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The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition
View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes
3,502 34.89%
No
5,607 55.86%
Undecided
929 9.25%

03-06-2017 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
The best way for you to prove your case is for a month to do an experiment, and update it in the blogging forum here.

For instance, you will play 100% VPIP and raise 100% of 3 gap off-suit hands, while folding JJ and QQ 100% of the time pre-flop.

After a month you will have a large enough sample (likely hundreds of examples or more) in your database of these hands to show how much you won with the 10 6 type hands, and how much you saved by folding the JJ and QQ type hands. If you make a fortune then you can name your system and charge others to learn it from you.

This is how you would prove your beliefs. Will you do this? Of course not, but that is why your random whine posts and cherry picked bad beat hands will be meaningless. Everyone can find a hand where their AA lost to a badly played trash hand, the key is to do hundreds of iterations and see what the results are in the end.

All the best.
I have done a bit of the work for him. This is a bottom 28% range that is going to be more profitable than the top 28%. It mostly includes offsuit gappers but for balancing purposes there is also some suited junk in there so people don't catch up with your strategy.

The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-06-2017 , 05:26 PM
What have i said and what did you understand...
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-06-2017 , 05:55 PM
My range obviously included the T4o and the 73o that you mentioned while also excluding aces and kings. I think this range is pretty accurate.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-06-2017 , 07:34 PM
For some reason adding the 83 suited on the chart is really funny to me. It certainly does work to balance it all out
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-06-2017 , 07:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzyana
What have i said
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzyana
The best way to play poker in 2017 is to re raise with 104 of,73 of and cards like that.Magic happens almost everytime you do that.Forget about aces,kings..it wont hold


Quote:
Originally Posted by suzyana
and what did you understand...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
I have done a bit of the work for him. This is a bottom 28% range that is going to be more profitable than the top 28%. It mostly includes offsuit gappers but for balancing purposes there is also some suited junk in there so people don't catch up with your strategy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
My range obviously included the T4o and the 73o that you mentioned while also excluding aces and kings. I think this range is pretty accurate.


Basically he helped you visualize your unique approach to winning poker. That graph came from your special insights on poker. Next step is for you to have the courage of your beliefs and actually follow your vision for huge wealth, so go out there and lets see that 100% pfr stat for hundreds of hands like 10 4 and 7 3 and other hands of that quality.

All the best.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-06-2017 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
Here is a link to the list

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=82127

and you can pick from whichever theories best suit your lifestyle.


All the best.
If there is an award for most thorough post and entertainment, this would be the hands down winner.

I love the titles you create....Quantum Entanglement, Deterministic Universe....

Pretty damn funny stuff in that post.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 12:02 AM
10years and counting in the riggie thread, your brain would muster up some beautes too, even if by accident
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 01:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
Your stuff has been beginner riggie material so far, but if you want to see what a longer term riggie lifestyle represents, you can simply look at this thread. The guy who just recently said that AA and KK lose but hands like 10 6 crush, or the person who screamed about million dollar prop bets that he could predict the future.

You are an early stage riggie, and having a bit of fun with it, but be careful as the condition can advance and people like that represent the later stages of a riggie lifestyle.
good man; sure hope i don't end up a full blown riggie! not sure if suzyana had advocated this playing style before but I didn't think his/her post from a couple of days ago was serious. it seemed more like a rant type post from somebody on a bad run with big hands.
you guys sure made a meal of it though!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
The fact that we agree it would have been leaked by now by someone, yet has not yet, makes this a bit of a moot debate, but how about you think through a simple example

You are in a tournament at a Holdem tournament table with 8 other players who have the following classification

1) You - fill in how you classify yourself
2) Hard core tournament pro
3) Casual Razz cash player, though a good one trying some NL tournaments
4) Player who plays 2 days a week casually but has reasonable stats
5) A player who loses a ton in Omaha cash games but does ok in Holdem tournaments. Net he is down tens of thousands of dollars lifetime due to Omaha cash.
6) A player who has played 5,000+ tournaments but is a healthy loser except for a bink that offset most of the losses
7) Another hard core reg, not as good as player 2
8) A total donk. Does not play a lot, often plays drunk. Plays in a totally random manner
9) A reg who crushed until 2014 and has been break even since.

Now, you show me an example of a hand that is created that will have everyone act as they expect and move chips from the bad players to the good ones.
well players can be ranked and classified based on specific stats. I haven't used poker software myself so I wont know all that is possible but i know for instance vpip is a measure of how lose a player is; how often is a player stealing blinds; amount of good calls vs bad calls (is the player a calling station) etc... also an important factor would be how much you have in your balance since they wouldn't want anybody to get broke so the software can adapt tot his too.

in ur example player 8 will be on the verge of going broke after a period of playing his drunk random style and somebody like 2 or 7 should be a winning player. Lets say at 8 or 7 handed 8 moves all in from early position with 20 bigs with Kj off which is characteristic of his bad play and gets called by 2 with 35 bigs in CO with AK suited. this would be a good candidate hand for outcome to be swayed in favor of 8.

this hand just in from a cash game on ignition. 6 max nl.
limper utg i raise it to 4x with QQ in mp. SB makes it 3X my raise. BB cold calls that 12BB raise. initial limper folds. i go all in for around 52 BBs. re raiser in SB puts in 50 more BBs to try to sgueeze out the BB out but he still calls for more than what i shoved!!
me:QQ
SB:AQ
BB:7 fkn 5 !!!

flop JJ9 no flush draws for anybody. turn 8 and river naturally a 6.
****** with 75 scoops the pot after cold calling 12BB 3 bet raise and 100BB 5 bet re raise! he then utters i was trying to lose to go watch my show.

there u have it; horrible play getting rewarded. exactly the type fish who is supposed to lose his balance in hours wins a big pot where i was in a big +EV situation.

i have taken a look at spadebidder (not all analysis made) and while some of the data is interesting its not even scratching the surface and not looking for correlations between certain situations like this one and possible irregularities. its simply testing the RNG by looking at a large sample of random hands. the first section is also only heads up hands.

not sure if thats all type of analysis that's been made but it definitely doesn't refute anything in terms of outcome of certain big hands being swayed and potentially certain accounts being targeted.

somebody is gonna come and tell me he had X% chance to win so what.i know he does and i know its very little and i had the ****** crushed (as well as the donk in the SB) and any theory is not gonna be proven by the outcome of one hand. but the examples are aplenty and there s definitely trends i notice.

Last edited by Mike Haven; 03-08-2017 at 07:15 PM. Reason: 2 posts merged
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 06:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
somebody is gonna come and tell me he had X% chance to win so what.i know he does and i know its very little and i had the ****** crushed (as well as the donk in the SB)
Round figures:

Looking at the long run, if this same hand was played 40 times, your QQ would win 22 times, the AQo would win 11 times, and the 75o would win 7 times.

Juggling these figures a bit, if this same hand was played only 6 times, your QQ would win 3 times, the AQo would win once or twice, and the 75o would win once.

Hardly a bad beat.

You can't look at games individually after they've occurred and cherry-pick ones where you "crushed" one of the hands in the game and deduce anything except that if the player is going to play 75o regularly he is going to lose a fortune to you in the long run. You should watch his play against you and others whenever you can, and make a note to play against him whenever you can. He might even turn out to be another suzyana and make you your fortune, even if he wins his due one hand in six.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 06:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
somebody is gonna come and tell me he had X% chance to win so what.
What would be the point? A few days ago, it was this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
today any doubts i had with regards to ignition not being rigged are gone.
Then a couple of days later, it was this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
i don't have strong convictions/ beliefs that any rig is there.
And now you're back to steaming over a bad beat that wasn't even a bad beat. Again.

My suggestion would be to pick up a book or two on poker mindset/psychology, but it's probably a waste of my typing.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 07:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Haven
Round figures:

Looking at the long run, if this same hand was played 40 times, your QQ would win 22 times, the AQo would win 11 times, and the 75o would win 7 times.
there he is! the man with the numbers!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Haven
Juggling these figures a bit, if this same hand was played only 6 times, your QQ would win 3 times, the AQo would win once or twice, and the 75o would win once.

Hardly a bad beat.
what the **** is a bad beat then if 75 beating QQ all in is not ?!?! ok the fact that there is another donkey with AQ in there makes me not the 80% favorite to win against 75 alone but to say this is not a bad beat is just plain stupid.

either way, he played beyond horrible. calling my initial 4bb raise would have been bad enough but he called a 12BB raise and then 2 all ins over the top eventually committing around 60BB with garbage. the guy is a ******ed fish and thats what in my opinion the software can adapt to . he probably does this in other instances and even in a one off the software can obviously detect who has the highest equity which is obviously my hand and sway results in a big pot (160BB effective to me).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Haven
You can't look at games individually after they've occurred and cherry-pick ones where you "crushed" one of the hands in the game and deduce anything except that if the player is going to play 75o regularly he is going to lose a fortune to you in the long run. You should watch his play against you and others whenever you can, and make a note to play against him whenever you can. He might even turn out to be another suzyana and make you your fortune, even if he wins his due one hand in six.
this is online and anonymous. watch him play ? what are u talking about ? cherry pick ? in the same session i lost with AK vs AK all in runner runner flush. and another donkey shoved all in over my 3 bet with K ****n Q and he cracked my jacks. ( don't bother with the numbers ; he is still a ****** and a clueless fish) and the list goes on.

Last edited by Mike Haven; 03-07-2017 at 08:46 AM.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 07:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
What would be the point? A few days ago, it was this:

Then a couple of days later, it was this:


And now you're back to steaming over a bad beat that wasn't even a bad beat. Again.
can u please give me an example of a bad beat then ? AA vs 72 is just around 7% off from what QQ vs 75 is. wake up buddy; you don't know what u are talking about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
My suggestion would be to pick up a book or two on poker mindset/psychology, but it's probably a waste of my typing.
my mindset is fine. what s screwed up is my luck or ignition. i glanced at spadebidder and the type of analysis made proves absolutely nothing. so yeah until i see concrete proof and thorough analysis on data from different angles i wont be convinced.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
hope i don't end up a full blown riggie!
Well...

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
i glanced at spadebidder and the type of analysis made proves absolutely nothing. so yeah until i see concrete proof and thorough analysis on data from different angles i wont be convinced.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
I haven't used poker software myself so I wont know all that is possible but i know
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
this hand just in from a cash game on ignition
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
tsomebody is gonna come and tell me he had X% chance to win so what.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
what are u talking about ? cherry pick ? in the same session i lost with AK vs AK all in runner runner flush.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
my mindset is fine. what s screwed up is my luck or ignition.

Congratulations on the progression to full riggie. Now as a full riggie you will hopefully come up with something innovative to make the list, as to date you have just been a mix of standard beginner mundane riggie beliefs. I would suggest something fresh like mind control or a humidity based rig. Be creative, not just a standard low stakes whiner who uses no tracking software (and ignores its power) that whines about a couple standard boring low stakes hands. Plenty of riggies like that - take this chance to stand out!

All the best.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 09:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
what the **** is a bad beat then if 75 beating QQ all in is not ?!?! ok the fact that there is another donkey with AQ in there makes me not the 80% favorite to win against 75 alone but to say this is not a bad beat is just plain stupid.
If the AQo had won, would you have even been surprised? He was in the AIPF hand, too, so what's the difference? You were only evens to win that hand as it was played, so you were evens to lose the hand to one or other of your opponents - which one is irrelevant.

If they had both had 75o, you could probably call that a bad beat - if you're the type of player who likes to bore everyone with stories about the hands they lost.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 09:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
this hand just in from a cash game on ignition. 6 max nl.
limper utg i raise it to 4x with QQ in mp. SB makes it 3X my raise. BB cold calls that 12BB raise. initial limper folds. i go all in for around 52 BBs. re raiser in SB puts in 50 more BBs to try to sgueeze out the BB out but he still calls for more than what i shoved!!
me:QQ
SB:AQ
BB:7 fkn 5 !!!
...
.i know he does and i know its very little and i had the ****** crushed (as well as the donk in the SB) and any theory is not gonna be proven by the outcome of one hand. but the examples are aplenty and there s definitely trends i notice.
You were only 53% to win this hand when the money went in. This isn't even a noteworthy loss, much less a bad beat.


Hand 0: 53.193% { QQ }
Hand 1: 28.018% { AQs, AQo }
Hand 2: 18.789% { 75s, 75o }
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
there u have it; horrible play getting rewarded. exactly the type fish who is supposed to lose his balance in hours wins a big pot where i was in a big +EV situation.
Then take advantage of the rig you've uncovered instead of boring us all to death with your whining.
Quote:
i have taken a look at spadebidder (not all analysis made) and while some of the data is interesting its not even scratching the surface and not looking for correlations between certain situations like this one and possible irregularities. its simply testing the RNG by looking at a large sample of random hands.
...which is how you check an RNG, not by playing the "Well what if the site rigs it for guys who eat grilled cheese sandwiches for dinner on Tuesdays?!!?" or whatever other stupid, stupid, stupid (seriously, every rig theory in this thread has been unbelievably stupid) "theory" you want to test.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy
You were only 53% to win this hand when the money went in. This isn't even a noteworthy loss, much less a bad beat.


Hand 0: 53.193% { QQ }
Hand 1: 28.018% { AQs, AQo }
Hand 2: 18.789% { 75s, 75o }
Rigtards in a nutshell, don't even understand basic ****ing stats and cherry pick points in the hand where they were massive favorites as evidence of a horrid beat when in reality their hand is BORING as **** and something any grinder sees 10 of per day.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
there he is! the man with the numbers!



what the **** is a bad beat then if 75 beating QQ all in is not ?!?! ok the fact that there is another donkey with AQ in there makes me not the 80% favorite to win against 75 alone but to say this is not a bad beat is just plain stupid.

either way, he played beyond horrible. calling my initial 4bb raise would have been bad enough but he called a 12BB raise and then 2 all ins over the top eventually committing around 60BB with garbage. the guy is a ******ed fish and thats what in my opinion the software can adapt to . he probably does this in other instances and even in a one off the software can obviously detect who has the highest equity which is obviously my hand and sway results in a big pot (160BB effective to me).



this is online and anonymous. watch him play ? what are u talking about ? cherry pick ? in the same session i lost with AK vs AK all in runner runner flush. and another donkey shoved all in over my 3 bet with K ****n Q and he cracked my jacks. ( don't bother with the numbers ; he is still a ****** and a clueless fish) and the list goes on.
Preflop is a total gamble and really frustrating when that happens, but how would this make you fee.... if Q/Q vs 7/5 into a flop with flopping Q/J/3. You check, they donkey shove, and you start smiling and doing a funky dance as you happily call and you sheen with how well you played that hand. The turn is a 4 and rivers a 6. I think that would be a serious bad beat and the likely reason I have to plug in a brand new keyboard.

For the record, I will admit to occasionally raising/calling in poor position with some power house hand like 2/3 off and hit a monster flop. Someone that looks at my overall stats would see I am pretty much a textbook nit/TAG. I have no choice but to play utterly stupid hands otherwise I become to readable.

I will say I offset those donkey 2/3 off 3-bet calls with the bluff into quads or straight flush hands. Sometimes you win with hands you should never have been in and other times you lose with hands that have a 90% advantage on the flop. The losing hands that send you into the tiltosphere are the ones that stick in your mind.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
what the **** is a bad beat then if 75 beating QQ all in is not ?!?!
The hand was not QQ against 75. It was QQ against 75 and AQ. You had to beat 2 hands. And you were just about a coin flip in that situation. If one more hand had called, you would have been a big dog in the hand.

Just the fact that you continue to make this argument means facts don't matter much to you, or probabilities, or anything. You just want to whine about your QQ losing in a coin flip.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 02:34 PM
And another riggie loses it.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
can u please give me an example of a bad beat then ? AA vs 72 is just around 7% off from what QQ vs 75 is. wake up buddy; you don't know what u are talking about.
Most people would consider a bad beat to be a hand where you were a big favourite, and lost. Losing a coin flip isn't a bad beat, and I don't know why you're carrying on about what QQ vs 75 is, because that doesn't correctly describe the situation you're whining about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
my mindset is fine.
Clearly it isn't. Even if that hand was a bad beat, for you to be going off the rails about one hand is a pretty clear demonstration of that. Oh yes, I know it happens to you "all the time".

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
i glanced at spadebidder and the type of analysis made proves absolutely nothing.
Supporting my earlier comment about how difficult it would be to prove a negative.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
so yeah until i see concrete proof and thorough analysis on data from different angles i wont be convinced.
So you have no proper statistical proof that it's rigged, but until someone can provide proper statistical proof to you that it isn't rigged, you'll believe it is.

Time to quit online poker, then. But this is again a waste of my typing.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy
You were only 53% to win this hand when the money went in. This isn't even a noteworthy loss, much less a bad beat.


Hand 0: 53.193% { QQ }
Hand 1: 28.018% { AQs, AQo }
Hand 2: 18.789% { 75s, 75o }
53 % vs 18 % ; I am still more than twice more likely to win the hand that the ****tard . why aren't u able to understand this ? this is a significant advantage for any hand against another in holdem. still its the worst hand that wins. This is some thing i have noticed a lot the bigger the hand is and the more money is involved.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy
The hand was not QQ against 75. It was QQ against 75 and AQ. You had to beat 2 hands. And you were just about a coin flip in that situation. If one more hand had called, you would have been a big dog in the hand.

Just the fact that you continue to make this argument means facts don't matter much to you, or probabilities, or anything. You just want to whine about your QQ losing in a coin flip.
lets look at it from the perspective of 75. was he in a coinflip?! i dont think so . I rest my case.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Obvious Shill Alt
Then take advantage of the rig you've uncovered instead of boring us all to death with your whining.
not a ****** and not able to play like one. thank you very much for the advice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obvious Shill Alt
...which is how you check an RNG, not by playing the "Well what if the site rigs it for guys who eat grilled cheese sandwiches for dinner on Tuesdays?!!?" or whatever other stupid, stupid, stupid (seriously, every rig theory in this thread has been unbelievably stupid) "theory" you want to test.
showing great understanding of ****ing stats here.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
53 % vs 18 % ; I am still more than twice more likely to win the hand that the ****tard . why aren't u able to understand this ? this is a significant advantage for any hand against another in holdem. still its the worst hand that wins. This is some thing i have noticed a lot the bigger the hand is and the more money is involved.
Do like that suzana then and play the worst hands for riches, since it is something you noticed. Do not whine about it - exploit it for millions. Riggies really hate money.

Sad because I am trying to help you escalate your riggie game, but you are going to be a standard level 1 riggie that whines then vanishes. You have not yet said a single thing that is creative in the riggie universe. You are a bad, low quality riggie. Work on your game, all kinds, or else you will be gone and forgotten by this weekend like many level 1 riggies before you.

All the best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
still its the worst hand that wins. This is some thing i have noticed a lot the bigger the hand is and the more money is involved.
Seems in your world, with your beliefs, that the guy shoving with 75 would be doing the correct play.

If the worst hand wins way too many times, and you see that rig with your own eyes (despite no tracking software), then why are you not exploiting it for money? When you see a raise 3 bet and 4 bet pre-flop and you are staring at 84o in the BB you know it will be a big pot, and you have the worst hand. Time to shove all-in! Cha ching, money machine as long as your beliefs are true.

All the best.

Last edited by Mike Haven; 03-08-2017 at 07:14 PM. Reason: 2 posts merged
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2017 , 05:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81
[Abuse deleted] who shoved with 75
It was a call, not a shove. In any case 75o falls in the range that I constructed (figure 1) that exploits the "trash hand ******s always win" rig. Note that 75s has too much equity and needs to be folded.

So far the range I suggest includes the previously named trash like T5o and 83o and now another datapoint (75o) also fits the theory. In all cases the trash hand wins. I think up till this point I have the single best hypothesis ever suggested in this thread backed up with data provided by the actual rigtards.


Figure 1: range to exploit rig

Actually I would really like someone to try this out for me. Play this range for 10k hands at 2NL and figure out the winrate for these hands. I realize that it is best you play this against strong ranges like KK+ so I would suggest 100% VPIP against 4bets, a balanced 66% against 3bets and use it as value 3bets against UTG opens only. Fold in all other cases. Also make sure to also always play KK+ so that you can confirm within the same sample that those hands are losers.

Last edited by Mike Haven; 03-07-2017 at 08:18 PM.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote

      
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