Depends on a list of criteria.

There is definetely no chance that Daniel would beat top guns in 3max games after only two weeks of practice, but he didn't say he would. All he needs is to become a winning player at 6max games, and reaching this exact goal is not impossible. With a proper approach, of course.

I suppose people are inclined to overestimate a real level of a guy who is able to beat an average 25/50 game with a fish in it. You shouldn't have to be a real crusher to make 1bb/100+ with a strict table selection. I guess, a solid 2/4-3/6 reg has every chance to beat a 5k game with a guy like limmouse sitting at the table.

Would it be hard for Negreanu to become a solid midstakes player? Yeah, pretty much, but not with a possible 1kk sidebet.

Daniel could easily pay like 200-300k to an online superstar like Kanu for 50 hours of lessons and with his background (Daniel is a very smart and experienced player) it would be enough. And this kind of deal seems very +EV for the both sides.

I know how you felt when you first read about it, and I absolutely agree with you - Negreanu would be crushed if he just jumped and played everyone at 25/50. Anyway, since Daniel didn't provide any specific details, he has so many opportunities to make this bet -EV for those who decide to bet against him, so I wouldn't be that excited.

I don't see why he wouldn't be able to. Poker is an easy game.

If there's some kind of time limit on the bet, like he has to play 50k hands in 2 months or something, then I'll prob bet.

Not saying he can or cant do it cause I have no idea but wont the games be a lot different with him in the game? people taking shots, etc.

there's probably enough worse players that would snap put the $ down if they saw daniel playing that'd make up for w/e he'd lose to better players.

im gonna have to start taking big shots lol - i want to bet alot of $$$ on this

Hi Everyone:

I haven't read this whole thread so perhaps my next comment has already been stated.

First, Negreanu has significant celebrity status, and this might mean that if he started to play these games, some wealthy business people who also have an interest in poker might want to sit down and play just so they can say that they played with Negreanu. And if this is the case, and assuming it does happen, then Negreanu should be a clear favorite to win in the game even if he doesn' play quite as well as the top online high stakes no-limit players.

Also, it's my opinion that Negreanu is aware of this since (going from memory) he made this exact argument when he offered to play anyone heads-up for large amounts of money back in 2005 when he worked as a host in The Wynn Casino Poker Room. In addition, isn't this similar to what just happened at the One Drop Tournament?

Best wishes,
Mason

The 2 months 1 million Negreanu prop bet.

1.Must play 50k hands at 25/50+.

2. Must complete within 2 months of first hand.

As stated previously there's a whole host of ways to cheat so i've no idea how something of this nature would work. 24 hour surveillance of DN haha

need to get the ball rolling and some conditions set out.

If he could consistently sit and get fish action online why isn't he sitting online playing for the site he reps?

Yes, I would sell some. But I would take a bigger piece then I did of my one drop

50k hands is not a big enough sample size

Doesn't seem like DN is doing this for the money so cheating is highly unlikely. Also being such a high profile name in the poker world, an ambassador specifically, cheating becomes even less likely.

Where do you draw the line though? It would be tough to ask for more in the space of 2 months from someone who isn't fully adept with grinding online.

Obv be ton of variance- makes for a more interesting/fair bet imo

DN is a quick learner and a winner at most things he puts his mind to i have faith in his ability.

Isn't 25/50 on Stars Zoom only? Makes it impossible to angle shoot.

No. You're wrong as per usual.
Edit: about both statements.

nah, thats 10knl

teasing the fish

Yeah tbh I think it's kind of insulting to these guys.. I mean I'm sure Daniel didn't mean it to be that way, but he's basically saying "oh so you're a small handful of the most elite problem solvers and deductive logic reasoners in the world and you've devoted the past 5+ years of your life to perfecting a very specific craft of 100bb 6m NLH poker? Well I haven't ever really spent a lot of time on that form of the game, but I'm so much smarter than you that it'll only take me two weeks to get to the level it took you years to get to.."

Obv he's not starting from scratch.. but I bet he's a whole lot closer to starting from scratch than he thinks. In fact if he did decide to tackle it and took on a few coaches like kanu or ike etc.. I think it's pretty likely he'd buy out once he realizes what he actually needs to do... provided they are frank with him and point out how massive some of his leaks are going to be and how much work he'll need to do to fix them.

I think the big reason for his naivety is that he's never really played a game where information was so limited such that he has very little in the way of exploitable opportunities and flexibility within his strategy. When your opponent is playing close enough to perfect in a lot of spots that you need to know how to respond to that in all those spots, and you've never once in your life needed to know what that response is like, you're going to be in for a beating.

I expect no less Lefort. You nailed it. I think he has more chance of out-lifting you in 2 months tbh haha

just wanted to say that this is a gross over-exaggeration

if you were to really rank the most elite problem solvers and deductive logic reasoners in the world, these hs regs would not even be close to the top

and he immediately finds some1 that will bet $1mm against. what happens now, he backs out and says it was just meaningless twitter banter, or do they start negotiating terms?

The problem with the idea that DN would attract some more casual types to the game which would in turn boost his win rate is that they'd need to sit down within about 5 seconds of each other.

Nailed!

tweeted daniel hoped to get some action, id put up $200k-$500k action against depending on the actually bet.