Andrew barber discusses the fallacies of buying and selling action. - Poker News

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Andrew barber discusses the fallacies of buying and selling action.

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05-16-2016 , 03:50 PM

doublejoker

Old News

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 9,953

Great article for math geeks.

Is this math correct?

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...t?pref=2&pli=1

Last edited by R*R; 05-18-2016 at 01:52 PM. Reason: linked to same article with better format

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05-16-2016 , 03:54 PM

doublejoker

Old News

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 9,953

Not sure if link works but it's from his @abarber1 twitter acct

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05-16-2016 , 04:51 PM

BEANO52

adept

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 1,031

Followed link. Saw this:

Immediately closed link. Someone should have taught them paragraphs.

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05-16-2016 , 05:29 PM

thrasher789

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,541

Paragraphs would help but it's some good ideas to throw around, I've thought that the marketplace for selling shares has been pretty out of line for a while now.

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05-16-2016 , 05:41 PM

DoGGz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 17,315

Everything is says is fine, but he fails to really explain why any of these things is a problem that needs attention. Most seem like minor problems arising from staking bad horses, and there is no solution to these issues outlined within.

The whole post could be summarized into "Don't invest in shady or underhanded players who would not act in your best interest"

If he has a solution to the issues he brings up that is good for both players and investors, and sure the market would love to have it.

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05-16-2016 , 06:06 PM

CSpoker1400

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 160

Interesting read. I'd love to see the math behind the required ROI needed to make investment +EV for investors as well as player. I understand what the -47% and 20% numbers mean, would just like to know how they got there.

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05-16-2016 , 06:23 PM

OFC_OMG

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 418

"Consider our hypothetical from before: a 15-event package spread over, say, 3 weeks. Our hero decides to run good his first event and take a huge stack into the last level, but loses a big flip with 15 minutes left in the day to go back to less than starting."

If hero decided to run good why would he lose a big flip?

[in all seriousness, lots of interesting points in this one - as someone considering whether to sell a staking pkg myself it perks my ears up]

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05-16-2016 , 06:26 PM

LuckyScum

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 301

Jesus, math here is 1st or 2nd grade level. Can't believe people reading this are begging for an explanation.

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05-16-2016 , 06:32 PM

vrael111

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 2,953

^this

Lol "math geeks"

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05-16-2016 , 06:35 PM

#10

SrslySirius

Animated Character

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,357

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSpoker1400

That part of it is pretty straightforward. If you stake a breakeven player at 1.2 markup, you lose 20% of every dollar you invest. For example, you pay $1200 for $1000 in buyins, and get an average return of $1000, a net loss of $200. You need him to have a 20% ROI for your investment to break even. If you're a losing player at -30% ROI, you need 0.7 "markdown" to break even.

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05-16-2016 , 06:55 PM

#11

Wilbury Twist

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 6,153

Did he edit the post since this thread began? Mine does have paragraph breaks. They're a little awkward – e.g. there should be an indent before "Having laid out my case..." – but they're there, and in the right places. I might break up a few more just to improve readability, but mostly it looks fine.

(The media guy in me cringes at the double spaces after periods, though.)

At first read, it looks rather interesting.

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05-16-2016 , 07:31 PM

#12

suspect76

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 336

I honestly cannot read that

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05-16-2016 , 07:45 PM

#13

Geezer Soze

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 361

"I’ve got more to say, especially in the area of potential fixes, but I’ll save that for later."

Don't bother Andy, we already saw the Producers

"Let's assume, just for the moment, that you are a dishonest man."
"Assume away. .....

Step 1, we find the worst poker players in the world.
Step 2. I raise a million bucks and use $200K for entry for each of them into every event at the WSOP. .......

Last edited by Geezer Soze; 05-16-2016 at 07:56 PM.

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05-16-2016 , 08:15 PM

#14

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

I don't know why one would assume the players selling pieces are winning players. I assumed that most of them were losing players.

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05-16-2016 , 08:24 PM

#15

DoGGz

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Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 17,315

Even the biggest and most profitable companies have insurance. It's because there is value in selling off risk to other parties. Selling action is the same thing. It can often times be a good decision for both the winning player and the investor. To just assume that players are losers or investors are losers in the exchange is really quite silly.

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05-16-2016 , 08:38 PM

#16

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

It's a pretty safe assumption to make that most players seeking a stake are losing players. Most players in the total population of players are losing players and most players on internet poker forums are losing players, so why would a staking marketplace be any different?

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05-16-2016 , 09:51 PM

#17

coinflipper

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 2,223

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

you know what they say about people making assumptions. and given the fact that you can look up the results of anyone looking to sell, their roi an all, its pretty easy to decide if its a good investment or not. unless you are talking about buying action of live only players, then yea.

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05-16-2016 , 10:21 PM

#18

Johnwdc

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 101

99% of time when I go to marketplace and ask what the players ROI is I get no response. I assume this is because the ROI is than markup by far. These players charging markups are laughing all the way to the bank at the expense of clueless investors. You would never buy a dividend paying stock without knowing the rate of return.

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05-16-2016 , 10:22 PM

#19

Johnwdc

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 101

ROI is less than markup I meant

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05-17-2016 , 12:57 AM

#20

coinflipper

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 2,223

dont know why you are asking when you can just look up their screennames and see for yourself. anyone who is trying to sell without providing the screenames is obv shady.

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05-17-2016 , 01:06 AM

#21

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by coinflipper

dont know why you are asking when you can just look up their screennames and see for yourself. anyone who is trying to sell without providing the screenames is obv shady.

They are? Not everyone has a screenname.

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05-17-2016 , 01:59 AM

#22

abarber

veteran

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 2,281

I threw this together pretty hastily, so I apologize for any formatting issues. I recognized there was a problem years ago, and I think YouStake and some other questionable packages drove me over the edge.

I think that many people fundamentally misunderstand this market. I see evidence of that in the marketplace forum and even in this thread.

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05-17-2016 , 02:29 AM

#23

U shove i call

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,809

Mp isn't rocket science.

Do some research whether roi beats the markup in sold games if it does in your opinion buy if not don't.

Most packs are garbage ye gotta weed through the crap to find a +ev package. Funny thing is 2+2 has way the best value for a buyer overall and its pretty terrible here. Once u go on tasty stakes, gpl, pokermarket etc your in full legal scam territory.

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05-17-2016 , 02:56 AM

#24

The4thFilm

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 13,472

The people that make money buying pieces aren't going to vocally speak up here and allow others to profit on their niche. And nobody has thrown together any sort of amount they're stuck buying pieces over a large sample.

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05-17-2016 , 11:30 AM

#25

jtt300

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 384

2 questions
Why is tasty stakes and other similar sites a scam?

Why do people feel justified in bumping up mkup for wsop main?
I've seen 70%@40% mu and 75% @ 35% mu

I disagree with the roi being easy to find. I believe that online results don't completely correlate to live results. Is there any way to calculate a players live roi with available info?

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