How much of a gambler are you? - Page 3 - Poker News

i remember some mid 20s african american guy who was clearly a mid stakes MTT grinder at the Bellagio, ($200 - $1k) range, getting especially mad at me busting him on the bubble with AK vs his pair. He went off for a few minutes and challenged me to 50 flips $200 a pop AK vs any pair he wanted 22 - QQ. You'd think hed always pick QQ-TT but he was playing the feel game and run some 66-99 for some unknown live reg reason.

I won somewhere in the range of 35-40 of the flips busting his live roll for the night.

Moral of the story is Over Cards AIPF vs pairs is a massive favourite when there are any sort of trolling parameter involved so I would bet all my money I had in the AQ situation. Possible mortgage the house and empty the kids college funds.

I have him entirely crushed when he has 11 of the Ax combos and 10 of the Qx combos!

lmao at that ****** choosing 66 even once. lulz at u accepting to #pokerisstilldead

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08-25-2016 , 11:51 PM

#52

adam levine

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,569

Math is hard.

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08-26-2016 , 03:54 AM

#53

elocutionist

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 765

dont think iots possible to get aq every hand.

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08-26-2016 , 02:57 PM

#54

Nick_AA

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,458

Why did this thread title get changed from degen to gambler? That's dumb in everyone's opinion

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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08-26-2016 , 03:56 PM

#55

tenderloinig

adept

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 803

Quote:

Originally Posted by 5=2+2

I'm typically faced with this exact spot (or similar) approx 3 to 4 times per week from mid May to mid October.

You are getting 1/1 i.e. 50% about a true 1/2 shot i.e. 66%. A 16% edge. It's big but it's not free money either.

Obviously everyone's personal situation is different and must be factored into the decision, but 25% is my standard advice in this spot. I'm not doing 25% myself due to different factors i.e. trouble getting on, not needing to risk 25% of my roll in this or any situation, other factors too.

Again, everyone has their own situation, but I really would advice not going much higher than 25%. That 35% that they got is damn real, baby. When you lose 5 of them on the spin then you are glad it was closer to 10% per bullet.

Kelly works, math works, but sometimes in the cold light of day, nothing works.

Keep it tight!

baseball?

what bets give you this edge?

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08-27-2016 , 02:04 AM

#56

abarber

veteran

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 2,281

Quote:

Originally Posted by Auca32

The EV of future bets will not be anywhere close to this bet. You have to factor in the fact that I get free money from the government every month and my future job opportunities have high EV (if you want to use the Kelly criterion you have to include these things). Also, the Kelly criterion doesn't factor in the fact that more wealth gives you acces to more +EV bets in life.

winner

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08-27-2016 , 02:46 AM

#57

subfocused

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 373

I have thousands of dollars in an ETF called $NUGT..It's meant to mimic the gold miner's index + or - 300% on a given day..I'm really happy that even though I'm not allowed to play on Pokerstars, I can at any time..bet on stocks like this with way higher variance or just play the lotto..

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08-27-2016 , 03:28 AM

#58

timrud

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 229

350%

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08-27-2016 , 03:49 AM

#59

OmahaFanatical4

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 5,123

It's a more interesting question with AA vs a random hand. There I think I would bet 50% of my bankroll.

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08-27-2016 , 04:11 AM

#60

Kowabunghole

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 1,645

110%

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08-27-2016 , 04:19 AM

#61

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

Quote:

Originally Posted by tenderloinig

baseball?

what bets give you this edge?

Pittsburgh to win tonight. You heard it here first.

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08-27-2016 , 04:51 AM

#62

Rmbxr9

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 4,817

You sissies need AQs vs. Random hand to bet bankrolls?
A

vs 3

Gimme A10

Gambool Gambool

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08-27-2016 , 07:37 AM

#63

No Pair, No Draw

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 29

Dunno about this situation but I usually play big draws very aggressively.

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08-27-2016 , 08:19 AM

#64

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

I suggest the thread be renamed "How much of a man are you?"

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudyard Kipling

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on!”

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son.

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08-28-2016 , 12:02 AM

#65

iPLOwgirls

centurion

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 157

Quote:

Originally Posted by Auca32

If I was allowed to sell action I would obviously bet everything, but I assume selling action isn't allowed. I would probably bet 40-50% because:

a) I'm not planning on using most of my money for anything but investments in the next few years.
b) I'm young and although I could potentially lose a lot of money I have many years to get it back.

If my networth was somewhat close to the average for my age I would definitely bet 100% because of the above reasons and:

a) Education is free in my country and students get money for food & housing from the government.
b) my major gives me good future job opportunities.

I think all of the above reasons are some of the main reasons why there's a lot of Scandinavian high stakes players. In Finland, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Sweden money doesn't matter that much when you're young because the government always got your back.

If you could sell action? You can't be that dumb I am hoping.

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08-28-2016 , 12:07 AM

#66

iPLOwgirls

centurion

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 157

Unless you are saying you are allowed to sell at a different price.

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08-28-2016 , 08:51 AM

#67

Auca32

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 193

Quote:

Originally Posted by iPLOwgirls

If you could sell action? You can't be that dumb I am hoping.

Uhm there is absolutely nothing dumb about selling action in a bet like this at a markup. In fact, "you can't be that dumb I am hoping" would be an appopriate answer to someone who wouldn't be willing to sell at a markup.

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08-28-2016 , 01:56 PM

#68

OmahaFanatical4

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 5,123

there would be little point in selling action without a markup since the op states we are allowed to determine the size of the wager ourselves

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08-28-2016 , 05:38 PM

#69

iPLOwgirls

centurion

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 157

Quote:

Originally Posted by Auca32

Obviously when OP asked the question they were not implying you could sell action at markup. No chit everyone would accept the deal and risk 100% if they could sell it all at markup. Get a clue, pal.

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08-28-2016 , 07:05 PM

#70

Auca32

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 193

Quote:

Originally Posted by iPLOwgirls

Obviously when OP asked the question they were not implying you could sell action at markup. No chit everyone would accept the deal and risk 100% if they could sell it all at markup. Get a clue, pal.

Try reading the very first sentence in my comment again very carefully: "(...) but I assume selling action isn't allowed." Just stop, you're making yourself look dumb.

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08-31-2016 , 09:56 PM

#71

BustedNuts16

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,516

Quote:

Originally Posted by Auca32

No balls

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

09-01-2016 , 04:59 AM

#72

Synchronic

banned

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 866

OP's original question is very interesting in another context. I was in the game purely for diversion, some are in it for gambling, some to capitalize on those in it for the gambling, some a more balanced type of hobby, some a job, some addiction ... plenty of others I'm sure. The actual gambling had no allure to me. In his example I wouldn't even bet if it was only run once.

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09-03-2016 , 06:48 PM

#73

hbsorbust

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 1

I think a lot of people are overlooking tax implications into the calculation. Assuming the money that you would make would be taxed at the highest federal rate of 39.6%, plus say an average state tax of lets say 5.4% to make the math easy, you'd be looking at 45% taxes on the winnings.

So you'd have a 65% chance of winning, but every time you win you only really win 55% of the face value amount. So if you run some expected value on it for a sample 10k bet:

(.65 x 15,500) + (.35 x 0) = 10,075

10,075 - 10,000 = $75 in profit, or roughly an ROI of .75%

This is also assuming that you don't already have professional gambler status and hence couldnt deduct any losses from your taxes. This is meant to be illustrative rather than set in stone, but the point is that your ROI is going to be significantly lower than is currently calculated, meaning you should bet a smaller amount, and under the right circumstances it would actually be a negative ROI proposition (for instance if you also had a city income tax that pushed you a little higher than my calculations above).

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09-03-2016 , 11:05 PM

#74

Auca32

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 193

Quote:

Originally Posted by hbsorbust

Gambling winnings are tax free in a lot of countries

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09-04-2016 , 02:22 AM

#75

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

Quote:

Originally Posted by Auca32

Gambling winnings are tax free in a lot of countries

Lol.

Other countries besides America are just in films.

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