1) Way too much. It really gets me out of my groove when I start doing it but I like to talk to people too. But then I'll get too interested in the chat and start missing things in the game. Realistically I probably should just turn it off but in a way it might help me by breaking the monotony.

2) I dunno probably like 25-30k.

3) Yes, mostly because I don't enjoy playing if I'm not playing my best. That was kind of frustrating the last 2 weeks of last year when I was trying to get to 3 mil and didn't really want to play a few of those days, and it showed in my results.

4) No, actually I enjoy playing longer when I'm winning. It's more fun than playing when losing. A lot of the time I really don't have any idea how much I'm up or down anyway because I'm signed up for so many things.

Just tell Stars you wanna go.

Good thread Jorj, Thanks for doing this well. Congrats on your success


do the swings ever get to you? do you get mad? does running good/bad effect your mood after your sessions?

George, as an sports betting expert, what do you think about websites like http://www.blogabet.com/ where tipsters with a proved good ROI give tips for free?

I don't really worry about how I do in individual sessions, but I'm on a pretty big downswing right now from the end of last year and so far this year, and yeah that's kind of frustrating. I'm starting to question whether the games are all that beatable anymore, which I think is a valid question because there just aren't that many bad players playing them anymore and they're filled with the same people all the time now, even more so than before. I'm taking a little time off, I might play once or twice a week for now but probably not much more than that.

As for my mood I don't really think it affects me. I doubt anyone could tell whether I won or lost if they talked to me after a session unless I told them my results.

Complete crap. I wouldn't call them scams because some of the people probably genuinely believe that they're good at what they do, but basically what happens is whoever runs good over a small sample ends up becoming the expert handicapper for the site, when the only reason they did good before was random luck. There's no reason to think they will continue to do as well as they did before.

Line shopping is really the only way to beat sports, and you can do that on your own without their help.

How many picks do you consider as long run and therefore something accurate enough to know if a tipster is doing +EV bets?

The thing is, if you have 1000 people picking games randomly, one of them is going to end up being a 1000:1 outlier and look like the best handicapper ever, even though he's really flipping coins. You won't make money following people. In fact following people can be worse than flipping coins sometimes if other people are following them too and making the lines worse by the time you bet them.

ugh this is scary... i was hoping i was just paranoid and negatively affected by a long stretch of breakeven.

thanks for doing this well btw.

yep i dont think midstakes cash games are really beatable anymore either for a person with average intelligence... beatable as in greater than 3 bb/100 longterm that is. probably the same correlation as SNG's (replace bb/100 with ROI). can avg. intelligence still profit longrun? certainly, but be prepared for insane swings and unpleasent feelings. crucial mindframe is critical.

1. I looked it up from Sharkscope that you have paid about $390K in rake, not $600K in 2008. So its about 95% rakeback from Pokerstars?

2. Do you have a backup net connection provider? How quickly would you switch from one provider to another? Once I looked you up you had about $6000 buyin at tables in one moment.

1) Sharkscope only shows the rake paid from regular sngs. I also play the steps and some mtts which don't show up on Sharkscope. Also it would be a little less than 600k because of playing during double vpp days.

2) Yeah I have my normal internet connection which I use and is pretty reliable but I also have a wireless card to use if that fails. I also have a backup computer ready at all times in case my main one freezes or something.

sngs are dying thats for sure

Holy crap, small world!

When I read your earlier post about losing a bunch in a sportsbook that just stopped paying, I was 99%+ sure you were talking about cascade. I was only into sportsbetting for about a year, but was unfortunate enough to walk into cascade's path of destruction as well. Lost over half my profits because they never paid anything. Stupid reduced juice promo...

I'm guessing with your balance you were somewhat involved in the SBR effort to recover some of the funds. I was for a while, but it started to look like a lot of work for a small chance of getting a few thousand. I'm curious to know if anything came out of it, at least as far as you know?

Haha it's funny Lenny, the owner of Cascade, called me yesterday trying to offer me some deal to play at another book but I declined. It sounded kind of scammy and really I don't trust him much right now. This was the first time I had heard a word from him since the 07 football season. I actually was wondering if he read this thread and saw my name.

Same story as you with SBR, it's been over a year and nothing has even gotten started yet. I really don't have much confidence in them to get anything out of Lenny that he wouldn't willingly give up on his own without a lawsuit. I haven't heard from them in months now.

Have you ever seen the "Gaming Today" battle of the bookies section? Basically, it takes the "inhouse expert" of each major casino and gives their picks against the line (there's about 65 of them). I've got the last 12 years of historical data and picks. Just as you said, some guys run hot, others cold, etc.

But if you take the consensus data, i.e. if 75% of the guys pick the same, then they win 61% of the time. if 85% of the guys pick the same, then win 64% of the time. I obviously wrote a program to analyze all of it and decide what % of BR to bet and if parlays should be used on different bets, and it seems unbelievably consistent. I've actually thought about releasing my results and picks, or start a "mutual fund" with the program.

Would you say that there is some merit to this concept or that the "ghost consensus" picks are just another picker that is on a hot streak?

Seriously, you gotta start trading stocks!

There is basically zero chance that any system can pick 64% winners against the line. This is saying that lines are consistently off by like 4 points from what they should be, which is just impossible. If lines were this bad in a sport with any following (and even those with not much following) they would be pounded by sharp bettors until the books moved them closer to the right line. Sharp bettors as a whole would not leave lines out there that were 64% winners for any lengthy amount of time.

Jorg, can you explain why it was profitable to bet on sports, but now it's not anymore ? What changed ?

What sports did you bet on ? Did you use any programs? Any tips ?

Thanks 4 doing this, great read.

The biggest difference is that it's way harder to move money around now that NeTeller is gone from the US. I used about 15-20 books at a time and it was obviously easy to go bust at a book when your money is that spread out. So without a way to ship money to the books efficiently it makes it harder to shop for good lines.

Add to this that a few books left the US after the UIEGA and it leaves you with less places to bet at. Also I got cut off at quite a few books for winning too much (they all paid me what they owed me at least) and had my limits cut at several others. At the end I was down to only 4 or 5 books to bet at (mostly with limits that didn't make it really worthwhile) unless I wanted to start betting at the 2nd tier books and I wasn't willing to do that because of the risks of never getting paid by them if you win.

I actually miss doing it quite a bit. I'd definitely prefer it to poker if I could make the same amount of money.

You don't bet sports "on the side" much? Also, who you like in the super bowl?

A friend and I do some random small bets with each just for fun on some nfl games but I haven't bet on anything for real since the 07 season, and even for most of 07 I wasn't betting all that often.

Well I want the Cardinals to win just because I've been rooting for them since they've been in Phoenix and it might be 100 years before they're in the Super Bowl again. But as far as who I like in a sports betting sense I really don't have an opinion.

How did you get into poker? When did you find out you were better at Sitngoes? Did you read poker books before you played or along the way?

I got into poker in 1998 kind of by accident. I was playing random games with some friends in a local Indian casino and I saw a 1-3 stud game and sat down and played, having no clue what I was doing. Somehow I ended up winning.

Regarding sng's, I first played them on partypoker in like 04 and really you didn't have to be very good to win at them back then.

I used to read tons of poker books. I probably own pretty much any Sklansky/Malmuth book that was published before 2001.

Thats cool. Similar story here. Tons of books here for me to read. Considering poker is has the luck percentage do you think your edge was increased significantly after reading?

It would be interesting to know what is the most you have won in one sitting vs lost. As you mention buyin for 1k+ games. How can you risk so much at one time and if you do lose it is it like "meh no biggie"? I would cry if i lost 1k in one sitting. If I became rich maybe not but considering how poor people are in some countries it would hurt.

Sorry if this has been asked,

What time of day (EST) do you find the most profitable to play?
What is your favourite day or time to play?
What time do you play at the most?

And do you prefer 2 or 3 smaller sets in a day, or just one big long grind?

The reading of books and 2+2 were very important in my early poker development. I don't read poker books as much now because I'm not sure if there are that many books that could really help me much at this point, and also because I just don't enjoy reading about poker that much anymore. I really enjoy reading books in general though; I probably spend more time reading than doing anything else except playing poker.

The swings in poker are so small compared to what I'm used to in sports betting. My best and worst days in online poker are probably about +/- 20k, while when I bet sports there were multiple days where I won or lost 6 figures. So honestly the swings seem quite small now. Sometimes they still bother me a little though, I just had about a 70k downswing in my last few sessions of 08 and my first few sessions this year and that wasn't very fun. I started to get frustrated and wondered if I'm still doing the right thing. But I played through it and now I feel fine.