Quote:
Originally Posted by sexyjesus
Regarding the ratholing solution, about the concerns of players that play less tables than their table limit use this to abuse the system, instead of using the table limit as the reference number just use the maximum tables the player played at the same time in that 18-20 hour period.
Example:
A player, with 24 tbl limit, joins 6 tables buying in the minimum (40bb). The player joins a 7th table and didn't left any of the initial 6 tables, in this case player can buy in for 40bb.
At this point he leaves one table where he had 70bb. So he's still playing 6 tables and the maximum tables he played at the same time so far was 7. He now wants to join another table. Because this will be the 7th table and this isn't greater than the maximum he played he's still required to buy in for 70bb.
So he joins the 7th table with 70bb but now he wants to join an 8th table. Now since this is greater than 7 (maximum of the day) he can buy in for 40bb.
I believe you know what I mean. Basically, this way there's no need to lower the maximum tables a player can play.
I really like this suggestion. Especialy if you add the idea of eldodo of allowing x ratholes a day, so that you don't disturb the pure recreationals. Only problem with this is that it becomes a bit complicated and hence hard to explain in simple terms. But your post implies that you left the easy sollutions already.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerStars Steve
Your name was mentioned along with joeri's. I hope you are able to attend!
I think it's quite clear why PL/NL games have the same structures while limit has its own. I don't even know where we would start to make limit and NL/PL betting structures the same because the games with $1/$2 blinds in NL/PL are far from comparable to the games with $1/$2 blinds for limit. Buy-in amounts are completely different. Even players discuss winrates in completely different terms.
With variance 2,5 times higher, and rake about double; it seems obvious to me that 1-2 nlh is not comparable to 1-2 plo at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerStars Steve
We are wanting to discuss further with more PLO reps a specific proposal that would result in a smaller portion of PLO winnings coming from rewards and a higher % directly at the tables, especially at stakes up to and including $0.50/$1.00 PLO.
Interesting to look at for sure!
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldodo42
I assume you're saying that winning Supernovas in PLO are doing as well as or better than in NLH, and that winning BronzeStars are doing worse in PLO than in NLH. But looking at only winning players gives misleading results, as the swinginess of PLO means that there will always be big winners and big losers over the sample sizes you're looking at (at most 300K hands per player or so).
The right way to analyze winrates is to run a cross-validation analysis similar to the one gui166 ran (which was originally suggested by joeri): splitting the data in two, choosing which players to analyze using the first part, and then analyzing them on the second part. This analysis will show results that are honest to reality and much less affected by PLO's inherent variance. Unless you ran this kind of analysis, I'd say that the results you have give little information about true PLO winrates.
Jeah. PLO variance is very often overlooked. Looking at results of supernova's is a huge selection bias (because the ones attaining SN are likely the lucky ones). Looking at results of Supernova's after they reached the SN level is a valid analysis. If the results indeed show 100plo is beatable by reasonable amounts, that would strongly suggest there is not much wrong with the current PLO rake system. I would however like to know:
- are the winrates decreasing over time? There is a general consensus that plo games have been weak for a while, but get increasingly though lately. If this is true you would expect the winrates of SN's to decline. And if they do, at what point does PS suggest to intervene and adjust the current rake system?
- 100 plo is beatable? Fine... What about 25plo? 10plo?
I think it is fair to assume that the plo skill level will converge to nlh skill level in the long run. Regs will get used to the game, and plo strategy training is getting more and more common. As rake pressure is roughly double the nlh pressure in the same limit; plo will become unbeatable in the long run*. I hope we (players + PS) act before this happens.
* IF nlh has 8bb/100 rake pressure on a certain limit and plo has 16bb/100, and the rakeback level is 40%. A post-rakeback return of 3bb/100 requires actually beating the game for (-8bb+(0.4*8bb))+x=3bb/100 = 7.8bb/100 for nlh. So making 3bb/100 in nlh in this setting, requires beating the game for 7.8bb/100 pre rake. Solving the same for the plo case : (-16bb+(0.4*16bb)+x=3bb/100 = 12.6bb/100.
So beating the plo game for the same 3bb/100 amount requires a 12.6bb/100 pre rake winrate for PLO versus a 7.8bb/100 winrate for NLH. And this even neglecs things like "a plo reg can play fewer tables simulatainiously", "plo tables deal less hands/hour", "Plo has a way higher risk level then nlh on the same level, so the expected return should be higher if you want it to be economically viable" ...
IF the level of play of plo reaches similar levels as nlh play --> Plo will die...
Last edited by Mike Haven; 05-19-2013 at 07:17 PM.
Reason: 4 posts merged