IndianaV8 has posted an analysis of preflop all-ins from his massive hand database. See source at
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...h-beta-452536/
This is showing all preflop all-ins for 102 million cash game hands. People have asked for this type of study many times in the zoo. This is a rough cut, but it clearly shows that preflop all-ins come out just the way they should in the long run.
Number of hands parsed: 102661557
Total all-in situations: 400804 (Once per 256.14 hands).
Preflop Equity %.....#All-ins...#Wins...%
0 - 10.....................13675 1026 8%
10 - 20................124839 25435 20%
20 - 30................. 72605 21361 29%
30 - 40................. 77187 28437 37%
40 - 50................111568 51068 46%
50 - 60............... 113428 61430 54%
60 - 70................. 77187 48750 63%
70 - 80................. 72605 51244 71%
80 - 90................ 124839 99404 80%
90 - 100................ 13675 12649 92%
Notice all but the end ranges are near the middle of their range. To see why those are not in the middle, all we have to do is look at what matchups occur in those ranges.
Pair vs. same high card (dominated) is always pretty close to 92/8. That's why the 0-10% range wins 8% and the 90-100% range wins 92%. There aren't any other matchup types in that range.
Now look at the 10-20% range and the 70-80% ranges. Pair vs. pair matchups are always between 82/18 and 80/20 And pair vs. lower suited connector is always around 77/23. What else can happen in this range? Not much, so that puts us at around the 80% mark and 20% mark.
So this chart shows that of 102 million hands on several major poker sites, preflop all-ins came out just where they would be expected to come out. No sign of rigging here.
Crossposted in rigged thread.
Last edited by Mike Haven; 04-30-2009 at 06:12 PM.