Official 2010 Supernova Elite pursuit thread

[Sly Caveat]

I know it's great odds and all but I think MP could have safely folded the nut low.

[needbeer]

Today...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg

[TheTruthSpeaks]

needbeer- If its not to much trouble could you post your all-in ev graph for like the last 6 mos or so? Just curious

[needbeer]

Originally Posted by TheTruthSpeaks

needbeer- If its not to much trouble could you post your all-in ev graph for like the last 6 mos or so? Just curious

This is about 6months worth (I didn't play half of July and only played a couple days in December.. and was at PCA in Jan). Not too bad in the timeframe, $20k under.

[TheTruthSpeaks]

Thanks Needbeer.

Do any of you guys find it odd that no long-term winning players seem to run above EV on pokerstars? I mean just by sheer numbers it should be around 50/50, no?

I know many people have suspected that their RNG is fishy and many have hinted at it in these SNE threads, but has there ever been a sort of "roll call" involving the players that meet the criteria of being

a. long-term winning players
b. high volume players(300k or above vpps/yearly)

Mods- I know we have the "great rigged collection" thread, but since this is where the players who would meet that criteria hangout could we explore it here just a bit?

Could people ITT that fit the criteria maybe run their numbers for the last six months or so and share their results, please?

[kzk]

wanna see someone that run good? go to the sharkscope leaderboard and search for last 500 games..

them try to found those guys in the tables and play against them....

[onetam]

Originally Posted by TheTruthSpeaks

Thanks Needbeer.

Do any of you guys find it odd that no long-term winning players seem to run above EV on pokerstars? I mean just by sheer numbers it should be around 50/50, no?

I know many people have suspected that their RNG is fishy and many have hinted at it in these SNE threads, but has there ever been a sort of "roll call" involving the players that meet the criteria of being

a. long-term winning players
b. high volume players(300k or above vpps/yearly)

Mods- I know we have the "great rigged collection" thread, but since this is where the players who would meet that criteria hangout could we explore it here just a bit?

Could people ITT that fit the criteria maybe run their numbers for the last six months or so and share their results, please?

I was -10k in AIEV fullstacking ~1M hands at 100nl and 200nl for 2009. I don't think I've ever ran above EV in any given month.

[Sect7G]

Originally Posted by needbeer

This is about 6months worth (I didn't play half of July and only played a couple days in December.. and was at PCA in Jan). Not too bad in the timeframe, $20k under.

And that doesn't even count FPP's Good job Needbeer. Keep up the good work.

[mikey miz]

Just finished a 3k hand, +17 buyin session. Almost certainly the best individual session I've ever had, not that I had much to do with it, I just coolered people nonstop for 2 hours straight.

I've really spent the last week and a half or so forcing myself to take full responsibility for my results and taking a hard look at my game. Nobody cares that since I moved to stars mid year last year I've run disgustingly below EV. And I'm tired of using it as a crutch. The reality is that in forcing myself to put in the longer hours and more tabled sessions I just wasn't bringing my A-game to the table often enough, and not staying on it for as long as i played. I auto-piloted way too much. I tilted, but not in the typical smash monitors/wish aids on people/shovel money in bad, but instead I made tons and tons of bad calldown when i knew i had been outdrawn, "because f them for outdrawing me".

I knew that in choosing to go for sne i was accepting a lower winrate and higher variance. There were just too many times though where I'd be 3k hands into a long session, be annoyed that i was only up a buyin or something, and then start monkey forcing things/station it up and all the sudden im at 5k hands and down 8 buyins.

I'd say i'm a pretty self aware person. I know i'm not nanonko, or anything even close. I know i have tons of things to fix in my game, both fundamentally and emotionally. However, i firmly believe I'm capable of being a 1.5-3ptbb winner 20 tabling 100nl 6 max. And finally i'm taking concrete steps to move towards that reality. I've reviewed my sessions way more extensively, started watching videos again, and forced myself to think through spots while i'm playing and not just take the "lol standard" lines constantly.

I think when you look at the apex of NBA players, and you compare/contrast their games, their strengths and weaknesses, their attitudes and understanding of the game you realize that nobody is THAT much better than anybody else. You could (and i have) argue Kobe vs Lebron, Tim Duncan vs KG ad nasuem, but the reality is that they are all incredibly successful. They just go about their business in subtely different ways (LAG vs TAG as an oversimplified analogy). More than anything there are stylistic differences, and we as fans tend to latch onto those players whose talents are most congruent with the things we personally value. Ferocious competitiveness, pathological will to win, fundamentally flawless game forged from countless hours of repetitive practice-we take Kobe. Charismtic, athletically and visually stunning/freightening, innovative, actualizing the potential of his teamates and still leaving us waiting to see him tap into his whole potential-we choose LeBron.

My point in bringing this up, besides the fact that I just finished Bill Simmons' Book of Basketball, is this:

There is however a difference between the Kobe/Lebron's and the Vince Carter/T-Mac's. If you saw them in a pickup game they would all dominate, if you watched them go through shooting drills they would all be incredible proficient at their craft. But Kobe/Lebron will be talked about as two of the top players ever and Vince/TMac will be looked at as squandered potential that never won or excelled when it mattered.

Doing the little things right matters. And it matters a ton. Making a tough bet/fold on the river insead of just shrug calling. Consistently playing well in the blinds. Disguising and mixing up lines so that I'm not an open book to regs. Getting that extra 15bb value bet when im paying close attention. These are the differences between breaking even on my way to sne and winning at the type of rate I want to. These are the differences between the careers of Kobe/Lebron and Vince Carter/TMac.

I hope that ten months from now i look back and am proud of the year i had, knowing that i did everything i could to get the most out of myself while chasing elite, and not simply being another case of unactualized potential.

At 111k vpps and excited about poker for the first time in quite awhile.

[tclark828]

Originally Posted by steel108

Not meant to be a shortstacking rant:

I'm moving up in limits and WOW is all I can say. At 200NL, there is absolutely no reason why shortstackers and fullstack regs can't co-exist. It's annoying, but you can get SNE without ever having to sit down with a shortstacker. But, anything higher and I would say it's impossilbe. 400NL, you might, but it will be VERY hard. At 600NL+, it's simply not possible. The player pools are just too shallow. I could stay at 200NL for the year at Stars, make ~200k for the tables and 100k from SNE or I could move up and play in much better games at Full Tilt

This is a legit question. I'm 14 days ahead of pace for SNE right now and taking a break from Stars. I honestly have now idea what to do. SNE is a grind so I can't really move to Full Tilt and come back if I change my mind.

The games were the same way at FTP before they raised the min buy in, so thats why i came to stars... figured i might as well get SNE. Im pretty much hating that decision right now, but i do like the chasing of SNE. Its good for me because it forces me to play, I had gotten pretty lazy last year. I'll see how the year goes, but imo (not to start another debate), they have to do something sooner or later.

[unblemished]

I know a guy who ran ~60 buy-ins above ev full stacking 200NL for ~600k hands. Not going to out his screen name though.

SammyKid, what is your adjusted winrate (in bb/100) over your sample?

[unblemished]

Nice post mikey miz.

[Mickyb]

Originally Posted by TheTruthSpeaks

Thanks Needbeer.

Do any of you guys find it odd that no long-term winning players seem to run above EV on pokerstars? I mean just by sheer numbers it should be around 50/50, no?

Yes, probably. Although see MicroBob's pair vs high cards argument - it's not impossible that most winning players have a slight tendency to run below EV.

More likely, the ones who run above EV don't bother to tell anyone! At around the end of Jan, I asked my gf how she thought I was running compared to EV - she thought I must be well below when I was actually 25 mini buy-ins above, I just hadn't mentioned the sessions when I ran well! She also thought I'd been losing lots of money, lol.

I'm not yet within your definition of "high volume" - I've earnt less than 200k lifetime vpps - but FWIW I'm running a decent chunk above EV.

110k, downswing over it seems

[Rick Diesel]

Originally Posted by mikey miz

My point in bringing this up, besides the fact that I just finished Bill Simmons' Book of Basketball, is this:

There is however a difference between the Kobe/Lebron's and the Vince Carter/T-Mac's. If you saw them in a pickup game they would all dominate, if you watched them go through shooting drills they would all be incredible proficient at their craft. But Kobe/Lebron will be talked about as two of the top players ever and Vince/TMac will be looked at as squandered potential that never won or excelled when it mattered.

Doing the little things right matters. And it matters a ton. Making a tough bet/fold on the river insead of just shrug calling. Consistently playing well in the blinds. Disguising and mixing up lines so that I'm not an open book to regs. Getting that extra 15bb value bet when im paying close attention. These are the differences between breaking even on my way to sne and winning at the type of rate I want to. These are the differences between the careers of Kobe/Lebron and Vince Carter/TMac.

I read the book too, and I can't imagine why anyone would ever in any way think of Vince Carter and compare him to the other 3 guys. I understand teh TMac comparison, because he had all the skills, but Carter doesn't and never did.

edit: 33k vpps

[krmont22]

Originally Posted by Mickyb

More likely, the ones who run above EV don't bother to tell anyone!