Quote:
Originally Posted by IvIrBagel
Almost every time I play on Bovada I just can't believe how many miracle river cards save either myself or my opponent. Almost every time I get it in good on the turn with a straight or big hand, the other guy hits his river card to complete a better hand even though I had them beat on the turn. I recognize when I suck out too on the river when behind and hit a miracle card. It's not a matter of me just remembering my bad beats.. I can see the same happening for other players all too often. Every big hand is thrown off by a bigger hand that only makes it on the river. I am not saying this is proof of rigged games, but it just never seems to be good enough to have a very strong hand since you have a high chance of being sucked out on.
It's also strange I go on patterns for a few weeks/days where I get stronger hands and am hitting the flop with trips/flushes/straights like it's nothing. Then I will go for days/weeks of rubbish hands and never hitting the flop. Almost never see anything in between. I'm either running hot or cold.
This is pretty much exactly my experience as well. The part which really caught my eye was in your previous post where you say you had to rage quit... AGAIN. This is how it ends up with me as well, I start out giving it all the benefit of the doubt, just chilling and going with the cards/bluff/people whatever, but no matter what you do (aside from perma-fold) there will just be hand after hand of either zero flops or miracle flops, to which the river cards flips the deck waaay to much for rational play.
I'm pretty old-school. I used to get to grips with the bonkers nature of Hold'em by just dealing out cards on a table and seeing which hand won, all very low tech and labour intensive, but a lot of fun. By doing this you can very quickly see how practically any hand can win over any other hand (7 2 off versus AA, for example) and how good/bad luck streaks happen even when there's no players.
The difference between the above method and reality is that in reality a vast number of those hands wont go into the pot. Of a table of 10 players you normally get at least 50% folds, of those that stick around to see the flop, another batch fold on seeing the flop. Etc. So, in reality, the likelyhood of the 7 2 off beating the aces is much rarer than the statistical likelyhood, because most people will have folded that hand.
Internet poker teaches people to stick it out to the river though, because, like you and me, we see rivers flipping hands... every single day. That means everyone else is seeing it too. And statistically the river can have the likelyhood of flipping hands, but what marks out the internet poker software is the sheer frequency of its occurrence, and often in very 'tilting' ways.
Like you it's not all about me, I observe it from all hands on the table. Some guy will be dumping money after the flop and it'll be obvious you'll need a hand to go against it. Some guy keeps calling, probably looking for the flush or gut-shot or whatever, but all of a sudden the second guy is raising even though the flush hasn't landed. When they turn over the lead had Ace Queen with a Queen high flop and the other guy's 'rivered it' with the two river cards being 9 5 to his 9 5 in his hand or whatever.
And what makes it so jarringly noticeable is that these statistical improbabilities, very often 5% rivers, will be coming at 3 or 4 per hour, and not just that they come so frequently, but they come to the chaser when there's only two hands left after everyone else has folded after the flop, and, on top of this, the chaser usually has diddly squat until the rivers start turning.
Bad Beats are remarkable because there's something quasi-unjust about them, that's why they have their nickname whereas other types of wins/loses don't. Another version of the term might be Sucking Out. It's kind of like when a tennis player hits the net and the ball dribbles over the net making the reply impossible - the winning player apologises to the loser because it was a bit of a Bad Beat. But just spending an hour in an on-line poker room and you'll see Bad Beat after Bad Beat after Bad Beat until you can't rationalise it anymore - and rage quit. Or 'Tilt' as the in-word probably is.
As per usual it's very difficult to put into actual words, and so easy for the nay sayers to say any ol' rubbish to refute the 'superstition' or whatever today's buzzword is, but the fact that I can read your post and know exactly what you're talking about without even knowing the full details of each and every hand nor how long you were playing or any etc is, for me, proof enough that it's all at least a bit fishy.
Last edited by Dingbatty; 07-30-2016 at 04:30 PM.