I've found this thread by accident and i am pretty amazed.
On June 2, 2007 I've posted on internet(even 2+2) such a method for checking the fairness of the RNG and everybody make me crazy.
Even I've written the program that reads the PT2 database to make all the math stuff and graph but give up the research since making poker just a hobby.I will quote myself because maybe someone will get one or two interesting ideas.
"
Some people say that by rigging the odds in big pots online poker sites are trying to curb the flow of money from bad players to good players in order to boost their profits.
Is online poker rigged or not?
Hard to say because we need aggregated hand histories to do serious research.
But I can do some math against specific situations.
Let's say I have hands H1,H2,....Hn where you are against one opponent and one of you two (or both) moves ALL IN.
Let's name your equities E1(H1),E2(H2).....when an ALL IN situation occurs.
Let's define a function that returns the size of the pot when you WIN and 0 when you loose.
R(i)={ 0, if you loose
POTSIZE(i)/2, if we have a split
POTSIZE(i), if you are the winner
}
R(1)+R(2)+R(3)..................
and
E1(H1)*POTSIZE(1)+E2(H2)*POTSIZE(2)+.............. .
should have very close values!!
Now let's define the problem and use statistics to solve it:
N is the number of the ALL INs games logged in a database.
In each of these games there was an equity W(i) I have in pot P(i)
P(I) is the potsize when one of the two players moves ALL IN
0<=W(i)<=1 is the equity I have from the P(i) pot
So in each game I can win R(i) dollars:
R(i) = {
P(i) , I win
P(i)/2 , pot split
0 , I lost
}
Theoretically after all these N games I should have win something like E = sum after i ( W(i)*P(i) ) with i=1,N
In reality I have won S dollars.
How likely is to have such a big abs(E-S) value??
The math part was solved with help from JakeD
here
It's about 'standard deviation' and 'condidence interval's
http://www.mathhelpforum.com/math-he...viation-4.html
Last edited by gaijinuronin; 10-01-2008 at 08:04 PM.