

LTU Westham

adept

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 941

Quote:

Originally Posted by markksman

Howard Lederer owns the casino, IMO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavidNB

Bingo, the winning post

This will never get old.

10-09-2012 , 02:15 AM

#389

spooner90

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,776

Quote:

Originally Posted by d2themfi

"Accompanied by a ‘beautiful Oriental woman’, Mr Ivey, a 35-year-old Californian, was playing Punto Banco, which is a skill-free variant of baccarat"

degen gonna keep degenning I guess

Aw. What's the matter, you jealous?

10-09-2012 , 02:18 AM

#390

spooner90

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,776

Quote:

Originally Posted by David123

this sounds like a shadyass casino.

Kinda sucks, beats being threatened with your life like the MIT doods in Monte Carlo back in the 90's though.

10-09-2012 , 02:50 AM

#391

hellomoto123

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deuces McKracken

queue the "we are all dumber now" speech from happy gilmore

Maybe the speech should be about you because that is from Billy Maddison

10-09-2012 , 04:35 AM

#392

davmcg

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,535

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubbleblower

This is a completely completely irrelevant - its like saying that its 14m-1 that someone wins the uk lottery each week.

Just think what the odds must be of turning 10 bets into 80 bets in a zero sum game like coin tossing. They have to be 12.5% as otherwise it wouldn't be zero sum. Baccarat has a house edge and reduces the odds to 4.5% - the expected duration of the game would be 517 hands.

10-09-2012 , 04:41 AM

#393

raidalot

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,182

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

Just think what the odds must be of turning 10 bets into 80 bets in a zero sum game like coin tossing. They have to be 12.5% as otherwise it wouldn't be zero sum. Baccarat has a house edge and reduces the odds to 4.5% - the expected duration of the game would be 517 hands.

10-09-2012 , 05:06 AM

#394

davmcg

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,535

Quote:

Originally Posted by raidalot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

10-09-2012 , 05:22 AM

#395

Hood

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 6,887

The difficulty with the maths is framing the question correctly. The question shouldn't be "what's the probability after 7 hours you are up 50 bets" but more accurately "what is the probability you can run up +50 at some point in a 7 hour timeframe."

10-09-2012 , 05:48 AM

#396

davmcg

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,535

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hood

The 7 hours bit is irrelevant. What happened was he started with x and left with y. The probability of Ivey playing puntobanco with 10 bets and leaving with 80 is about 4.5%.

10-09-2012 , 06:00 AM

#397

raidalot

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,182

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

You are assuming there are only 2 outcomes to Phil Ivey sitting down to a session: (1) he loses 10 bets; or (2) he wins 80 bets. However, you are ignoring the fact that there are many other possible outcomes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

The 7 hours bit is irrelevant. What happened was he started with x and left with y. The probability of Ivey playing puntobanco with 10 bets and leaving with 80 is about 4.5%.

Its not irrelevant in the sense that achieving this in 100 hands would be a lot less likely than in 1000 hands.

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

Yes, I'm familiar with RoR maths.

10-09-2012 , 06:07 AM

#398

Bubbleblower

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 696

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

This is a completely completely irrelevant.

You mean that doesn't prove anything.
But for a casino it is more than enough to become very suspiscious.

Quote:

Originally Posted by davmcg

Just think what the odds must be of turning 10 bets into 80 bets in a zero sum game like coin tossing. They have to be 12.5% as otherwise it wouldn't be zero sum.

Not if you only have a limited amount of bets available.