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Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy

04-15-2015 , 09:47 PM
haven't seen tonight's as i'm on the west coast.

alex has been one of the best contestants i remember.... very very fast on the buzzer. competition hasn't been that great tho. so many players are brain-dead slow like that older woman last night. he has pretty good obscure knowledge too.

i think he'd do fairly well against the best players ever. jennings, rutter etc. but they are moderately better than him.

final jeopardy is interesting and a bit of a crapshoot..... oscillates anywhere between fairly easy to very hard. i hadn't thought of this much but i think the easier the category generally the question will be harder relative to category. i've got tons of final jeopardy's correct on "tough" categories i know almost nothing about.

i think when you are in 3rd place and can still win you want to bet very little. hope everyone misses.

would love to see the math on final jeopardy but it's got to be alot of 3 corrects and zero corrects i'd think. anyone know the distribution?

i hadn't watched "price is right" in years but saw it a few times recently. shocked at how the players apply the proper strategies now. last player or last 2 players do $0 or $1 above highest price almost all the time now.

i think jeopardy players could use better strategy, like daily double bettings. sometimes someone with $12k will bet $3k very late when leader has $19K. it makes no sense. you gain very little and lose alot in EV.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-15-2015 , 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dexmier
Does Jeopardy only accept white skinned contestants?
google "colby burnett". also that really young east indian kid from illinois was really good last season. or that chinese guy that peeved everyone with his betting strategy? (seemed fine to me and alex is doing it right now)

generally though white men below a certain age seem to do best. aggression and knowledge?
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-15-2015 , 09:57 PM
i looked up the stats for final jeopardy... fairly small sample of season 26.

19% of the time all 3 contestants get final jeopardy.

15% of the time none of the contestants get final jeopardy....probably low as sometimes they don't even try. not sure if all funny messages (see alex the other night) are sincere attempts with no success or not. seems like not as the message takes up valuable time.

averages almost exactly one correct final jeopardy per night. so i think given the distribution between zero and three that would mean 1 is alot more common than 2 correct.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-15-2015 , 10:04 PM
ok, i found the exact numbers for one recent season...

3 correct 18%
2 correct 33%
1 correct 35%
zero correct 15%

so if you're in last place there's 27% chance that zero correct or you are only one.

first place.... 27% chance you are only correct or none.... about 50% chance you get it correct.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-15-2015 , 10:58 PM
Close game tonight... Alex and the woman both should have done more on daily doubles. Alex especially

They missed tons of easy ones tonight although Alex got tons I didn't. The girl mostly got ones I knew

Tonight the girl was very competitive but not sure why Alex is so much faster on easy clues in general when u have to wait to buzz in. Haven't seen someone so much faster in awhile.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-15-2015 , 11:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
Yes. In a lock situation the proper wager is either $0 or the max that still guarantees victory. Hardly any contestant understands this, but I would expect poker players to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by captZEEbo
This is not true. When you're in a lock situation, you are playing with strictly your OWN money. Because of this, you have to factor in your life roll. Some of these contestants could easily have a $0 net worth before the start of the show. Let's say they're net worth just jumped from $0 to $30k, because they're going to FJ with $30k and a lock win. Let's also say they have the opportunity to bet $10k and still lock up a win. It'd be fairly reckless to bet $10k (1/3 of your net worth) on a question where your edge is ~53%. I also think it's reasonable to vary your bets based on your confidence in the category and net worth. Just making up some numbers with a small/medium sized net worth: if you have 55% confidence you can bet like $1k, if you have 65% confidence you can bet $5k, if you have 80% confidence you can bet $10k. Basically, it's reasonable to bet small with a small edge and up your bets with a large edge because of the Kelly criterion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sam1chips
I also agree with captzeebo. If you have 80% confidence in the category, then you can/should wager 80% * (Maximum possible wager while still guaranteeing victory with an incorrect response).

Of course, it comes down to personal preference/risk appetite,because you are wagering money that is effectively in your pocket at this point. But many players just wager 0 or $100 or something, which I think is TERRIBLE (assuming that they aren't actively making this choice because they hate the category)
So you guys actually think if you know you have a 10% chance of answering FJ correct you should wager some amount greater than zero? Really?

Can we at least agree that from a purely EV point of view on FJ that if you're <50% to answer correctly you wager $0 and if you're >50% you wager the max?
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 12:25 AM
New Episode Up!

Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie


They missed tons of easy ones tonight although Alex got tons I didn't. The girl mostly got ones I knew

Tonight the girl was very competitive but not sure why Alex is so much faster on easy clues in general when u have to wait to buzz in. Haven't seen someone so much faster in awhile.
Calling her the girl is pretty demeaning and sexist , she's a very smart woman.

Alex was really tested tonight for the first time and stayed cool and determined throughout ,he was very impressive. One of his strengths is take he seldom rings in with the wrong answer , he avoids the pitfalls expertly.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 12:53 AM
That clutch final jeopardy though!
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 01:02 AM
GTO
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 01:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWare94
So do the contestants play until they lose or is their a cap on how many episodes in a row they can win?
No cap, but there use to be one 15 years ago. Think it was either 5 or 10 games.

Also the dollar values use to be lower. Forgot when they doubled everything to what it is today.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 01:21 AM
goddamn, the woman was really good.

I've only watched jeopardy a handful of times, does it happen often that two competitors are close to 20k before the last game?
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 01:22 AM
Worth viewing for those interested in Jeopardy.

http://gawker.com/5860275/how-a-geek...-jeopardy-code
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 01:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monorail
huh? he's not on that list best i can see.

What's his 3-day total so far? (maybe it's not updated in real-time?)
That list is very out of date. Arthur Chu won $300k more than a year ago and he's not on there.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 01:40 AM
OK...So this (former?) poker player is good at Jeopardy.......He goes all-in on the daily doubles when he has large amounts, which is pretty bold and risky, but it has paid off big on several occasions....but why is his demeanor so blase and his attitude kind of unpleasant?.......on top of everything strange about him is that he doesn't show any happiness when he wins.........am I the only one that finds this kinda weird?
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 01:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wahcheck
OK...So this (former?) poker player is good at Jeopardy.......He goes all-in on the daily doubles when he has large amounts, which is pretty bold and risky, but it has paid off big on several occasions....but why is his demeanor so blase and his attitude kind of unpleasant?.......on top of everything strange about him is that he doesn't show any happiness when he wins.........am I the only one that finds this kinda weird?
yes

really though many poker players in order to control the swings will resist the urge to celebrate with a win or get in the dumps due to a set back because it's going to happen over and over again, I don't find his demeanor unpleasant at all.

Last edited by xalas; 04-16-2015 at 01:49 AM. Reason: edit
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 01:48 AM
pretty standard for any good poker player.


he can be happy later
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 01:57 AM
Just to give an idea of his game theory. Going into Final Jeopardy tonight, he was in the lead with $20,700 to 2nd place's $18,600. She wagered $2,101, trying to win if Alex wagered nothing. He wagered $16,501. If he got it right, he would have $37,201...One more dollar than 2nd. She got it wrong and he got it right. In Jeopardy, 2nd place gets $2,000 and 3rd gets $1,000. Her optimal play is to bet it all. If he is playing GTO, she should know he will make it impossible for her to win if he gets it right. His Final Jeopardy GTO play is unexploitable.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 02:00 AM
He was the best player today, but also got lucky. Several high-value questions went unanswered, and girl got 2/3 DD's, while he was in a tough spot and only wagered $100 on his. Girl played well. 3rd dude looked like he was going to soil himself at any minute.

Surprisingly easy FJ question imo. Shocked all 3 didn't get it right (though AJ would have won anyway).
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 02:06 AM
didnt he get it right?
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 02:08 AM
hmmm any VODS of his jeopardy clips?
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 02:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirbynator
didnt he get it right?
Yes. Other 2 got it wrong. Surprised all 3 didn't bink it though.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 02:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by subfocused
Just to give an idea of his game theory. Going into Final Jeopardy tonight, he was in the lead with $20,700 to 2nd place's $18,600. She wagered $2,101, trying to win if Alex wagered nothing. He wagered $16,501. If he got it right, he would have $37,201...One more dollar than 2nd. She got it wrong and he got it right. In Jeopardy, 2nd place gets $2,000 and 3rd gets $1,000. Her optimal play is to bet it all. If he is playing GTO, she should know he will make it impossible for her to win if he gets it right. His Final Jeopardy GTO play is unexploitable.
and if they both get it wrong with high wagers and Doug gets it right?

I don't think her wager was awful, although it very unlikely he would make zero wager

As it turn out Becky was wrong and so was Doug but if Alex had also missed then she wins ever if Doug doubles.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 02:19 AM
Since its a guessing game between $0 and all-in, I think she has to go all-in. If anyone can support another amount, I would like to know why. I'm not saying another amount could not be correct, but need an explanation vs. GTO.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote
04-16-2015 , 02:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by subfocused
Just to give an idea of his game theory. Going into Final Jeopardy tonight, he was in the lead with $20,700 to 2nd place's $18,600. She wagered $2,101, trying to win if Alex wagered nothing. He wagered $16,501. If he got it right, he would have $37,201...One more dollar than 2nd. She got it wrong and he got it right. In Jeopardy, 2nd place gets $2,000 and 3rd gets $1,000. Her optimal play is to bet it all. If he is playing GTO, she should know he will make it impossible for her to win if he gets it right. His Final Jeopardy GTO play is unexploitable.
It's easy to assume her bet. She is betting to pass him by $1, forcing alex to get it right. That being the case alex can bet much less and lock in a victory when both miss. In this scenario when they both miss she wins.
Former poker standout Alex Jacob 6-time winner on Jeopardy Quote

      
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